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  • bad luck or broken code?

    I posted over in the general tradeskill discussion that I'd had what seemed like a spectacularly bad run of luck trying to skillup pottery from 122, even though the recent skillup problem has supposedly been fixed. I was doing casseroles, which yes means a lot of failures, but even so the expected number of combines to get to 152 would be about 220 (with geerlok), and it took me 403. That was in the Guild Hall, which someone thought might matter, so I did another run in Abysmal last night. I got from 152 to 160, which should have taken about 73 combines, but instead took 153. (This assumes the "old" skillup formula. Supposedly the new formula, which makes it harder to do 250-300, should make it easier in this range.)

    Am I misunderstanding something, or what? I know there can be dry stretches due to the RNG, but these are statistically WAY off. That first run especially. Expecting 30 skillups in 220 tries means an average of .136 per try. Doing 403 tries at .136 each (yes, I know the actual chance varied as skill changed) should yield 30 or fewer skillups only once in 14500 times. Last night's shorter dry spell should happen less then 1 time in 90.

    I'm basing these figures on the "skillup formula" thread. According to that, at WIS 255, and assuming pottery is difficulty 4, I'd pass the first check 60% of the time on success, 30% on failure. Then, say, at skill 150 I'd pass the second check 25% of the time. My success/failure rate was very close to the expected rate (about 50/50 on the first batch, about 2/1 on the later batch). Are other people seeing similar issues in this range, or has the RNG singled me out for maltreatment?

    Edit to add more data: I switched to Lined Poison Vials (having read about the Crow's Special Brew recipe) and went from 160 to 168. I succeeded on over 90% of the combines, as expected. My skillup rate under the old formula should've been about 10-12%; I would expect to need about 75 combines to reach 168. It took me (coincidentally) 168 combines. I then switched to Sealed Poison Vials, triv 188; I'd expect to need about 330 combines, or 16.5 per skillup. So far I've done 232 combines and gotten 6 skillups, or about 1 in 39. This is ridiculous; I'm on the verge of giving up on tradeskills entirely until I have some indication that this has gotten fixed. No way am I going to risk burning through a pile of tailoring materials (currently at 182) if I think I'm getting less than half of the "correct" skillup rate.
    Last edited by Sukrasisx; 04-25-2005, 05:14 AM. Reason: added more data

  • #2
    SOE needs to fix this

    I too am getting way too few skill ups with this new code SOE dumped on us. I have stopped working on all tradeskills until they fix this. I also have stopped playing my melee alts because they rarely ever get melee skill ups with this new crappy code.
    Kekenewah Silverfire: 82 High Elf Wizard: Drinal Server salvage 3
    300 Jeweler (plus 15%) & JM3, 300 Smith w/ SM3 (plus 15%), 248 brewer (plus 5%), 300 tailor (plus 15% & TM3), 200 baker, 217 Pottery (plus 5%), 200 Fisherman, 300 spell research w/ AT3 (plus 15%)
    Kekema: 81 gnome magician 250 fletcher (plus 5%), 215 tinkerer (plus 5%)
    Kekero: 65 dwarf rogue 300 make poison (plus 12%)
    Keketrol: 74 troll shaman 300 alchemist w/ AM3 (plus 15%) salvage 3
    Kekecha: 75 Erudite enchanter 122 smith (plus 5%)
    Kekenebog: 59 Ogre warrior 203 blacksmith (plus 5%)
    Kekera: 62 halfling ranger: 189 blacksmith (plus 5%)
    Keneken: 75 dark elf necro: 112 tailor (plus 5%)
    Keke 70 High Elf wizard on Mayong 300 plus 12% research with AT3

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Sukrasisx
      I posted over in the general tradeskill discussion that I'd had what seemed like a spectacularly bad run of luck trying to skillup pottery from 122, even though the recent skillup problem has supposedly been fixed. I was doing casseroles, which yes means a lot of failures, but even so the expected number of combines to get to 152 would be about 220 (with geerlok), and it took me 403.
      So you got 30 skill up points, in 403 combines. That's one skill up for each 13.4 combines. I'd say that's not bad.

      You were expecting those 30 skill up points in 220 combines, which would have been one for every 7.3 combines, which, IMO, is an unrealistic expectation.




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      • #4
        Originally posted by Nolrog
        So you got 30 skill up points, in 403 combines. That's one skill up for each 13.4 combines. I'd say that's not bad.

        You were expecting those 30 skill up points in 220 combines, which would have been one for every 7.3 combines, which, IMO, is an unrealistic expectation.
        Actually, Nolrog (unless my math is off), that is realistic from 122 to 152.

        Assumptions:
        SuccessRate = Skill - .75*Trivial + 51.5
        Wis = 255
        Y = 4

        So, chance of success = 24.25% at 122 to 53.25% at 151.
        Check 1 on success = ((255-15)*10)/(4*1000) = 60%.
        Check 1 on failure = 30%.
        Check 1 overall = 37.257% at 122, 45.975% at 151.
        Check 2 = 39% at 122, 24.5% at 151
        Skillup Rate = 14.54% at 122, 11.26% at 151 (or 6.88 and 8.88 attempts per skillup)

        Edit: BTW, I calculate the average combines from 122 to 152 under these conditions at 230.27.

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        • #5
          Bah, math. Making my head hurt.

          I'm gonna ponder this one a while, and write a simulation.

          I'll check back with my results when I'm done.




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          • #6
            Originally posted by Twistagain
            Actually, Nolrog (unless my math is off), that is realistic from 122 to 152.

            Assumptions:
            SuccessRate = Skill - .75*Trivial + 51.5
            Wis = 255
            Y = 4

            So, chance of success = 24.25% at 122 to 53.25% at 151.
            Check 1 on success = ((255-15)*10)/(4*1000) = 60%.
            Check 1 on failure = 30%.
            Check 1 overall = 37.257% at 122, 45.975% at 151.
            Check 2 = 39% at 122, 24.5% at 151
            Skillup Rate = 14.54% at 122, 11.26% at 151 (or 6.88 and 8.88 attempts per skillup)

            Edit: BTW, I calculate the average combines from 122 to 152 under these conditions at 230.27.
            Exactly. This points up my concern that too many people are looking at the 250-300 range, because that's where a lot of folks are by now, but some of us are still in the mid-range and it's not supposed to be this hard at these levels! Indeed, it's supposed to have gotten easier!

            And Twist, I agree completely with your figure of 230 to get from 122 to 152. My figure of 220 was because I was using a geerlok, and the extra successes are (supposedly) enough to save me 10 on average.

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            • #7
              thought that pre-250 was suposed to be easier?

              Int 290, no geerlock.

              I've been working on the casserole dishes to skill up to 199 recently from 177. I had I think at least 280 combines (was doing multiples of 40 at a time)) for 17 points or about 6% agregate skillup chance (I stopped at 194 to do the hedge event in pon)...

              Oddly enough I infrequently failed with 1 in 40 being the most I'd fail, I just couldn't get skillups for the life of me, and went several times for 40 combines with no skillups.

              These odds seem to be in keeping with the OLD skillup rates, and I just did this last night (05/26/05)...

              I'll finish tonight to 199 and log the action for more specific numbers.

              -----------------------

              ok, saw something totally different now...

              Skill - Combines
              195 - 9
              196 - 2
              197 - 50 (1 failure, skillup on a success)
              198 - 1
              199 - 6 (1 failure, skillup on a success)

              It picked up a bit post 190, maybe they kept it gaining in dificulty from the 150's to 190, and then made it easier? It's almost as if there are two seperate rules govering either side of 190 now...

              97% Success
              7.35% skillup, much higher than what I was seeing before...

              I really wish I'd logged the previous 17 points . 17/280 is about 6% which is still close, but I'm fairly sure I had more combines, in some multiple of 40.
              Last edited by Xislaben; 06-08-2005, 02:51 PM.
              Xislaben The Rising Sun - Crimson Tempest


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