GM smithing/tailoring success rates w/ Mastery 3, possible bug

[Xulan]

This is from a thread (post 22) on the sk board:

I made my gm bp, legs, helm, arms and boots plus symbols starting at a smithing skill level of 222, although I do have all the tradeskill aa's. I only failed on one legs, and fortunately reclaimed the three drake scale components, and two of the symbols.

There was some discussion on EQ Traders that the gm gear may be bugged in that people with lower skill levels were having a far better success rate that the high level smiths. Even today with my smithing at 248 (unmodified) and having made over 100 pieces of gm armor and symbols my success rate is near 80%!

[Angelsyn]

Which is exactly my point.

Maybe 250 with Mastery 3 should be like, or close to, 300 with no mastery. However, 300 with Mastery should be better than both.

I agree 100%... and I don't have Mastery (but do have 300 Smithing and am working on Tailoring!)

[Angelsyn]

If the current fail rate is going to be maintained the GM BP/Leg would have to have a 450+ trivial because you still need to fail around 40% with the highest skill possible (345 + mastery 3). This means they're completely out of the question for anyone without mastery 3 (you'd succeed only 20% of the time with 345 skill without mastery 3), and out of reach for even most people with mastery 3.

I'm saying that the Current Fail Rate (of 40%, though mine is considerably lower) should be that rate for someone of 300 skill.

Someone with 300 skill and Mastery 3 should have a lower fail rate... perhaps even only a 20% fail rate.

Someone lucky enough to get a +15% Mod item should have a lower fail rate as well... and with Mastery 3 as well, I don't see why the fail rate couldn't be 15 or even 10%.

While I am not a Raid-level player, I refuse to get into the arguements of the "haves" and the "have-nots". Rare items should improve your character. Hard work and effort (AAs) should improve your character. Perserverance (skill) should improve your character.

(Of course, I also believe there should be higher-level Trophies that add +10% to skill now... perhaps with the same or even higher trivials than the GM armours have.)

[Phantron]

Whoever designed those items decided that these items enter at the rate determined primarily by how often the components drop and how likely you're supposed to make them. Historically, the total rate item goes into the world rarely changes. So if you really want to feel better that you can make GM armor 80% instead of 60% it just means the drops now only drop 75% of the time to compensate (for every 5 attempts you now can make 4 instead of 3 armor so components needs be that much rarer to compensate).

Meanwhile everyone else without Mastery 3 and 300 skill is even more screwed because their chance to succeed hasn't gone up but the rarity has.

People keep on forget that just because you've a higher chance to make something doesn't mean the item comes into the world any faster because someone ultimately decides on a fixed rate these items enter.

[Mannwin Woobie]

People keep on forget that just because you've a higher chance to make something doesn't mean the item comes into the world any faster because someone ultimately decides on a fixed rate these items enter

Sorry, but scre*ing the high-level tradeskillers shouldn't be the answer. There is no justification (in my mind, and it seems in several others) to making a 380+ trivial item succeed the same rate for someone with 250 skill as for someone with 300 skill and mastery AA's. That is just not right. However they want to control it, they need to make the higher skills and the mastery AA's count, not just throw them out the door. If that means reducing the drop rates or raising the trivials, fine. That wouldn't bother me as much as seeing all my hard work, and the work of other die-hard ts'ers out there, simply go to waste.

[Bobaten]

Someone lucky enough to get a +15% Mod item should have a lower fail rate as well...

I would like to point out that the +15% items have been in the game for close to 4 years now. Before DoN, they had no greater effect than a geerlok for anyone at max skill (other than alchemy). After DoN, it turns out they STILL don't do anything more than a geerlok for anyone with max skill. What they have always been is a way for raiding players to achieve higher success rates without spending time getting skill ups.
Masteries, on the other hand, used to allow greater success no matter what your skill level. Now they have changed to being a way for higher level players to spend time xping for aa to get the same success chance as someone who spends time working on skill ups. I don't really like that change, because they don't really do what the aa window says they do anymore. While personally I like to see what others think of an AA before I buy it, even this cautious method can fail if while researching you read old posts based on old data.

[drtyaty]

Load of SOE Crap

Let me tell you, I am extremely dissatisfied.

Upon reaching 300 today with a mod of 315 I immediately attempted the following:

2 Arms
1 Legs
1 Boot

All failures. What complete and utter B.S. I had 9 drake scales saved up to enable me to make what I thought would be several items, some of which I was going to use myself. 6 Drake Scales down the toilet at 20K a piece. Poofed 120K.

I'm sorry, but I did not go through thousands of combines costing over 300k (300K probably far more accurate than 200k) to lose another 120K on finals.

I think SOE needs to examine this.

[Xulan]

Woah, hi old thread!

It's been shown through the "larger" data sets that we have, namely mine, Leana's and a couple others, that there appears to not be a bug. The success rates are right on with their caps, as far as we know. When I first posted this thread, I hadn't taken into account tiered caps.

Stinky luck is what you have had =( And yes, it is no fun. I've now had 2 seperate runs, months apart, where it has taken me 4 attempts to make legs and bp. 24 MDS for 2 items which normally take 6. It all evens out, however, when I get those streaks of full sets of armor with no failures.

Legs, BP and arms are the hardest 3 items, and you tried 2 of those items/ 3 attempts total out of the 4. Bp/legs have a projected success rate of ~62%, and arms somewhere around ~69%.

Boots are closer to 80%. Bad run =(

[drtyaty]

Bad Run?

You've got to be kidding me. You're gonna drink that SOE Kool-Aid and tell me everything is "working as intended"?

Not a chance. I didn't spend at least 24-48 RL HOURS of my life getting from 250-300, Pay 300K or more on Emeralds, Rubys, and Saphires, and do countless thousands of combines to then fail on 4 of 6 combines.

It's broken or collectively SOE Devs are no smarter than a doorknob.

Give me a break.

[Winenose]

Not a chance. I didn't spend at least 24-48 RL HOURS of my life getting from 250-300, Pay 300K or more on Emeralds, Rubys, and Saphires, and do countless thousands of combines to then fail on 4 of 6 combines.

Apparently you did.
That, or you suffer from some kind of memory loss..

[Wyvernwill]

Well, seeing as though you didn't work to 300 because that was the goal, just seems like you wanted the best chance at the armor... reading ahead of time would have helped you avoid "wasting" that 300kpp.

Sucks that you had a horrid run of luck, but it happens to everyone time to time. I've had more than my share of failures also.

[Kibber]

I have been wondering about success rates. I am a 300 smith, with mastery 3 and 5% trophy.

I am also a 256 tailor, with mastery 3, and a 5% geerlok.

Making GM augments, I "feel" I succeed just as often tailoring them, as when smithing them, no matter they be the bracer augments or the Chest/Leg augments.

I say feel, because I gave up tracking my fails vs. successes, as it was beginning to annoy me. I have about a 50 - 60% success rate on most stuff, though I fail spectacularly on vambraces. No idea why, maybe they are "supposed" to fail more because they only take one scale.

My "feeling" is that it has nothing to do with mastery being bugged, rather the level of skill involved AND having mastery 3. I "know" that other smiths with lower skill (around 260-270 modified) with mastery 3, have succeeded, enough to make it noticable, more than I. When comparing skill levels. They also succeed about 50-60%. Which I think is ridiculous considering the skill difference.

At times I wish I hadn't spent the time, effort and pp in skilling up to 300. It doesn't really make that much of a difference.

Its far easier just to get your skill to about 250, get a geerlok, and the 3 ranks in mastery.

Than getting to 300, farming an item with a high modifier and getting the 3 ranks in mastery.

Though you do get a nifty title!

Again, its just a "feeling" that I can't verify as I havn't documented it. But I am pretty certain in my "feeling".

Kibber

[Xulan]

You've got to be kidding me. You're gonna drink that SOE Kool-Aid and tell me everything is "working as intended"?

Not a chance. I didn't spend at least 24-48 RL HOURS of my life getting from 250-300, Pay 300K or more on Emeralds, Rubys, and Saphires, and do countless thousands of combines to then fail on 4 of 6 combines.

It's broken or collectively SOE Devs are no smarter than a doorknob.

Give me a break.

I used to think something was broken at well. Read the first post of this topic.

After a few hundred combines from me and others, we have data that supports that nothing is broken and that it is working as intended. You had a 0 for 4 run, 3 of which were the 2 highest trivial items. It stinks, and I do have empathy as I have been through an 0/4 loss a few times myself. 4 items of data is a way too small sample to see if things are working correctly or not. Try 400+ and you'll see that things are fine over-all.

Btw, here is my final success data (I stopped keeping track).

499 total combines worth of data (dang I should have recorded just one more =)

Symbols + Armor
bp/leg: 114/180 = 63.33% success
sleeve: 64/89 = 71.91% success
boot/helm/glove: 127/155 = 81.94% success
wrist: 66/75 = 88% success

[Canyar]

Hello Xulan,
if you were to put the trivals for each of the items in your list into the calculator with BM3 and a 250 skill +5% mod, the success rates you observed are similar to those returned from the calculator. Not sure if it means anything, but just an interesting observation for calculating likely success.

[Xulan]

Hello Xulan,
if you were to put the trivals for each of the items in your list into the calculator with BM3 and a 250 skill +5% mod, the success rates you observed are similar to those returned from the calculator. Not sure if it means anything, but just an interesting observation for calculating likely success.

Aye, I noticed that as well in another post a few weeks ago =) Good observation =)