GM smithing/tailoring success rates w/ Mastery 3, possible bug

[Phantron]

Here's some numbers to think about.

It is pretty clear that no one's making the GM armor more than 60% with 300 + 15% + Mastery 3.

So if there's something bugged it stands to reason someone out there got to be someone able to make this stuff significantly better than 60%. I've never heard of anyone claiming to make this stuff 95% of the time no matter what combination of skill/mastery is involved, so we'll say 80% sounds like a reasonable improvement.

Now how are you going to make this 80% of the time? If you have no mastery, you'd need a modified skill of 316, which basically means you've 300 + 5% and for whatever reason you didn't get mastery 3. I don't think such example even exists so obviously there can't be any data to support this claim.

Now if you've mastery, to make the armor 80% of the time you'd need a modified skill of 296. So, let's see some large number of combines (say 25+) with these kind of numbers.

Also, to make the armor even 60% of the time you'd need either no mastery and modified skill of 296, or mastery 3 and a modified skill of 256. So any skill level below these don't even matter because it's not even possible to be making >60% until you're higher than that unless you believe the formula doesn't work at all.

[Twistagain]

If you have no mastery, you'd need a modified skill of 316, which basically means you've 300 + 5% and for whatever reason you didn't get mastery 3. I don't think such example even exists so obviously there can't be any data to support this claim.

I can guarantee you that all of my skills will be 300 before I purchase a single level of any mastery. The reason for this is simple: I'm skilling up using near-trivial combines (where I am already at 95% success rate.) The masteries do NOTHING for me on these combines. So, I'm not spending the AAs. I can't be the only one.

I've decided that Salvage 3 is all of the tradeskill-related AAs I will buy until I hit 300...and even then, very few of the masteries (Tailoring, Smithing) will even get a second thought.

Baking? For what? Everything worth making is fairly cheap/easy.
Brewing? Likewise.
Jewelry? Not an enchanter.
Pottery? Not sure there is even a market for anything anymore.
Fletching? Same here. The only stuff that sells is stuff I can't even get components for.

Since the masteries will only help me with a small subset of combines (greater than 357 trivial without a lower-than-normal cap) once I hit 300 + 5%, I don't think they are worth the cost.

[Ishwar]

I have no intention of getting mastery either. Im only at 257+10% skill so far, but I might hit 300 eventually.

I actually think the mastery AAs are stupid.

[lupetto]

A friend of mine is having exeptional results 5/5 on last run in making GM armor with a 10% over 300 with mastery 1. Im having exeptionally bad results with 345 skill and mastery 3. Since the last patch something has changed regardless if people are willing to accept this or not. I have made in excess of 100 augs thats 200 aug combines. I dont say this to brag but to show that i have some experience and data to share. My fail rates went from high 80% to a 50% + or - 5 % on the last patch. Mastery is bugged ~

[Xulan]

A person in this thread has 80% success rate with over 100 combines. They have mastery 3, but started at 222 skill and presently has 248 skill. 22nd post in this thread on the SK boards:

http://www.shadowknight.org/forums/s...727#post333727

I've asked them to post their data here.


(Btw, this is close to the success rates of people who tell me of their success with lower skill (250ish) as well (70%'s success).)

[Bumkus]

1 for 1 on GM Leg symbol last night

That makes me a total of 2 for 3 on Leg symbols and 1 for 1 on GM Bloodpact gloves and 1 for 1 on GM glove symbol

total 4 out of 5

Tailoring 256+5%=268, mastery 2

[Phantron]

Consider the formula predicts 248 skill with mastery 3 to have a 44% fail rate I don't see how that sample can be anything but an example of very good luck unless there's a reason to believe that the formula doesn't work.

If anything is bugged it's that these people are making the items more than they should be.

[Xulan]

Consider the formula predicts 248 skill with mastery 3 to have a 44% fail rate I don't see how that sample can be anything but an example of very good luck unless there's a reason to believe that the formula doesn't work.

If anything is bugged it's that these people are making the items more than they should be.

It is very possible that there is a bug allowing mastery 3 at lower levels to be more successful than they should be.

[Baltazor Goldsinger]

Some more data... and I bit of frustration (trying to keep this in check ~ but its difficult!)

Again, these combines were made with 300 skill level + 15% modifier (equivalent 345 skill level) + AA Smithing Mastery 3.

GM Symbols for leggings (which has a trivial of 386): 5 Attempts / 5 Failures (over 100k poof...)

I had a glossy drake hide and I thought.. what the heck ~ let's try this from the Tailoring angle (I have 288 Tailoring skill level with AA Tailoring Mastery 3) .

GM Symbols for leggings: 1 Attempt / 1 Success

On the other hand I made 8 of 8 attempts at Master level armor and a further 8 of 8 attempts at Master level symbols (Trivials range from 263 to 304).

What I have read in the last few messages in this thread is people want more data: I have reported extensively on my progress from 250 to 300 on making Mistletoe Sickles (Trivial = 335). On Average I was getting better than 95% success from making these even when my skill level started at 250. It actually improved as I got closer to 300 to over 97% success. I made a LOT of these and I believe that the 15% modifier AND the AA Mastery 3 played a definitive role in my success. The worst "run of bad luck" I had during the entire skilling up period was 3, and after that I would have extended runs of successes. Trust me, after a while doing this at high level you DO get a feel for what's to be expected and what's out of the norm. It took me hundreds and hundreds of combines to skill up on something that had a trivial of 335 with a resultant (and to be expected) overall success level achieved of > 95%. YET I CANNOT ACHIEVE THE SAME LEVEL OF SUCCESS WITH SOMETHING WITH A LOWER TRIVIAL (BLACK GOLD INLAYS) WHICH IS 327?

Either the game has changed fundamentally in some way since OOW came out and they changed the skill level maximums OR some sort of mistake was made. Which is it?

In the past, a Trivial has meant to me roughly the difficulty of an item to make (reference the Formula etc). Now it seems that there are other factors that are being factored in as well. Have they created a new "difficulty index" that they are not talking about? Or is it some set of "skill caps" that have been put in quielty? Is it that they have decided, behind closed doors, that the game cannot have Super Tradeskillers making these items too quickly and further disrupting the economy? If this is the case why not keep it pure and simply RAISE the trivials - Do NOT nerf the modifiers and / or AA Masteries!

I'd rather have an honest answer; tell the community what is up. I simply do not think it's fair when you work so hard to gather components, do the combines, set your expectations on what you have experienced in the past and on what you are being told that the future is bringing and you get results like this. Either confess your "true intentions" for tradeskills or if its some sort of mistake, fix it! Otherwise, this will have repercusssions, the game will lose integrity and one of the really cool and unique things about EQ will become less fun .

[Xulan]

I agree that it would be nice to just have higher trivials than set success caps. Perhaps the next round of armor will be 400's trivial, and then everything will matter.

[Mannwin Woobie]

In the past, a Trivial has meant to me roughly the difficulty of an item to make (reference the Formula etc). Now it seems that there are other factors that are being factored in as well......If this is the case why not keep it pure and simply RAISE the trivials - Do NOT nerf the modifiers and / or AA Masteries! .... I'd rather have an honest answer; tell the community what is up.... Either confess your "true intentions" for tradeskills or if its some sort of mistake, fix it!

Forgive my cut and paste of your post, but these said it quite nicely. I find it very frustrating to think that things like this area going on and we have heard nothing from the devs on this one way or the other.

[wtpooh]

This past week for me has been harsh. I was making about 75% of my symbols with smithing (300 + 5% trophy, BSM3, salvage 3) but my last 3 runs went like this:
2 of 8 made (1 salvage)
2 of 3 made
1 of 7 made (1 salvage)

I know well how the RNG can bite at times, but 3 different days with way less that average results is really interesting to me.

[Phantron]

If the current fail rate is going to be maintained the GM BP/Leg would have to have a 450+ trivial because you still need to fail around 40% with the highest skill possible (345 + mastery 3). This means they're completely out of the question for anyone without mastery 3 (you'd succeed only 20% of the time with 345 skill without mastery 3), and out of reach for even most people with mastery 3.

[eqblackrose]

I dont know anything about how bugs are checked out. But cant a developer create 2 guys on a test server and make 100 combines with some Grandmaster Chestplates?

Smith#1 - 300 Smith - No mastery
Smith#2 - 300 Smith - Mastery 3

It seems like this is very easy test. Why are users forced to prove without a shadow of a doubt something is wrong. It seems like this problem is worth a little time to check out.

[KyrosKrane]

100 is probably a bit low; you're still prone to streaks. I imagine 500 would give you a cleaner result, and of course, more is better. Of course, I wouldn't wish 500 manual combines on anyone ...