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Nailing the trivial of the Tradeskill Trophies

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  • Nailing the trivial of the Tradeskill Trophies

    OK, guys, I'd like to nail the trivial of the tradeskill trophies. I've talked my professor in my MBA stats class into helping me do the analysis. But to get enough data to make the estimates valid, I'm going to need your help.

    I need to collect as much data as possible about the tradeskill trophies. For the purpose of this study, I'm going to assume that the seven general tradeskill trophies all have the same trivial. I'm going to ignore the trophies (if any) in poison making, alchemy, tinkering, and research.

    The information I need is your starting skill level, whether you had any masteries (0, 1, 2, or 3), whether you had a skill modifier (like a geerlok), how many successes you had, and how many fails you had, but only on trophy combines.

    Things I'm NOT interested in are your WIS, INT or other prime stat; your skillups; your salvages; your eye color; or the phase of the moon.

    The preferred format would be as follows:

    Tradeskill: smithing
    Starting skill: 298
    Skill mod: 5%
    Mastery: 0
    Successes: 5
    Fails: 12

    Naturally, fill in the proper values for your data. If you got a skillup while doing trophies, make a new entry for each skill level -- please don't lump multiple skills under one entry.

    I have about 400 data points from my own skillups in fletching, but the more data I can collect, the more accurate I can make the final estimate. I will be collecting data through the end of the week, maybe through the end of the month. If you kept records of past combines, I will accept any data from the past six months (effectively, any data collected from May 1, 2005 onwards). I could use any data, even as low as one combine. The more total data I can collect, the easier it will be to come up with a reasonable estimate for the trivials.

    It is essential that the information is accurate. "I think I had this skill when I combined" and "I guess I had that many successes" are not good enough. It has to be as accurate as possible. This also means, please don't make up numbers. There's no prize here for having the most info or anything like that.

    Please post below with your data summaries. If you have any questions or comments, you can post here as well, and I'll do my best to answer.
    Last edited by KyrosKrane; 11-22-2005, 06:29 PM.
    Sir KyrosKrane Sylvanblade
    Master Artisan (300 + GM Trophy in all) of Luclin (Veeshan)
    Master Fisherman (200) and possibly Drunk (2xx + 20%), not sober enough to tell!
    Lightbringer, Redeemer, and Valiant servant of Erollisi Marr

  • #2
    My money's on 335.

    I don't have any data... I made my trophies so long ago I've forgotten and I'm not rich(crazy) enough to attempt skilling up in fletching in this manner.

    Comment


    • #3
      Please, no guesses -- I'm going into this with no assumptions. I'd rather let the data do the talking. (And as a side note, a preliminary guesstimate on my part, based on what little data I do have, suggests the trivial will be higher than that -- but I don't have enough data to make an accurate guess yet.)

      Anywho, here's the data I've collected so far, to kick-start things.

      Skill: Fletching
      Skill mod: 5%
      Mastery: 0

      Starting Skill: 284
      Success: 6
      Fails: 1

      Starting Skill: 285
      Success: 6
      Fails: 3

      Starting Skill: 286
      Success: 32
      Fails: 9

      Starting Skill: 287
      Success: 15
      Fails: 5

      Starting Skill: 288
      Success: 43
      Fails: 9

      Starting Skill: 289
      Success: 2
      Fails: 1

      Starting Skill: 290
      Success: 27
      Fails: 7

      Starting Skill: 291
      Success: 58
      Fails: 24

      Starting Skill: 292
      Success: 7
      Fails: 1

      Starting Skill: 293
      Success: 33
      Fails: 6

      Starting Skill: 294
      Success: 49
      Fails: 27

      Starting Skill: 295
      Success: 17
      Fails: 9

      Starting Skill: 296
      Success: 6
      Fails: 2

      Starting Skill: 297
      Success: 198
      Fails: 83
      Sir KyrosKrane Sylvanblade
      Master Artisan (300 + GM Trophy in all) of Luclin (Veeshan)
      Master Fisherman (200) and possibly Drunk (2xx + 20%), not sober enough to tell!
      Lightbringer, Redeemer, and Valiant servant of Erollisi Marr

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by KyrosKrane
        Starting Skill: 297
        Success: 198
        Fails: 83
        I wish I could afford to burn money at that rate

        Comment


        • #5
          Hrm... after looking at that data point again, I gotta wonder if the trophy trivials haven't changed... because at that failure rate at 297 that would mean a trivial point roughly in the 390's. At 252 skill (max back in the day) you'd have a success rate of about 10%.

          Now, I failed on some trophies but I sure as heck didn't fail 9 out of 10. I don't recall any of my 7 taking more than 3-4 tries at 252 skill.

          Anywho... this is not what you wanted out of this thread I am sure so I'll shut up now.

          Comment


          • #6
            Just to complicate things... how do we know whether or not tradeskill trophies have a hard-coded minimum failure rate (similar to DoN GM armors?)

            Rather than an ultra-high trivial, isn't it possible that they have say a 30% minimum failure rate, making high-level skill tests of no use in identifying the actual trivial?

            Anyway, 1 data point:

            Tailoring
            Skill: 275
            Skill mod 5%
            Mastery 3
            Success: 1
            Fails: 0

            Comment


            • #7
              I find statistics facinating, soo ill chip in my views.

              All you are going to be able to collect is success rate data. If you ever want to relate that to a trivial, you need some theory the connect trivial levels to success rates.

              I know there is a formula, but I also know the success rate/tivial theory was developes when max skill was 252 and max trivial was 335. The concept of improving chance after you hit 96% was also introduced later, as was the concept of minimum fail rates.

              Now looking at your data, there is no indication of any change of succes rate with change of skill. If anything there is a small decline in success rates with higher skill, but this is small, and is probably just noice. I actually think your sample is large enought to reject the theory that the success rate increases 1 percentage point per skill point.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Sklak
                Just to complicate things... how do we know whether or not tradeskill trophies have a hard-coded minimum failure rate (similar to DoN GM armors?)

                Rather than an ultra-high trivial, isn't it possible that they have say a 30% minimum failure rate, making high-level skill tests of no use in identifying the actual trivial?
                My assumption is that since the trophies existed long before the minimum chance to fail existed, they don't use it. This could be an incorrect assumption, but I doubt the devs would have gone back and made trophies even harder. Remember, they're meant as a prize for 250 skill, not 300 skill.
                Sir KyrosKrane Sylvanblade
                Master Artisan (300 + GM Trophy in all) of Luclin (Veeshan)
                Master Fisherman (200) and possibly Drunk (2xx + 20%), not sober enough to tell!
                Lightbringer, Redeemer, and Valiant servant of Erollisi Marr

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Ishwar
                  I know there is a formula, but I also know the success rate/tivial theory was developes when max skill was 252 and max trivial was 335. The concept of improving chance after you hit 96% was also introduced later, as was the concept of minimum fail rates.
                  Do we know for sure that 335 was the maximum trivial? I know that would correspond to a difficulty of 250, which would fit nicely into a one-byte integer (max value of 255), but I don't know if we can make that assumption. It's also possible that it was changed, as you noted. This is why I'm restricting my data to the last six months. My guess is that if any changes occurred, they likely would have been before that. Since I'm only interested in the current trivial of trophies, I hope to sidestep the issue altogether.

                  As for the cap increase in your chance to succeed, it only applies if your skill is above the trivial. Since trophies are not trivial at 300 skill, it's a moot point.
                  Sir KyrosKrane Sylvanblade
                  Master Artisan (300 + GM Trophy in all) of Luclin (Veeshan)
                  Master Fisherman (200) and possibly Drunk (2xx + 20%), not sober enough to tell!
                  Lightbringer, Redeemer, and Valiant servant of Erollisi Marr

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    i saw a triv on somehting in the DB yesterday over 400

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by KyrosKrane
                      Do we know for sure that 335 was the maximum trivial? I know that would correspond to a difficulty of 250, which would fit nicely into a one-byte integer (max value of 255), but I don't know if we can make that assumption. It's also possible that it was changed, as you noted. This is why I'm restricting my data to the last six months. My guess is that if any changes occurred, they likely would have been before that. Since I'm only interested in the current trivial of trophies, I hope to sidestep the issue altogether.
                      The fact that the dificulty was an 1-byte integer was an assumption, used to derrieve the theory. We do not know if this is correct, but if it is not, the fuondation of the entire theory starts to slip.

                      While i agree that it is possible this were changed, it is also possible the entire succes rate formalu has changes, and it is also possible that it is a different formula for dificulties higher than 250.

                      Is there any reason to examine the trivial of trophies, orther than its fun to play with statistics?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Ishwar
                        Is there any reason to examine the trivial of trophies, orther than its fun to play with statistics?
                        Other than an idle curiosity about the actual value, not really, no. =) I had the opportunity to combine two things in my life at once -- EQ and an MBA stats class, so I jumped at the chance.

                        The success formula was confirmed by Tanker at the last Fan Faire. He did say that we should be looking at the difficulties from which trivials are derived, but when I pointed out that we had a formula for that which matched all known trivials in JC to round difficulties, he said that we probably had the right formula there.
                        Sir KyrosKrane Sylvanblade
                        Master Artisan (300 + GM Trophy in all) of Luclin (Veeshan)
                        Master Fisherman (200) and possibly Drunk (2xx + 20%), not sober enough to tell!
                        Lightbringer, Redeemer, and Valiant servant of Erollisi Marr

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Skill: Fletching
                          Skill mod: 5%
                          Mastery: 0

                          Starting Skill: 298
                          Success: 4
                          Fails: 0

                          Starting Skill: 299
                          Success: 25
                          Fails: 7

                          Starting Skill: 300
                          Success: 1
                          Fails: 0
                          Sir KyrosKrane Sylvanblade
                          Master Artisan (300 + GM Trophy in all) of Luclin (Veeshan)
                          Master Fisherman (200) and possibly Drunk (2xx + 20%), not sober enough to tell!
                          Lightbringer, Redeemer, and Valiant servant of Erollisi Marr

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            One of the trophies is learnable at is trivial at 335. (Poison)
                            Turlo Lomon
                            Deceiver of Drinal
                            "Ah, but you HAVE heard of me."

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              The max success rate added to OoW augments appears to match the old max obtainable success rate (252 skill and mastery 3) that existed before the skill cap raise. It would not be that far off to expect the same to be true for trophies. It's not that they made them any harder than they were before, its just that they don't get any easier with increased skill.

                              Comment

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