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I was just wondering...
If people who have made a trophy would post the following:
1. Number of attempts
2. Skill at each attempt
3. Any modifiers at each attempt (geerlok, etc)
we could start to collect enough data to get a rough idea of the approximate trivial for them. This would help other people determine likelihood of making a trophy at various skill levels.
We can use the formula:
success = skill - 0.75 * trivial + 51.5
We can exclude all failures in making the earlier steps and only consider the final combine. I'll give my data.
2 attempts, skill 250, no geerlok. One success (jewelry).
3 attempts, skill 244, geerlok. One success (fletching).
1 attempt, skill 248, geerlok. Success (brewing).
Very rough calculation with just my data -- 50 percent success at max skill of 254. This yields a very rough trivial of 340.
Okay, I'm now going to list the attempts at or near the max of 252. I'll use all attempts at 240+ with geerlok or 248 without...
Attempts: 64
Success: 27
This is a success rate so far of about 42 percent, which adjusts the trivial up to about 346.
Using the data we have so far, I'm guessing success rates for the trophy will be roughly 40-50 percent at max, minus one percent for every point under max. For instance, at 220 with a geerlok, success will be 20-30 percent.
If people who have made a trophy would post the following:
1. Number of attempts
2. Skill at each attempt
3. Any modifiers at each attempt (geerlok, etc)
we could start to collect enough data to get a rough idea of the approximate trivial for them. This would help other people determine likelihood of making a trophy at various skill levels.
We can use the formula:
success = skill - 0.75 * trivial + 51.5
We can exclude all failures in making the earlier steps and only consider the final combine. I'll give my data.
2 attempts, skill 250, no geerlok. One success (jewelry).
3 attempts, skill 244, geerlok. One success (fletching).
1 attempt, skill 248, geerlok. Success (brewing).
Very rough calculation with just my data -- 50 percent success at max skill of 254. This yields a very rough trivial of 340.
Okay, I'm now going to list the attempts at or near the max of 252. I'll use all attempts at 240+ with geerlok or 248 without...
Attempts: 64
Success: 27
This is a success rate so far of about 42 percent, which adjusts the trivial up to about 346.
Using the data we have so far, I'm guessing success rates for the trophy will be roughly 40-50 percent at max, minus one percent for every point under max. For instance, at 220 with a geerlok, success will be 20-30 percent.
finally made it on the 6th try
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