Success rates for GM Cuirass/Greaves?

[Grants]

Made GM BPx2 with 1 failure.
Made GM legsx1 with no failures
Made GM Wristsx1 with no failures.
skill = 272 + 15% + AA3 + Salvage

[Luvimt]

300, +15%mod, BSmastery2, salvage2
GM bp 4/5
GM legs 3/8
GM bracer 2/3

[Xulan]

Here are my latest data sets. Granted the tailoring set is small, but the result is consistent with other people who have either 300ish skill + mastery 2 or less, or people with 250ish skill and mastery 3.


Smithing skill 300 + 5% = 315 w/ Mastery 3
GM Armor: 34/62 = 55%
GM Symbols: 38/64 = 59%

Tailoring skill 257 + 5% = 269 w/ Mastery 3
GM Symbols: 21/24 = 88%
(no armor due to rarity of coarse spider silk)

bp, leg and arm combines make up at least half of the combines for all 3 data sets.

I don't even attempt smithed symbols anymore. The entrepreneur in me has won out over my desire to be a Master Artisan. I actually worry that I will get a skill increase on a combine now.

I still firmly believe that at least one of the following are true:

a) There is a bug with ~300 skill + mastery 3 resulting in lower success
b) There is a success cap that isn't kicking in correctly with some combinations of skill & mastery
c) There is a bug with ~250 skill + mastery 3 resulting in higher success

EDIT: adjusted my data, there was an error

[Karim]

I am happy

4 sets - 2 war , 2 sham bst

1 fail, but salvaged all but the store bought ore, succeeded on the re-combine

Shaman Ogre - 300 skill, all AA

-Karim

[jonni]

failed failed failed failed ........

smithing 290 - 304 with geerlok - BS mastery 3
regularly make GM gear without issue but i have just failed 7 chest symbols in a row, 3 different zones so i took the geerlok out and succeeded - any news on the BS mastery being bugged??

[Xulan]

Here is my current data.

GM Tailoring:
Skill 253 to 268 w/mastery 3
(I can't stop skilling-up with the new bonus, got 2 imps my last 2 combines and get about an imp a day since patch)
(no armor since there is no coarse spider silk available to me)

Symbols
=======
BP Symb: 10/14
Leg Symb: 10/12
Sleeve Symb: 8/8
Helm Symb: 8/8
Boot symb: 5/7
Glove Symb: 6/6
Wrist Symb: 12/14

59/69 = 85.5% success


GM Smithing:
Skill 297 to 300 w/mastery 3

Armor
=====
BP: 13/21
Legs: 11/23
Arms: 6/10
Helm: 7/9
Boots: 5/7
Gloves: 4/4
Wrists: 9/11

55/85 = 64.7% success

Symbols
=======
BP Symbol: 15/25
Leg Symbol: 7/10
Arm Symbol: 5/13
Helm symbol 5/9
Boot Symbol: 4/6
Gloves symbol: 1/1
Wrist symbol: 3/3

40/67 = 59.7% success

I know the data sets aren't perfect for comparisson due to not having equal amounts of attempts on each slot, but I have seen similar high success rates posted with:

- lower skill + mastery 3 (my tailoring, though it's getting higher =/)
OR
- higher skill + mastery 2

I have also seen 2 other lower success rate data sets (100+ gm combines on eqtraders) pretty much equal to my smithing (~60%) with high skill + mastery 3. If it was just me, that is one thing, but the fact others have experienced similar makes me believe this is not a wild rng thing. I just talked to another person a couple weeks ago who has 80%+ success and I asked skill and mastery and it was high + mastery 2, which fits the bill.

Btw, I have not yet seen one decent data set that disproves this. All larger data sets I have seen support this. If you have a contrary or supporting data, then please post.

[Bumkus]

I hate to post, because this is totally based on recollection. I believe I am running about 60% at 265 tailoring + 5% = 278 + mastery 3. Maybe 20 combines all together. I know I had a run of 2 for 6, another for 4 for 6 and most recently got 2 fo 2 on a mix of different trivs.

I do not like doing combines. I haven't tried leaving off the +5% needle to see if i get a better result. Eventually I will try to get my BP and Leggings, but really not looking forward to those combines.

I will do combines gladly if someone supplies the ingredients, but I would prefer that they ask someone else if they are looking for me to provide finished goods.

[Aurora]

Updated data set for GM combines

Here are my success rates on Human GM armor and GM augments with Blacksmithing Mastery 3, with a modifed skill between 304-307 (raw 290-293), updated from my previous post on this thread:

Armor:
BPs: 14/19
Legs: 10/20
Sleeves: 6/7
Gloves: 3/4
Boots: 5/7
Helm: 2/3
Bracers: 6/7

Total 386 trivial: 24/39 = 61.5%
Total below 386 trivial: 22/28 = 78.6%
Total all trivials: 46/67 = 68.6%

Augments:
BPs: 21/36
Legs: 12/17
Sleeves: 6/8
Gloves: 2/3
Boots: 4/6
Helm: 2/2
Bracers: 5/5

Total 386 trivial: 33/53 = 62.2%
Total below 386 trivial: 19/24 = 79.2%
Total all trivials: 52/77 = 67.5%

Armor + Symbol 386 trivial success rate combined: 57/92 = 62%
Armor + Symbol below 386 trivial success rate combined: 41/52 = 78.8%
Armor + Symbol all trivials success rate combined: 98/144 = 68%

This is a large enough sample that I think I can safely predict my success rate will continue to be around 60% on 386 trivial combines.

[Spoogy]

ok here are my success rates.

legs 10 tries 6 success, ~66,7% trivial 386
bp 12 tries 6 success, 50% trivial 386
sleeves 5 tries 4 succes, 80% trivial 368
gloves 9 tries 7 success, ~77,78 trivial 334
boots 2 tries 2 success, 100% trivial 334
helm 9 tries 7 success, ~77,78% trivial 334
wrist 10 tries 7 success, 70% trivial 316

highelf, 15% mod, salvage3, master3
skill modified, increasing since first try from like 280
to 315 now.

note quite happy with the rate but it scales reasonable and numbers are to low to make a valid result.

if i wanna have some really worse succes rates i would elaborate the numbers for black gold inlay combines.


how i collected the data.

since i cant remember exactly i looked into bank and found

11 molds for legs
8 molds for bp.
30 molds for wrist
11 molds for gloves
18 molds for boots
11 molds for helms and
15 molds for sleeves.

now i only remember one time when i got a mold from a bp or leg try returned by salvage (i was so mad so i remember that)
its accurate enough to assume i got

10 tries on legs (1 salvage)
12 on bp
10 on wrist
9 on gloves
2 on boots
9 on helms and
5 on sleeves

i then looked into my bazaar mule salary logs.
sold
5 legs
3 bp
6 wrist
5 gloves
5 helms
2 sleeves

adding the stuff i made for my 2 high elf plate user guild mates and stuff i have still on trader makes it

[Vidyne]

Seeing about a 60% success rate with 279 raw skill and mastery3, + a 10% mod.


This is on Chest and Legs.
Havent failed hardly any arms/gloves/wrists/boots/heads

[Uuvin]

finally did some more GM symbols. I am 296 tailor with mastery 3 and salvage 3 and 5% mod. well was 296.

wrist success
wrist success
boots success
gloves success skill up ( 297)
sleeves success

From previous attempts on GM symbols ( missing patterns and known successes)

3 bp tries ( 2 success)
2 legs ( 1 success)
1 boots ( success)
1 sleeves ( success)

but those 7 tries were smithing. I am 300 smith mastery 3 salvage 3 for those with 5% mod.

I also went 1 for 2 on actual BP.

[Brael]

300 Smithing, Mastery 3, 15% mod

Chest - 10/17
Legs - 11/12
Wrists - 9/10
Arms - 9/14
Helm - 4/4
Boots - 3/4
Hands - 8/10

Total 54/71 - 76.06%

[Xulan]

I don't like to post in multiple places, but since this pertains here:

Here are my success rates sorted by trivial over 389 attempts (been wanting go through this for a while, so now is good):

All are with mastery 3. Smithing skill was always 297+. Tailoring was anywhere from 253 to 296 (yes it's a big gap, but I haven't seen much variation in success which means that I probably hit the cap at or close to 253 + 5% = 265 mod skill). I have not been using a skill mod item for the past month and have been enjoying good success rates. Again, most likely due to hitting the caps w/ mastery 3.

All GM armor/symbols
386 Trivial Items (bp & legs)
- smithed bp: 13/21
- smithed legs: 12/24
- smithed bp sym: 15/25
- smithed leg sym: 7/10
- tailored bp sym: 24/34
- tailored leg sym: 27/41

armor: 25/45 = 55.6%
symbols: 73/110 = 66.4%
both: 98/155 = 63.2%


368 Trivial Items (sleeves)
- smithed sleeves: 9/13
- smithed sleeve sym: 6/14 (lots of hate for me =)
- tailored sleeve sym: 30/36

armor: 9/13 = 69.2%
symbols: 36/50 = 72%
both: 45/63 = 71.4%


334 Trivial Items (helm, boots, gloves)
- smithed helm: 7/9
- smithed boots: 6/8
- smithed gloves: 5/5
- smithed helm sym: 5/9
- smithed boots sym: 5/7
- smithed gloves sym: 2/2
- tailored helm sym: 21/24
- tailored boots sym: 21/27
- tailored gloves sym: 21/22

armor: 18/22 = 81.8%
symbols: 75/91 = 82.4%
both: 93/113 = 82.3%


316 Trivial Items (wrists)
- smithed wrists: 11/13
- smithed wrist sym: 5/5
- tailored wrist sym: 35/40

armor: 11/13 = 84.6%
symbols: 40/45 = 88.9%
both: 51/58 = 87.9%


Hypothesis
The success caps on GM armor are:
386 trivial items = ~60% (my rate is 63.2% in 155 attempts)
368 trivial items = ~70% (my rate is 71.4% in 63 attempts)
334 trivial items = ~80% (my rate is 82.3% in 113 attempts)
316 trivial items = ~90% (my rate is 87.9% in 58 attempts)

Interestingly, 250 skill + 5% item + mastery 3 (262 modified) gets one very close to these numbers. It may be that the success cap is based off of this skill level + mastery 3. Calc shows (with 250 + 5% + mastery 3):

386 trivial item = 62%
368 trivial item = 68.75%
334 trivial item = 81.5%
316 trivial item = 88.25%

[drtyaty]

300 Erudite Smithing Results

Let me tell you, I am extremely dissatisfied.

Upon reaching 300 today with a mod of 315 I immediately attempted the following:

1/3 Arms
0/1 Legs
1/2 Boot

What complete and utter B.S. I had 9 drake scales saved up to enable me to make what I thought would be several items, some of which I was going to use myself. 6 Drake Scales down the toilet at 20K a piece. Poofed 120K.

I'm sorry, but I did not go through thousands of combines costing over 200k to lose another 120K on finals.

I think SOE needs to examine this.

Forgot to add that I am 315 modified (300 raw) aax3 and salvage x2

[Wyvernwill]

Unfortunately, SoE has no bearing on the Tradeskill markets.

The fact that MDS cost you 20k (35k on my server), is a player base issue of people gouging tradeskillers for every cp they will pay. If more MDS drop, for a very short interim, yes, you will have more scales and make more armor, however when the demand for the armor dies off, your prices will fall down back around to the same percentage of difference.

In the end, you may spend a bit less, but you make a lot less profit in the long run.

Increasing the drop rate would do more damage than good imo, but then again, I have done enough creators/history/nest missions to make a few suits over... They are rare, but not at all impossible to come by.