Success rates for GM Cuirass/Greaves?

[Angelsyn]

I don't know why you're having bad luck...

I made another GM BP today... 300 raw skill, no Mastery, no Salvage.

[Rorlan]

I don't know why you're having bad luck...

I made another GM BP today... 300 raw skill, no Mastery, no Salvage.

I failed another 2 bps today.. thats 7 failed BP attemps in a row, guess im gonna get the AA3 and work on smithing a little more

Utterly amazing... I think there is something wrong cause I went to abysmal sea to make some velium gemmed weapons for my warrior and I failed all 3 attempts at a 242 trivial combine sword.. didnt even make one.. so wierd

[Chip194]

269 + 5 gear =282 skill 3bm/3salv

Went 4/6 on GM Bp's. (Both fails gave back 1 sheet each).
Not bad eh? Very solid, I knew it wouldn't last.

...3 days later...

271+ 5 gear =284 skill

1/6 on GM Legs. (2 Fails gave back 1 sheet, 2 other fails gave back 2 sheets, 1 fail returned nothing)

5/12 overall, 6 of the 7 fails gave back at least 1 sheet.

[Angelsyn]

Still having great luck...

2 more BPs, 2 more Leggings, 1 more Helm, 1 more Sleeves.

All with 300 skill + Geerlok. No Salvage, no Mastery.

[Mannwin Woobie]

No Mastery, eh? A while back I read a thread claiming that Smithing Mastery was broken and was actually decreasing your chances of success. Was this ever confirmed to be true? And if so, was it fixed?

[Angelsyn]

No Mastery, eh? A while back I read a thread claiming that Smithing Mastery was broken and was actually decreasing your chances of success. Was this ever confirmed to be true? And if so, was it fixed?

It was confirmed that Mastery will actually reduce your chance of success if you have very low (or no) skill.

At this rate, I most likely won't be buying Mastery... especially considering all the other AA's I need.

[Mannwin Woobie]

It was confirmed that Mastery will actually reduce your chance of success if you have very low (or no) skill.

Is this a bug? Or some weird permutation of the formula? And should we be concerned at high skill levels?

[Phantron]

Mastery isn't even used if you've no skill so it can't reduce your chance in the first place. It was confirmed that you don't have a flat rate of making anything 50% with mastery 3 because you can actually have a fail chance > 100%. Mastery still cuts it in half but if your fail rate is >190% then it's the same as not having it (190/2 = 95% fail rate, which is highest it can be in the first place).

Went 1/5 on GM Legs recently at 318 skill.

[Astroshak]

It was confirmed that you don't have a flat rate of making anything 50% with mastery 3 because you can actually have a fail chance > 100%. Mastery still cuts it in half but if your fail rate is >190% then it's the same as not having it (190/2 = 95% fail rate, which is highest it can be in the first place).

Huh?

Pardon me, but this looks a tad contradictory.

[Giddy Gonzalus]

You always have a minimum of 5% success doing a combine.

As stated, if your skill is much too low for a combine your failure rate could be over 100%, like 190% used in the example. Blacksmithing 3 would reduce this 190% to 95%, which is the maximum it could be anyways.

Two better examples:
1 - if you had a failure rate of 210% for a combine and Blacksmithing 3 your failure rate would be 210 / 2 = 105% but since the maximum failure rate for any combine is 95% it would be 95%
2 - if you had a failure rate of 180% for a combine and Blacksmithing 3 your failure rate would be 180 / 2 = 90% which is slightly better then the maximum failure rate of 95% therefore it is 90%

Hope that clears it up.

[Angelsyn]

Mastery isn't even used if you've no skill so it can't reduce your chance in the first place. It was confirmed that you don't have a flat rate of making anything 50% with mastery 3 because you can actually have a fail chance > 100%. Mastery still cuts it in half but if your fail rate is >190% then it's the same as not having it (190/2 = 95% fail rate, which is highest it can be in the first place).

Went 1/5 on GM Legs recently at 318 skill.

This is currently incorrect.

It was tested by someone with 0 skill (Tailoring, I belive) & Mastery 3 doing a Trivial 16 combine while observed by a Dev. It was shown that the "success chance" was dropped even lower than normal, due to the person having Mastery.

It was also tested by someone with 190-ish skill & Mastery 3 doing a 200-ish Trivial combine while observed by a Dev. The person's success rate was noted to be higher, as expected.

As for someone doing a 300-ish Trivial combine with 190-ish skill & Mastery 3... I don't recall the results of such a test being posted.

[Mannwin Woobie]

As for someone doing a 300-ish Trivial combine with 190-ish skill & Mastery 3... I don't recall the results of such a test being posted.

Of course, being the selfish Halfling I am, I would be interested in the 300+ Trivial with 300 skill and Mastery 3

[Rhumba]

Formula wrong?

According to the calculator. My success rate should be 78%.

267 + 10% - 0/2 on bp - skillup on second
268 + 10% - 1/4 on bp

I think we're to the point now where we can say either 1) there is something wrong with the calculator or formula from SoE. or 2) there is a bug in EQ if the formula is correct. We've not heard from ANYONE that is over 290 modified skill that is close to the sucess rate they should be at. And we have a ton of people coming up with very long odds on bad luck. Anyone up for trying to figure out the probabilities of those who have posted?

[Arain]

I am very interested in the bug being disscussed. I am currently at 253 smithing plus 15% smithing gloves for 290. Also have SM3 and working on salvage. I was planning on finishing up with shadowscream to 267 but as that would put me over 300 modified, I am now kind of leary of doing that. Also lol did I shoot myself in the foot training SM3? Thanks for any feedback.

[Angelsyn]

According to the calculator. My success rate should be 78%.

267 + 10% - 0/2 on bp - skillup on second
268 + 10% - 1/4 on bp

I think we're to the point now where we can say either 1) there is something wrong with the calculator or formula from SoE. or 2) there is a bug in EQ if the formula is correct. We've not heard from ANYONE that is over 290 modified skill that is close to the sucess rate they should be at. And we have a ton of people coming up with very long odds on bad luck. Anyone up for trying to figure out the probabilities of those who have posted?

You're incorrect about not hearing from anyone over skill 290 modified.

All my GM combines were done when I reached over 300 modified skill, and I've succeeded at all of them.

I only have a Trophy (+5%), no Salvage, no Mastery. I've made 2 or 3 each on BPs & Legs, 2 Vambs, and at least 1 of each other piece.