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I posted over in the general tradeskill discussion that I'd had what seemed like a spectacularly bad run of luck trying to skillup pottery from 122, even though the recent skillup problem has supposedly been fixed. I was doing casseroles, which yes means a lot of failures, but even so the expected number of combines to get to 152 would be about 220 (with geerlok), and it took me 403. That was in the Guild Hall, which someone thought might matter, so I did another run in Abysmal last night. I got from 152 to 160, which should have taken about 73 combines, but instead took 153. (This assumes the "old" skillup formula. Supposedly the new formula, which makes it harder to do 250-300, should make it easier in this range.)
Am I misunderstanding something, or what? I know there can be dry stretches due to the RNG, but these are statistically WAY off. That first run especially. Expecting 30 skillups in 220 tries means an average of .136 per try. Doing 403 tries at .136 each (yes, I know the actual chance varied as skill changed) should yield 30 or fewer skillups only once in 14500 times. Last night's shorter dry spell should happen less then 1 time in 90.
I'm basing these figures on the "skillup formula" thread. According to that, at WIS 255, and assuming pottery is difficulty 4, I'd pass the first check 60% of the time on success, 30% on failure. Then, say, at skill 150 I'd pass the second check 25% of the time. My success/failure rate was very close to the expected rate (about 50/50 on the first batch, about 2/1 on the later batch). Are other people seeing similar issues in this range, or has the RNG singled me out for maltreatment?
Edit to add more data: I switched to Lined Poison Vials (having read about the Crow's Special Brew recipe) and went from 160 to 168. I succeeded on over 90% of the combines, as expected. My skillup rate under the old formula should've been about 10-12%; I would expect to need about 75 combines to reach 168. It took me (coincidentally) 168 combines. I then switched to Sealed Poison Vials, triv 188; I'd expect to need about 330 combines, or 16.5 per skillup. So far I've done 232 combines and gotten 6 skillups, or about 1 in 39. This is ridiculous; I'm on the verge of giving up on tradeskills entirely until I have some indication that this has gotten fixed. No way am I going to risk burning through a pile of tailoring materials (currently at 182) if I think I'm getting less than half of the "correct" skillup rate.
Am I misunderstanding something, or what? I know there can be dry stretches due to the RNG, but these are statistically WAY off. That first run especially. Expecting 30 skillups in 220 tries means an average of .136 per try. Doing 403 tries at .136 each (yes, I know the actual chance varied as skill changed) should yield 30 or fewer skillups only once in 14500 times. Last night's shorter dry spell should happen less then 1 time in 90.
I'm basing these figures on the "skillup formula" thread. According to that, at WIS 255, and assuming pottery is difficulty 4, I'd pass the first check 60% of the time on success, 30% on failure. Then, say, at skill 150 I'd pass the second check 25% of the time. My success/failure rate was very close to the expected rate (about 50/50 on the first batch, about 2/1 on the later batch). Are other people seeing similar issues in this range, or has the RNG singled me out for maltreatment?
Edit to add more data: I switched to Lined Poison Vials (having read about the Crow's Special Brew recipe) and went from 160 to 168. I succeeded on over 90% of the combines, as expected. My skillup rate under the old formula should've been about 10-12%; I would expect to need about 75 combines to reach 168. It took me (coincidentally) 168 combines. I then switched to Sealed Poison Vials, triv 188; I'd expect to need about 330 combines, or 16.5 per skillup. So far I've done 232 combines and gotten 6 skillups, or about 1 in 39. This is ridiculous; I'm on the verge of giving up on tradeskills entirely until I have some indication that this has gotten fixed. No way am I going to risk burning through a pile of tailoring materials (currently at 182) if I think I'm getting less than half of the "correct" skillup rate.
. 17/280 is about 6% which is still close, but I'm fairly sure I had more combines, in some multiple of 40.
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