After looking over the details of the formula, statements by devs, clarifications by posts here and some good analysis by other traders, I began to mull over the new formula and wondered if others of you have realized the implications of what we've been told.
1. Skillups to 175 or so will be a breeze basically. (entailing fewer combines than before I believe)
2. Skillups 175 to 300 (assuming max stats and on successes) come as a linearly decreasing chance from 12.5% to 2.5% on the 299 to 300 skillup.
3. Skillups from 175 to 250 come faster than under the old formula
4. Skillups from 250 to 300 come more slowly and I believe it has been stated that require roughly 20% more combines than the old way on this end.
5. That 20% increase in the expensive, rare to farm ingredient end is "offset" by a decrease in combines in the lower end resulting in a new 15% to 20% decrease in total combines to reach 300.
What is unstated but the logical conclusion to be drawn is:
Any tradeskiller that skilled to 250 before the new formula did more combines 1 to 250 than one starting from scratch would today.
Any tradeskiller who was at 250 (or thereabouts) when the new formula went into place faces more combines to reach 300
The number of combines has been decreased at the lower end where vendor bought supplies are cheap and numerous
The number of combines has been increased at the higher end where vendor bough supplies are generally rare and dropped items rare, expensive or both
The only offset high end tradeskillers have been given to offset the increase in the high end are the combines which will (at some indeterminate date) give a fixed percentage chance of a skillup (as stated I believe DoN cultural and a few other recipes are being considered at around a 10% chance level)
So I pose to you all.
Has this truly been a net improvement for tradeskillers, many or most of whom (excepting those who wisely raced to 300 before the new formula hit) have in fact overall done more combines than they would have if things had simply been left as they were. (having gotten the worst end of both systems, higher combines sub 250 higher combines 250 to 300)
Trivial adjustments seem to be coming soon most likely to the few combines you can do en masse to reach 300 at the newer high combine level as we've been warned.
So then you have to wonder, why is the one offset to the drastic drop in skill rate close to 300 the one aspect of the new system not yet implemented? As best I can tell from developer comments/reports from Fan Faire the fixed chance high combines will be among the last if not the last aspect of the new system implemented.
Finally, in closing I wonder if you guys have a strategy in mind for dealing with the transition.
I am torn between burning through mistletoe sickles, star ruby steins and some high velious tailoring before the trivials are lowered. At the same time doing the truly nice DoN combines later for a reasonable chance at a skill-up has a lot of appeal both in making nice things for friends and avoiding mind numbing clicks creating largely unwanted or unneeded items.
However with a definite not in June 22nd patch and indications that it may be 2 to 3 patches later before the first of the higher chance formulas how, I am not sure I want to twiddle my thumbs and avoid tradeskills waiting on the new system.
Where are the rest of you in the same boat come down? (And hats off to all you who have made it to 300 already in your chosen trades and don't have to think about these things at all
)
Thanks for your thoughts
Hyphnos of Stromm
280 Smith
250 Potter
289 Jeweler
300 Poison maker
1. Skillups to 175 or so will be a breeze basically. (entailing fewer combines than before I believe)
2. Skillups 175 to 300 (assuming max stats and on successes) come as a linearly decreasing chance from 12.5% to 2.5% on the 299 to 300 skillup.
3. Skillups from 175 to 250 come faster than under the old formula
4. Skillups from 250 to 300 come more slowly and I believe it has been stated that require roughly 20% more combines than the old way on this end.
5. That 20% increase in the expensive, rare to farm ingredient end is "offset" by a decrease in combines in the lower end resulting in a new 15% to 20% decrease in total combines to reach 300.
What is unstated but the logical conclusion to be drawn is:
Any tradeskiller that skilled to 250 before the new formula did more combines 1 to 250 than one starting from scratch would today.
Any tradeskiller who was at 250 (or thereabouts) when the new formula went into place faces more combines to reach 300
The number of combines has been decreased at the lower end where vendor bought supplies are cheap and numerous
The number of combines has been increased at the higher end where vendor bough supplies are generally rare and dropped items rare, expensive or both
The only offset high end tradeskillers have been given to offset the increase in the high end are the combines which will (at some indeterminate date) give a fixed percentage chance of a skillup (as stated I believe DoN cultural and a few other recipes are being considered at around a 10% chance level)
So I pose to you all.
Has this truly been a net improvement for tradeskillers, many or most of whom (excepting those who wisely raced to 300 before the new formula hit) have in fact overall done more combines than they would have if things had simply been left as they were. (having gotten the worst end of both systems, higher combines sub 250 higher combines 250 to 300)
Trivial adjustments seem to be coming soon most likely to the few combines you can do en masse to reach 300 at the newer high combine level as we've been warned.
So then you have to wonder, why is the one offset to the drastic drop in skill rate close to 300 the one aspect of the new system not yet implemented? As best I can tell from developer comments/reports from Fan Faire the fixed chance high combines will be among the last if not the last aspect of the new system implemented.
Finally, in closing I wonder if you guys have a strategy in mind for dealing with the transition.
I am torn between burning through mistletoe sickles, star ruby steins and some high velious tailoring before the trivials are lowered. At the same time doing the truly nice DoN combines later for a reasonable chance at a skill-up has a lot of appeal both in making nice things for friends and avoiding mind numbing clicks creating largely unwanted or unneeded items.
However with a definite not in June 22nd patch and indications that it may be 2 to 3 patches later before the first of the higher chance formulas how, I am not sure I want to twiddle my thumbs and avoid tradeskills waiting on the new system.
Where are the rest of you in the same boat come down? (And hats off to all you who have made it to 300 already in your chosen trades and don't have to think about these things at all

Thanks for your thoughts
Hyphnos of Stromm
280 Smith
250 Potter
289 Jeweler
300 Poison maker
Comment