Tweet
argh...
it's math... like figuring out 5 eggs for a dollar means one egg for a quarter is a BAD DEAL.
success = 51.5 + skill - (trivial * .75)
as someone pointed out that means Skill = Trivial with 95% success when
95 = 51.5 + X - ( 3/4 X)
Which means 43.5 = X / 4
Which MEANS 174 = BREAK EVEN POINT.
When your skill is 174 IF the trivial you are attempting IS ALSO 174 you can expect 95% success at trivial.
The broadly accepted formula may be slightly (or even wildly) wrong. But observationally it's been shown to be close. And yes the Random Number Generator can give with one hand and take away with the other.
Example.
Tailoring Crystalline Silk Gloves.
Trivial = 124
Skill at start 118 (Crystalline Silk Mantle trivial = 118)
Bought 20 glove patterns.
3 attempts. No successes, no skills.
7 more attempts. 4 successes, 5 skills. (No kidding, I got 3 skills ups "In A Row" one right after the other)
13 more attempts. Some successes (went to bank and sell, didn't keep track) and _0_ skill ups in 13 attempts.
Highlights. 5 skills in first 10 attempts. Only 4 successes.
NO skills in the second 13 attempts. Repeated successes. (and only ONE point from trivial. Yes, I cried. Well not really but I was mad as a scorn banshee.)
We are talking about "the long run" for the formula to hold out.
Technically I could attempt the 5th shawl NOW. I have 123 skill. (it's trivial at 115) I have the components.
I am going to wait till I get the 95% level of skill needed.
95 = X + 51.5 - ( 115 * .75)
95 + 86.3 - 51.5 = X
X = 129.8
130 skill. Add in geerlok (120 - 139 skill geerlok adds a whopping 6 points rounded down) and I COULD do it at 124 and expect 19 out of 20 chances of success. I like those odds.
Notice I went and bought some more glove patterns and headed back for some more crystalline silk? Sure it's only 1% difference. But to save hours and hours of camping shardwurms and Velk's spiders... Sign me up.
it's math... like figuring out 5 eggs for a dollar means one egg for a quarter is a BAD DEAL.
success = 51.5 + skill - (trivial * .75)
as someone pointed out that means Skill = Trivial with 95% success when
95 = 51.5 + X - ( 3/4 X)
Which means 43.5 = X / 4
Which MEANS 174 = BREAK EVEN POINT.
When your skill is 174 IF the trivial you are attempting IS ALSO 174 you can expect 95% success at trivial.
The broadly accepted formula may be slightly (or even wildly) wrong. But observationally it's been shown to be close. And yes the Random Number Generator can give with one hand and take away with the other.
Example.
Tailoring Crystalline Silk Gloves.
Trivial = 124
Skill at start 118 (Crystalline Silk Mantle trivial = 118)
Bought 20 glove patterns.
3 attempts. No successes, no skills.
7 more attempts. 4 successes, 5 skills. (No kidding, I got 3 skills ups "In A Row" one right after the other)
13 more attempts. Some successes (went to bank and sell, didn't keep track) and _0_ skill ups in 13 attempts.
Highlights. 5 skills in first 10 attempts. Only 4 successes.
NO skills in the second 13 attempts. Repeated successes. (and only ONE point from trivial. Yes, I cried. Well not really but I was mad as a scorn banshee.)
We are talking about "the long run" for the formula to hold out.
Technically I could attempt the 5th shawl NOW. I have 123 skill. (it's trivial at 115) I have the components.
I am going to wait till I get the 95% level of skill needed.
95 = X + 51.5 - ( 115 * .75)
95 + 86.3 - 51.5 = X
X = 129.8
130 skill. Add in geerlok (120 - 139 skill geerlok adds a whopping 6 points rounded down) and I COULD do it at 124 and expect 19 out of 20 chances of success. I like those odds.
Notice I went and bought some more glove patterns and headed back for some more crystalline silk? Sure it's only 1% difference. But to save hours and hours of camping shardwurms and Velk's spiders... Sign me up.
Comment