Nailing the trivial of the Tradeskill Trophies

[KyrosKrane]

OK, the report and analysis are complete. I just need to review it for clarity and fact-check a lot of the background, then I'll see about getting it published. I'll post the abstract here later on as well.

Meanwhile, I'll keep collecting any data you can provide. The main problem I encountered was insufficient data in the 200-270 skill range or so. I had plenty of data in the high end.

[KyrosKrane]

Abstract

In the game of EverQuest, players can attempt to make items through crafts such as blacksmithing or tailoring. Each item has an associated difficulty level called a “trivial.” The trivial for most items is known, but not for all of them. This paper seeks to identify the difficulty level of seven related combines in EverQuest that produce an item called a “trophy” by analyzing the success and failure rates of the attempts to make those trophies. 1144 success/fail results were collected, which translated into 36 useful data points. A linear regression analysis was then run on those data points to determine that the cap was 74.0891% ± 2.788%, or approximately 75%. Linear regression proved fruitless when studying the trivial, so a variant of the regression system was used to determine that the trivial is likely to be 341 ± 1 point, or approximately 342.

[Anahka_slivermane]

I did 3 today since I had the gems.

415wis/450dex - No Mastery - Salvage 3

289 skill with no mod since I had to delete it to make another.

3 combines, 3 success

Hope it helps some

[KyrosKrane]

Updated to here, thankee. =)

[Qaladar Bragollach]

Bwaha... it IS 335 (probably... if you get some more data).

[KyrosKrane]

Very probably. I only had 12-ish data points with which to determine the trivial; the rest were used to determine the cap. That's why I'm still collecting data. If I can get enough info on combines in the 200-270 range, I can narrow it down further.

As an interesting note, the linear regression I performed gave a trivial range of 219 - 375. I'm pretty sure the only reason I didn't get 335 was a paucity of data.

[Natrgirl Silverpaws]

Ok here is some lowbie data for you.

My 43 rogue took a few cracks at the poison making trophy

Starting Skill:200
Mastery: 0
Modifier Geerlock: 5%
Effective Skill:210
Attempts: 4
Successes: 0
Fails: 4

My motto is I suck and I know it. I can try a few more tonight after work if that will help. I can also try a couple times ( if I can afford it ) with my warrior on a fletching trophy. His skill is 202 ( just need to find the darn gems again LOL )

[Dohn]

Tradeskill: jewelcraft
Starting skill: 250
Skill mod: 5%
Mastery: 0
Successes: 1
Fails: 2

[Uuvin]

further numbers

skill was 289 after last batch. I farmed pon poi and bazaar. did 103 combines of : bazu bows, drakespike arrows, nightmarewood bows, obsidianwood bows, stonewood bows. got 2 skill ups. then went to trophies

Starting skill 291 - mastery 3 - salvage 3 - geerlock 5% mod
successes: 47
fails : 15

Skill : 292
successes : 36
fails : 14

skill : 293
succeses : 59
fails : 16

out of materials and patience. the cost was too high to calculate. I am not picking up a fletching kit again till something else is introduced.

[Airl]

Tailoring

Raw Skill 249
Geerlok eqiuped skill: 261
Mastery: 1
Success: 1
Failure: 0

[crystilla]

This isn't in the key range you need now but here are my attempts:

Tradeskill: fletching
Starting skill: 282
Skill mod: 5%
Mastery: 2
Successes: 5
Fails: 0

Tradeskill: fletching
Starting skill: 283
Skill mod: 5%
Mastery: 2
Successes: 2
Fails: 0

Tradeskill: fletching
Starting skill: 284
Skill mod: 5%
Mastery: 2
Successes: 62
Fails: 1


Tradeskill: fletching
Starting skill: 285
Skill mod: 5%
Mastery: 2
Successes: 16
Fails: 2

Tradeskill: fletching
Starting skill: 286 (NOTE, I did NOT get a skillup with this run so I am still at 286)
Skill mod: 5%
Mastery: 2
Successes: 42
Fails: 19

[Avalin]

Fletching:
Skill Mod: 0%
Mastery: 0

Skill 282
Success: 14
Fails: 5

[KyrosKrane]

It occurs to me that I never published the results of this study. I had planned to publish it in an academic journal, but that didn't pan out. So, I may as well give you guys a peek at the results. =) The final paper is posted on my site, under the Tradeskills section:

http://www.kyros.info

[Aldier]

And for those not wanting to read through the excellent work.

The statistical analysis indicates that the most likely trivial for the trophies is 341 ± 1
point, with a success cap of 74.0891% ± 2.788%. As a working approximation, the trivial
is most likely 342 with a success cap of 75%.

[KyrosKrane]

I should point out that I later discussed the paper with a couple of the devs, both at the last Fan Faire and afterwards. After some initial confusion (where the devs said I was flat-out wrong and had me re-doing the math for two months), the devs confirmed that my conclusions were close but not correct. Based on my data, I'm confident of the 75% cap -- there's enough data to support that part. However, the data for the trivial was very shaky. I would like to see more data at skills of 200-250 to help stabilize that regression line and get a more reasonable estimate.