Achieving 95% fail rate

[racquet13]

I recently took up Brewing and Pottery so I could make armor dye to fund my Smithing. I took Brewing to 122 making Fetid Essence and I followed the guide on this site for "Mastering Pottery with 30pp" or whatever it's called. However, I only brought Pottery to about 70. So I go to Gunthak and buy the supplies only to fail on half of the dial vials! That really ticked me off...I figured that the 95% fail rate applied once you were over the trivial. I did some searching and discovered I was wrong. I found that formula but I couldn't really understand it, so I was wondering if someone could calculate the levels of Brewing and Pottery I would need to achieve the 95% fail rate. Fyi, here are the trivials:

Prism Shard + Glaze Lacquer = Prismatic Dye (Brewing 54)
Unfired Vial + Quality Firing Sheet = Dye Vial (Pottery - 54)
Prismatic Dye + Dye Vial (Brewing 68)

Thanks in advance.

[racquet13]

I just noticed the smily messed up the trivial on the last combine...it's 68.

[Itek]

I'm just going to use the > 68 formula cause it's easier.

Math...

success = skill + 51.5 - (trivial * .75)

(hint: solve for the 75% of trivial number FIRST because it's in the () which, in math lingo means "do this first")
(hint: if you WANT a set success rate, rather than calculating your expected success at a GIVEN skill level set the Success number, instead of the Skill number)

95 = skill + 51.5 - (trivial * .75)

95 = skill + 51.5 - (54 * .75)
95 = skill + 51.5 - (41)
95 = skill + 10.5
85 = skill

95 = skill + 51.5 - (68 * .75)
95 = skill + 51.5 - (51)
95 = skill + 0
95 = skill

so, setting 2 of the 3 variables in the equation X = Y + 51 - (Z * .75) where X = success, Y = skill, and Z = trivial makes solving for the third value .... trivial.

And people said high school algebra didn't come in handy in real life.

You need 85 pottery and 95 brewing to make the vials of dye trivial for all combines with 95 percent expectation of success. (yes, yes, I rounded the trivials and the final answers... better safe than sorry)

[Cheeze5]

Smart *ss answer

You can try velious tailoring at 0 skill. That will fail 95% of the time.


Sorry, couldn't resist.

[Zeralenn]

I've said it before.

I'll say it again.

Trivial ONLY means you no longer get skill from making the item.

Trivial DOES NOT mean you have achieved 95% SUCCESS nirvana.

Is this in the Dead Horse? If not it should be.

...Zera

[racquet13]

Thanks a bunch Itek! That's exactly what I needed...*thinks about high school algebra*...*gets a headache*

And Zeralenn...if you had read my entire post, you would have discovered that I realized this and I simply wanted to know what levels I had to bring my Brewing and Pottery to in order to have 95% success rates. Or maybe you did read it all and felt the need to act like a jerk.

/shrug

[Verdandi]

Easy there, folks...nothing to get worked up over.

[andyhre]

Zaralenn has a nice table

Obviously it depends on which formula you believe, but on Zaralenn's very informative website, you can find a list, for each trivial, of the skill needed to achieve 95% success rate. See the table at:

http://www.crimsonsnow.org/pdfs/zeralenns_trivchart.pdf

[racquet13]

Link didn't work, but a chart of that would be wonderful.

[andyhre]

Works on my end.

Try this one, which is the front page:

http://www.crimsonsnow.org/pdfs/guides.html

[racquet13]

Weird, that didn't work either.

Even http://www.crimsonsnow.org/ won't come up for me...I'll try again later.

[Jarak_akn]

Can anyone resolve teh host name and post the IP address ?

[Zeralenn]

crimsonsnow.org is temporarily down due to transferring the DNS to another ISP. The ISP originally hosting crimsonsnow.org went out of business and I am frantically trying to get everything transferred over to a new ISP before I leave on vacation. The DNS server switches tend to take the most time, and will be up on some ISPs before others because some ISPs refresh their DNS databases more frequently than others. I hope the technical issues will be resolved in the next day or so.

In the meantime, until Sunday, June 22, I am emailing out copies of the Economical Smith, the trivial charts, and anything else anyone wants. Send me an email at zeralennmanc@yahoo.com and I will be happy to email anyone copies.

Or maybe you did read it all and felt the need to act like a jerk.

Maybe you didn't feel the need to read the gazillion other posts on trivials, the trivial formula, and had to figure it out the hard way. That, like your uncalled-for comment about jerkdom, is your problem and not mine. Don't read too much into stuff and don't assume everything is about you. Chill.

...Zera

[Sylphan]

I figured that 95 % success rate would match at 174. The ratio is 3 skill to 4 trivial.

174 trivial, 174 skill needed.
134 trivial, 144 skill needed.
94 trivial, 114 skill needed.
214 trivial, 204 skill needed.
254 trivial, 234 skill needed.

That's my rule of thumb.

[Troodon]

Well this isn't as precise, but I usually found you achieve 95% success at aproximately 20 points above the trivial of an item. Can vary but this is usually about where you get a decent success rate.

Right at the trivial, your success rate will be more like 75%.