Success rates for GM Cuirass/Greaves?

[Angelsyn]

Well, I failed a BP combine last weekend, but succeeded in the follow-up try.

So that's something like 5/6 success rate on BPs, 3/3 on Greaves.

[Dutchy]

more data

Sounds like I've been pretty lucky so far, as for 300skill + mastery actually reducing the succes chance... I seem to be having much better luck at maxxed skill with mastery than at a close to 300 skill with mastery. *edit* my smithing succes rate used to be 90% and tailoring with 73% was a lot below it. After a few rows of smithing failures (on sleeves) things have equalled out more..... and a couple of more tailoring failures added just totally messed up my succes rate *sigh*

*EDIT: Updated with more data and succes rate per trivial. For some odd reason I have the most problems creating the sleeves, below 60% succes on those while the Chests/Legs are succeeding more than 70% and the other pieces around 80%*

300/315 smith, Mastery 2, Salvage 2 (Human Plate/Chain GM gear)
19/23 on BP
10/13 on Legs
13/14 on gloves
12/25 on Arms
9/9 on Helm
21/24 on Wrists
9/11 on Boots
(91/117 total, salvaged 9 Metallic Drakescale precombines from failures)
78% succes


280/294 Tailoring with Mastery 1 + Salvage 2 (Human Leather GM gear)
2/3 on BP
1/2 on Legs
3/4 on Sleeves
2/2 on Wrists
1/2 on Gloves
1/1 on Boots
1/1 on Helm
(11/15 total, salvaged 1 GM swatch + pattern on a failed sleeve combine)
73% Succes

300/315 Tailoring with Mastery 2 + Salvage 2 (Human Leather/Silk GM Gear)
10/14 on BP
7/16 on Legs
8/10 on Boots
6/9 on Helm
5/7 on Gloves
5/6 on Sleeves
13/18 on Wrists
(54/80 total, salvaged 9 Glossy Drake Hide precombines from failures)
68% Succes

268/289 Tailoring + Salvage 3 (Wood Elf Leather Gear)
2/8 on BP
0/0 on Legs
1/1 on Boots
1/1 on Helm
1/2 on Gloves
2/6 on Sleeves
3/3 on Wrists
(10/21 total, salvaged 5 Glossy Drake Hide precombine fom failures)
48% Succes

276/289 Smith (Wood Elf Plate/Chain GM gear)
4/11 on BP
4/9 on Legs
4/4 on Boots
5/8 on Helm
6/7 on gloves
4/10 on Arms
9/14 on Wrists
(36/63 total)
57% succes

300/336 Smith + salvage 3 (Wood Elf Chain/Plate Gear)
3/6 on BP
1/1 on Legs
0/0 on Boots
2/2 on Helm
3/3 on Gloves
1/1 on Arms
4/4 on Wrists
(14/17 total, salvaged 4 Metallic Drakescale precombines from failures)
82% Succes

283/297 Smith with Salvage 1 (Symbols)
13/16 on BP
12/19 on Legs
14/19 on Boots
14/19 on Helm
13/16 on Gloves
13/19 on Sleeves
32/38 on Wrists
(112/147 total, Salvaged 3 MDS on failures)
76% succes

300/336 Smith with Salvage 3 (Symbols)
13/27 on BP
14/22 on Legs
14/20 on Boots
16/19 on Helm
18/25 on Gloves
26/34 on Sleeves
38/46 on Wrists
(139/193 total, Salvaged 5 MDS on failures)
72% succes

Succes rate per piece so far (total):
66/108 on BP = 61%
49/82 on Legs = 60%
51/66 on Boots = 77%
54/68 on Helm = 79%
60/76 on Gloves = 79%
66/105 on Arms = 63%
110/134 on Wrists = 82%
456/639 = 71% succes average

Succes rate per trivial so far (total):
386: 115/190 = 61%
368: 65/104 = 63%
334: 164/209 = 78%
316: 121/148 = 82%
456/639 = 71% succes average.

Succes rate per trivial so far with 300/315+ skill:
386: 60/90 = 67%
368: 28/45 = 62%
334: 79/96 = 82%
316: 76/92 = 83%
243/323 = 75% succes average.

Okay.... the sleeve combines with the 368 triv are absolute killers for my succes rate it seems =(


P.S. I only counted my actual GM attempts, and not the precombines since those have a much lower trivial than the actual gear. So far I have lost 14 Metallic Drake Scales + 8 Glossy Drake Hides trying to make 'm into GM Bars/Swatches, no luck on salvaging them.

[Aurora]

Success rates

Here's my success rates on Human GM armor and GM augments with Mastery 3:

Modified skill of 305 | 306:

Armor:
BPs: 10/14 | 2/3
Legs: 5/7 | 4/10
Sleeves: 1/1 | 1/2
Gloves: 1/1 | 1/1
Boots: 2/4
Bracers: 2/3

Total 386 trivial: 21/34 = 62%


Augments:
BPs: 14/23 | 5/11
Legs: 4/6 | 6/8
Sleeves: 3/4
Gloves: 1/1
Boots: 1/2 | 1/1
Helm: 1/1
Bracers: 2/2

Total 386 trivial: 29/48 = 60%


This is a large enough sample that I think I can safely predict my success rate will continue to be 60% on 386 trivial combines. With 306 modded skill and Blacksmithing Mastery 3, is this expected?

[Angelsyn]

I see no evidence supporting the notion that mastery or skill over 300 makes you less likely to succeed. But due to (assumed) inherent high fail rates on GM BP/Legs having mastery or 300+ skill also doesn't help you much compare to low skill/no AA, if at all. If the BP/Legs have a min fail rate of 25%, then all you need is 286 modified skill with mastery 3 to have as high a chance making them as anyone else.

If you don't see the evidence, then you aren't really reading this thread.

[Ishwar]

If you don't see the evidence, then you aren't really reading this thread.

I would disagree with that. There might be some indications, but not evidence that having better skill/AA hurts. There is on the other hand decend evidence that the effect of having higher skill/AA have little or no effect. As far as i can tell all reported data conform withing error to the hypothesis that Succes chance is normal, but capped at 75% success.

One more thing to take into account here is that all the different cultural combines are different recipies. It is posssible that that by design or by mistake different races have different success rate caps.

[Zacatac]

Well I don't have much to contribute to the GM DoN stuff, most of my combines have been a bit lower level (due to lack of supplies).

300 skill + 5% mod, Master 3 AA, Salvage 1

GM Moonglade BP (386 trivial) 2/2
GM Augment (386 trivial) 1/1
Master level armor (304 trivial), 8/9
Master level augments (304 trivial), 5/5
High Elf BD armor (335 trivial), 37/40

[Phantron]

If you don't see the evidence, then you aren't really reading this thread.

So where's this log of a guy who did combines at a low skill level that consistently make BP/Legs more than 60% of the time?

[Lazurus]

Well after hording Metallic Drake Scales and promising myself I'd push to 300 since DoN went live I finally woke upto the fact it wasn't happening any time soon.

So foolishly I decided to I'd attempt a Cuirass combine anyway.

With 400 strength, Unmoddifed of 243 and modified of 255, Salvage 3 and Mastery 3.

Results.
2 for 3 on Cuirass's so far. (go go salvage saving me 2 of the 3 sheets on the 2nd combine which was the fail).

[Lazurus]

In addition to the above, still with no change on stats:

I'm 1 for 1 on Grandmaster's Dreadguard Greaves.

Also 1 for 2 on Grandmaster's Chest Symbol of Hate.

[Berrew]

My combines have been done while on the way to max smithing, so they have been performed with SM3 and raw Smithing skill of between 282 and 291 + geerlok.

Current success rates are 3/7 for GM Cuirasses, and 7/8 for varied Chest/Legging augs.

[Rasky]

Had an interesting event last night...

Took 6 attempts to make a single set of GM Gloves (trivial of 334) for Dark Elf.

Skill is 266 with +15% Gloves (305 modified) with BM3 and Salvage 2 with Str at 430.

Run was actually 0/2, 0/2, 1/2 since I had to run back to bank (zoned) after two attempts from the DE Forge eacfh time I failed. I was doing this on faith for a guildee who bought a pair of scales (I had some stocked that I save for folks in the guild so I could try 4 more times).

I then went to Glossy Drake Hide for the Symbol and was 1/1 on it with 252 Taillroing skill and +5% Geerlok (modified skill 268) with Int at 345. Have no Tailoring Mastery levels.

Feels to me like BM3 is da debil!!!

Note... No skill-ups on the 6 attempts. Afterwards I did 10 attempts at Master's sleeves and got 2 skill-ups.... /sigh

Another note. With Salvage 2 a couple weeks ago I salvage 3 items on a failed attempt at something (think I was doing Kaladim Constitutionals). So that is definitely bugged.

Rasky
Quell

[Beaumont72]

Well, finally got my smithing up. Here is what my stats are so far:

Base Smithing: 263
Geerlok 5%: 276
Strength: 415
Wisdom: 380
BlackSmithing Mastery 1
Salvage 1

2/6 on Grandmaster Legs (Finally!)
1/1 on Grandmaster BP
2/2 on Grandmaster Arms
2/3 on Gloves (/sigh)
2/3 on Boots
1/1 on Wrist

I'm not doing to bad considering. I really hate failing on those legs though, especially at 3 scales a pop!

[Effray]

So far :
with Skill 262, Geerlock, BM3

1/1 on Grandmaster's BP
1/1 on Grandmaster's Chest Symbol

(woooot :-))

[Kanidyen]

With 281 base skill, 295 trophy skill, Smithing Mastery 2, Salvage 3, on Half-Elf DoN Cultural:

Greaves: 3 attempts, used six sheets, salvage saved two sheets and then one on first two tries, third attempt = success
Cuirass: 1 attempt = success
Sleeves: 1 attempt = success - Skillup!

With 282 base skill, 296 trophy skill, mastery 2, salvage 3:

Helm: 2 attempts, salvage saved both sheets on first attempt second attempt = success
Boots: 1 attempt = success

[Arain]

So far so good. Made 5 Grandmaster Wirewood Cuirass in 5 attempts and 1 for two attempts on Grandmaster Wirewood Greaves. Actually did much better on the armor then on the Grandmaster Wirewood Mithral Bars as I failed 3 times in 23 attempts on them.

Skill is 267 plus 15% Gauntlets of Dark Embers for 307 combined.
Str was at 450 for all the attempts.

I have Blacksmith mastery 3 and salvage 3 but only managed to salvage 1 bar on the failure on the legs and saved none of the scales on the failed bar combines.

Arain of Xegony
Officer of Val'Kori