Note regarding Ceremonial Solstice Robes

[Sovran]

This may already have been posted somewhere, but I didn't see it so I thought I'd post again in case it's helpful. Using the success rate formula and the triv for CSRs, I made a graph of how your success chance increases as your skill increases. This should be helpful because your success rate directly impacts how much you spend on gem studded chains.

The cost-per-combine of a gem studded chain is 250pp. Assuming you (or your jeweler friend) succeed on 60% of your GSC attempts, the final cost per chain is 416.6pp. If we multiply this cost by the success rate at any given skill level, we can figure out how many combines we should be able to do with a single chain, and hence how much we spend per combine on the chain.

This exercise shows that the cost-per-chain is the same up to 204 skill. From 205 to 249, the cost rises steadily at a rate of about 4.1pp per skill point. The full data is at the bottom of this post.

Using this information, you can calculate the cost of doing CSRs vs. other combines at any skill level. On my server, for example, Othmir Furs sell for around 150pp each. That makes the cost of attempting one Othmir Fur Cap 316.325pp. Even at skill 249, therefore, it's cheaper to use CSRs (286.831pp per attempt). Conversely, you can determine that you would have to buy Othmir Furs for 135pp each (or less) in order for Othmir Fur Caps to be cheaper than CSRs at skill 249.

Of course, if you're after speed of skilling, rather than the most efficient use of plat, then Othmir Fur Caps will probably be faster because your chances of getting a skillup will be higher on each combine, due to the lower triv of the Caps vs. the Robes. Also, obviously, the horrid number of subcombines for CSRs makes them incredibly slower than Caps.

skill - success rate - cost per combine
200 - 5.00% - 20.830
201 - 5.00% - 20.830
202 - 5.00% - 20.830
203 - 5.00% - 20.830
204 - 5.00% - 20.830
205 - 5.25% - 21.872
206 - 6.25% - 26.038
207 - 7.25% - 30.204
208 - 8.25% - 34.370
209 - 9.25% - 38.536
210 - 10.25% - 42.702
211 - 11.25% - 46.868
212 - 12.25% - 51.034
213 - 13.25% - 55.200
214 - 14.25% - 59.366
215 - 15.25% - 63.532
216 - 16.25% - 67.698
217 - 17.25% - 71.864
218 - 18.25% - 76.030
219 - 19.25% - 80.196
220 - 20.25% - 84.362
221 - 21.25% - 88.528
222 - 22.25% - 92.694
223 - 23.25% - 96.860
224 - 24.25% - 101.026
225 - 25.25% - 105.192
226 - 26.25% - 109.358
227 - 27.25% - 113.524
228 - 28.25% - 117.690
229 - 29.25% - 121.856
230 - 30.25% - 126.022
231 - 31.25% - 130.188
232 - 32.25% - 134.354
233 - 33.25% - 138.520
234 - 34.25% - 142.686
235 - 35.25% - 146.852
236 - 36.25% - 151.018
237 - 37.25% - 155.184
238 - 38.25% - 159.350
239 - 39.25% - 163.516
240 - 40.25% - 167.682
241 - 41.25% - 171.848
242 - 42.25% - 176.014
243 - 43.25% - 180.180
244 - 44.25% - 184.346
245 - 45.25% - 188.512
246 - 46.25% - 192.678
247 - 47.25% - 196.844
248 - 48.25% - 201.010
249 - 49.25% - 205.176

Edit: Wrong triv number slipped in there somehow. Fixed resulting calculations.

[Aalar]

Thanks for the fine chart. I can now see where I want to hop off and go into cultural robes.

Aalar

[Kaysha Soulsinger]

Your chart seems to exclude the cost of the Sacred Tunare Silks. Assuming you can get those imbued for free, you are still looking at about 40pp worth of Emeralds that you can cut up as a "loss" per failure.

[Sovran]

This chart is intended only to show costs and success rates for the chains. Using these costs for the chains, you can make a much more accurate guess at your cost-per-combine at any given skill level. I'm at 216 skill now, for instance, which means I succeed on the combine about 16% of the time. That, in turn, means that the chains alone cost me 67.698pp per combine. I buy spider silk at 5p each and imbue them myself, so each Sacred Tunare Silk costs me 27.201pp. This, plus the .052pp for the tunic pattern, means that each robe combine costs me 149.353pp. When I get 217 skill, the cost will go up to 153.519pp per combine, and so forth.

Ironically, I did all this to confirm my suspicion that doing CSRs is cheaper than doing Othmir Fur Caps. When I was done, I certainly did confirm that. Unfortunately, I also discovered that I can buy excellent sabertooth tiger hides at 100pp and do imbued cultural armor for significantly less cost AND time per combine. Thus, all the time and money I spent getting to 216 could have been spent more productively than it was. Sigh...

[Shamgar]

When i get a chance I need to run the numbers for othmir vs solstice myself. While its cheaper per combine to do solstice, doesnt solstice take more combines to skill up? especially at lower skill levels.

[Sovran]

It definitely takes more combines to skill up with CSRs, but the difference isn't as huge as it might seem. At skill 187, for instance, when the ribbons triv, your skillup chance (assuming 305 stat) is 5.46% for caps and 4.80% for CSRs. That's a 13% increase in the skillup chance from CSRs to caps, so you could, theoretically, save money as long as your cap costs are no more than 13% higher than your CSR costs. Using the numbers I provided earlier for Othmir Fur and CSR costs at skill 249, for example, your othmir fur combines would have to cost 324.119pp or less each in order for caps to be cheaper than CSRs in the long run. Since the cost per combine on caps is fixed (assuming 150pp per fur) at 316.325pp, it would be a very close call between the two. At lower skill levels, the CSRs would be noticibly cheaper, even with the 13% modifier factored in.

I'm ignoring the potential to sell either item in the bazaar or to vendors, because the prices you can get for either one are so similar as to be irrelevant. Coinceivably, since you'd succeed on fewer robes than caps, you might save a bit of money if you could consistently sell caps, but in my experience you're doing good to sell more than a cap or two per week, while robes will usually go a bit faster.

[Ryuchitoran]

No wonder..

Okay, I think this explains why ceremonial solstice robes are selling for like 25pp on Tribunal, people are using them to skill up.

Bleh.. the only two items for the PoTC quest that sell for anything anymore are the sickle and idol. I guess my second GM skill will be smithing.