really bad luck?

[bjpotratz]

over the past 2 days i've failed 4 times in a row trying to make a radiant shadowflow of minor dexterity. My skill on my 20 rog is 276 + 8% from my trophy. According to the calculator i should have a 95% chance on this recipe. Am i just having really really bad luck or is there something wrong with this combine or my trophy or something? According to my math the odds of failing 4 in a row like this are 1 in 20^4 or 1 in 160000 lol. Please let me know if anyone else has any problems before i waste even more plat

[Raxdin]

Possibly just Bad luck

Not sure if it was or not, but I have successfully made two Radiant cut X of minor Dex, with about 5 failures mixed in there (Bah those slimy little worm, I want to slug them!)

[likenew]

as a lvl 20 rog you don't have the poison mastery aa's, so i'd wager even with a high skill that would effect you some bit. i know w/o the mastery skill in other trades i'll fail often even on trivial green combines.

[Qualan]

the lack of AA doesn't impact succes chance if the succeschance is already at the 95% cap.

What does matter a lot of times is having salvage 3, to have a chance of recovering one or more of the expensive items so the failure isn't as "ouch" as it would otherwise be

Mastery AA doesn't increase succesrate above the hardcoded cap of 95%, it just makes you reach this cap sooner than you would have reached it with the skill itself

[Bupper]

The average success rate for these augments is evidently capped lower than 95%. Read this thread.

[Shadowpyre]

Yes, 95% is nowhere near possible, but the RNG will do what you are seeing. I made 12 of my first 13 attempts and then went on to fail 5 of my next 6 attempts (all trivial) That put me at 68.42% success and I had to stop counting after that.