Effective Trivials of GM armor accounting for success caps

[Denidil]

[Edited - updated numbers based upon more accurate knowledge of the skill caps]

The cuirass has an approximate maximum success hardcap of between 60% and 65%. With 250 skill, 5% mod, and all mastery AAs you attain a 62% success rate before taking the hardcap into consideration. So let's assume that the trivials are set so the success cap is equal to success rate at 250+5%+Mastery 3* [based upon parses which i didn't know about at the initial posting of this we know is this method and the post has been revised to reflect this]

Success Hardcaps:

Curiass+Greaves (386): 62%
Sleeves (368): 68.75%
Helm+Boots+Gloves (334): 81.5%
Armband (316): 88.25%



Now Let's figure out the effective trivials with 300+0%+Mastery 0 with the above hardcaps
Curiass+Greaves (62%): 386
Sleeves (68.75%): 377
Helm+Boots+Gloves (81.5%): 360
Armband (88.25%): 355

Now Let's figure out the effective trivials with 300+12%+Mastery 0 with the above hardcaps
Curiass+Greaves (62%): 434
Sleeves (68.75%): 425
Helm+Boots+Gloves (81.5%): 408
Armband (88.25%): 399


Now Let's figure out the effective trivials with 300+15%+Mastery 0 with the above hardcaps
Curiass+Greaves (62%): 446
Sleeves (68.75%): 437
Helm+Boots+Gloves (81.5%): 420
Armband (88.25%): 415

Now Let's figure out the effective trivials with 300+0%+Mastery 3 with the above hardcaps
Curiass+Greaves (62%): 436
Sleeves (68.75%): 419
Helm+Boots+Gloves (81.5%): 385
Armband (88.25%): 367


Now Let's figure out the effective trivials with 300+12%+Mastery 3 with the above hardcaps
Curiass+Greaves (62%): 484
Sleeves (68.75%): 467
Helm+Boots+Gloves (81.5%): 433
Armband (88.25%): 415


Now Let's figure out the effective trivials with 300+15%+Mastery 3 with the above hardcaps
Curiass+Greaves (62%): 497
Sleeves (68.75%): 479
Helm+Boots+Gloves (81.5%): 445
Armband (88.25%): 427


-----------------------------------

I propose removing the success rate caps and adjusting the trivials to match the effective trivials from 300+12%+M0

This would give us the following effective table:

Trivial	|	300 Skill	|	300 + 12%	|	300 + Mastery 3	|	300 + 15%	|	300 + 15% + Mastery 3	|
-------	-	---------	-	---------	-	--------------	-	---------	-	----------------------	-
434	|	26%	|	62%	|	63%	|	71%	|	85.5%	|
425	|	32.75%	|	68.75%	|	66.375%	|	77.75%	|	88.875%	|
408	|	45.5%	|	81.5%	|	72.75%	|	90.5%	|	95%	|
399	|	52.25%	|	88.25%	|	76.125%	|	95%	|	95%	|

note that this table shows an interesting fact: in many cases +12% and +15% are more useful than mastery 3!

(edit)

250 char curteousy of KyrosKrane

Trivial|250 + 0%| 250 + 8%|250 + Mastery 3|250 + Mastery 3 + 8%|
------------------------------------------------------------------
434    |  5%    |   5  %  |  38    %      |   48    %          |
425    |  5%    |   5  %  |  41.375%      |   51.375%          |
408    |  5%    |  15.5%  |  47.75 %      |   57.75 %          |
399    |  5%    |  22.5%  |  51.125%      |   61.125%          |

[KyrosKrane]

Nifty idea. Mind if I pinch some of this for my Fan Faire info?

[Denidil]

go right ahead

[Liwsa]

What are number for 12% with mastery 3?

[Denidil]

i'll figure out those effective trivials later and add them to the list

[Bobaten]

I'm fairly sure that the current best guess is that the success caps are set at the rate for 250 skill + 5% and mastery 3, not 300 skill + 0%, mastery 0. I could be wrong, but I don't think any of the GM pieces have a 95% success cap.
Furthermore, I think changing this now is really not a good idea, its been fairly well established that to reach max success at 250 skill you have 2 choices, either skill up to 300 or spend 18 aa on the mastery. If they raise the trivials now they would be punishing those that chose the second route by making items they used to be able to make suddenly out of reach.

[Turlo Lomon]

I think you may be missing what is being discussed here. With the current hard caps on success rates, this list of trivials is the equivalent trivial that we are now experiencing. Any change to it would be an improvement, not a penalty.

[Denidil]

exactly turlo - the trivials i proposed are an improvement on the existing returns rates, but only if you've done your work to have your new trophy, or your mastery AAs - or even better: both

[Bobaten]

It's only an improvement for those at 300 skill. Those at 250 skill with mastery 3 (who currently are at the success cap), would get much lower success rates if this were changed. Even with the new 8% mods, with a 434 trivial, the success rate for those people would drop from 62% to 48%. And you would need to skill up to 276 just to get back to the 62% success you currently have. I understand you are looking at it from the persective of improving the success rates of the 300 level smiths, but the smiths in the 250-299 range are paying the price. It's not so much that I oppose higher skill=more success, I just don't like the idea of taking away successes from people that already have them.

[Denidil]

skillup to 300 like intended?

the fact that people can get max success in the 260s is merely a fluke created by the funkiness that is a success rate cap

[Bobaten]

I think that since the success rate caps are set at the level of 250+5% mastery 3 it shows that its not a fluke, and is exactly what was intended.

[Denidil]

i don't think they're set of 250+5%+M3 - and even if they are the fact remains they're GRANDMASTER not Master

it shouldn't be set so that there is no reason to go to 300, get your trophy and your AAs

[Bobaten]

That was my original point, that your initial assumptions (300 skill no mod, no AA) doesn't match the data we have (here among other places). 250, +5%, and mastery 3 match the success caps observed in GM armor, oow aug combines, and the old trophies.

Chest, legs - 62%
Sleeves - 68.75%
Helm, boots, gloves - 81.5%
Wrists - 88.25%

Even if you don't agree with my feelings that this shouldn't be changed, you should adjust your preferred trivials to match the current data.

[Denidil]

i was unaware of the parses for the lower ones.

i'll recalculate everything above to reflect those numbers when i get a chance.

[Elfdruidess]

I agree with Bobaten on the mathematics side of the issue. Which makes it even sadder to realize that GM armor was created from day 1 from the perspective of the adventurer (lvling / exp) and not the tradeskiller.

(1) GM symbols require high lvl quest
(2) 300 skill was not considered in the formula when they determined the hard caps

It is Grandmaster armor for sure. But Grandmaster "adventurer". Not Grandmaster "tradeskiller".