skillup formula

[ni42]

Ok, I have a burning question - hopefully it hasn't been answered elsewhere; I haven't been able to find it.

Why do skillups have a consistent tendency to come in pairs?

I was hoping the formula would explain it, but it doesn't. The only thing I can think of is the way random numbers are generated (like if it's only done once per tick, with pair combines being done in the same tick).

Does anybody have any idea?

[splunge]

If your skillups are spread out, you dont ever seem to notice.remember. If you get a flurry of then in a small batch, you tend to remember/notice that a lot more.

I have a screenshot of getting tailoring (236), (237) and (238) all within 5 combines. I DONT have screenshots of anything from 200-235 or 239-250.

Its the RNG and your mind playing tricks on you.

[Lessw]

new ooW

ok suprizingly i did read all of the posts here and understand them (for the most part) but i have a few questions i have has not been ansered or even brought up, so here goes:

Question 1:
now with oow 355 is no longer the max int or wis u can have. 405 is
how does this effect the skillups equasion?
And is it worth spending the 25 aa's to go from 380 to 405 int / wis once u are level 70?

Questoin 2:
is about the gearlocks. or other % to skillup item.
do mutiple + to skill items stack? ( +10% to tinkering Robe AND the +5% gearlock tinkering item for instance is that 15%? or does it just take the highest making 10%?

Question 3
Does having +15% help or hurt skillups? ( 220 base smithing skill with a hammer of the Ironfrost(+15% smithing)) since theirs a huge gap here on weather its base skill or modified skill at this point, right?
for instance. making magnetic armor @ skill 220 with 15% skill mod u have 252 skill. u have a pretty good chance to make the armor but whats the % on getting skill ups? or would it be better to work on skilling up with no Plus modifier items?

Question 4
how does the Mastery aa's factor in?
you get 10, 25 and 50% chance not to fail. HOW?
where is this added in to the equasion?
and should one put 18a's in to say... Smithing mastery 3 FIRST then work on the skillups from skill 201 to 250? (cost not being the desiding faction. only chance for skillups)

Question 5.
how does the Salvage aa's come in to the equasion?
And how does it figure what u are getting back anyway.
...seems to me theirs a lot more code here than meets the eye.

a few other things:
252 is hard caped trade skill cap? so even at 242 skill with a +5% skill mod u have the same skill to MAKE an item as some one with 220 skill and +15% skill mod?

is their any special "THING" or "new title" for learning every item of a given trade skill? like making 1 of every baking item in the game getting them in your book, that your class race can make.

is their a new better title for having x trade skill master3 + salvage3 + trophey + 250 skill? same question for artisin title?
or is "Expert Artisan Lessw" the best thing i have to look forward to ?

and if u fail making metal bits at skill 250 smith what could u have posibly of made insted? its just metal bits?!? what did u do accedentaly make a sword and toss it when its not just metal bits???


ok thats a lot to ask and go through. hehe so i will stop


Lessw - Lvl 70 Druid on Bertoxx Server
250 Baking +Trophey
250 Brewing + Trophey
250 Pottery+ Trophey
250 Fletching + Trophey
250 Jewelcraft + Trophey
222 Smithing + 15%
213 Tailoring

[Celestya]

Hmm. I can't answer most of those, but here's a couple:

Questoin 2:
is about the gearlocks. or other % to skillup item.
do mutiple + to skill items stack? ( +10% to tinkering Robe AND the +5% gearlock tinkering item for instance is that 15%? or does it just take the highest making 10%?

Only the highest modifier is taken. % to skill items do not stack.

is their a new better title for having x trade skill master3 + salvage3 + trophey + 250 skill? same question for artisin title?
or is "Expert Artisan Lessw" the best thing i have to look forward to ?

At this point, Expert Artisan, and the lesser forms of Artisan, and each individual skill, are the only tradeskill titles. At least the only ones found so far. I do know an enchanter with JCM 3 and Salvage 3. No special title granted for that.

and if u fail making metal bits at skill 250 smith what could u have posibly of made insted? its just metal bits?!? what did u do accedentaly make a sword and toss it when its not just metal bits???

A very very good question. lol. And one of the great mysteries.

[Ngreth Thergn]

Question 1:
now with oow 355 is no longer the max int or wis u can have. 405 is
how does this effect the skillups equasion?
And is it worth spending the 25 aa's to go from 380 to 405 int / wis once u are level 70?

it affects your chance to gain a skillup when you fail. It does not affect your chance to gain a skillup when you succeed. So... if you are making items you have a reasonable chance to succeed at, it will make very little difference. If you are making items that you have a very low chance to succeed in, it makes a noticeable difference in your skillup chance.
You ALWAYS have a better chance to skillup on a success, so your best path will be to always try and make things above, but closer to your skill. In some cases though this is prohibitively expensive or just not available. So for say jewelcraft where there is something always close to trivial, it will not make a noticeable difference. For tailoring and smithing where there are some noticeable gaps, it will make a difference.
Bigest thing to remember though is we are talking about random stuff here. Higher stat increases the probibility... but as always with probability you have a chance at bad luck and all your work to make 405 makes no difference and someone with a 100 in the stat does better. But, you DO get better ods overall for a skillup with higher stat

Questoin 2:
is about the gearlocks. or other % to skillup item.
do mutiple + to skill items stack? ( +10% to tinkering Robe AND the +5% gearlock tinkering item for instance is that 15%? or does it just take the highest making 10%?

answered above by the previous poster

Question 3
Does having +15% help or hurt skillups? ( 220 base smithing skill with a hammer of the Ironfrost(+15% smithing)) since theirs a huge gap here on weather its base skill or modified skill at this point, right?
for instance. making magnetic armor @ skill 220 with 15% skill mod u have 252 skill. u have a pretty good chance to make the armor but whats the % on getting skill ups? or would it be better to work on skilling up with no Plus modifier items?

to get actual percentages go here:http://www.eqtraders.com/calculators...r=130000000000
but the simple answer is... you have a better chance to get a skillup if you succeed, so the more you succeed the better your chance at skillups. So you want to succeed and that 15% item helps
There just happens to be a few cases where you WANT to fail to save money (Solstice robes, where you get a very expensive piece back if you fail, but of course not if you succeed)

Question 4
how does the Mastery aa's factor in?
you get 10, 25 and 50% chance not to fail. HOW?
where is this added in to the equasion?
and should one put 18a's in to say... Smithing mastery 3 FIRST then work on the skillups from skill 201 to 250? (cost not being the desiding faction. only chance for skillups)

if the formula shows that you have a 60% chance to succeed... that means you have a 40% chance to fail.
so... that means with 10% reduction in the failure chance, you get a 64% success 36% fail (fail is 10% less than it was) at 25% is is 70%success 30% fail, and at 50% it is 80% success 20% fail.
It is NOT a single equation but instead a small set of code that does calculations when it needs to in multiple steps.

Question 5.
how does the Salvage aa's come in to the equasion?
And how does it figure what u are getting back anyway.
...seems to me theirs a lot more code here than meets the eye.

salvage has no effect on this particular thread. It does not effect your chance at skillups, it is just a bonus of recovering some items from a failure.

a few other things:
252 is hard caped trade skill cap? so even at 242 skill with a +5% skill mod u have the same skill to MAKE an item as some one with 220 skill and +15% skill mod?

yes

is their any special "THING" or "new title" for learning every item of a given trade skill? like making 1 of every baking item in the game getting them in your book, that your class race can make.

no

is their a new better title for having x trade skill master3 + salvage3 + trophey + 250 skill? same question for artisin title?

no

or is "Expert Artisan Lessw" the best thing i have to look forward to ?

yes

and if u fail making metal bits at skill 250 smith what could u have posibly of made insted? its just metal bits?!? what did u do accedentaly make a sword and toss it when its not just metal bits???

as mentioned... a great mystery.


ok thats a lot to ask and go through. hehe so i will stop


Lessw - Lvl 70 Druid on Bertoxx Server
250 Baking +Trophey
250 Brewing + Trophey
250 Pottery+ Trophey
250 Fletching + Trophey
250 Jewelcraft + Trophey
222 Smithing + 15%
213 Tailoring[/QUOTE]

[itchyban]

On The Distribution Of Skill Ups

One of the frustrating things about skill-ups is that there are long "runs" of "nothing happening" but burning up materials. Worse is that even if you are on an unlucky streak, the independence of each trial means that you still have the same amount of expected time until the next skill-up. Said in another way, the RNG doesn't care that you already "blew" three stacks, you still should expect roughly another full stack after every failure.

This is a Bernoulli process where each independent trial has the same given probablity of "success" (a skill up), call it p.

The two questions that come up seem to be:
How many trials should I expect for a skill-up?
How bad is my luck that I didn't get a skill-up in blah-blah trials?

The first is easy -- the expected number of trials is simply 1/p.

The second is a little more involved. The probability of of having exactly n successes in N trials is given by the Binomial distribution,

             N!     n      N-n
P (n,N) = -------- p  (1-p)
 p        n!(N-n)!

The initial instinct might be to evaluate this for one success, but the question is really, "How likely was it to have seen no skill-ups in that period?"
That is actually a much easier question!

               N
P (0,N) = (1-p)
 p

The probability of seeing at least one skill up in those trials is then,

                     N
P (n>0,N) = 1 - (1-p)
 p

For a 5% and 4% chance of a skill-up, here is a brief table showing the probability of not seeing at least one skill-up in a given number of combines.

  N   5%   4%
  1  95%  96%
  5  77%  82%
 10  60%  66%
 15  46%  54%
 20  36%  44% -- 1 Stack
 25  28%  36%
 30  21%  29%
 35  17%  24%
 40  13%  20% -- 2 Stacks
 50   8%  13%
 60   5%   9% -- 3 Stacks 
 80   2%   4% -- 4 Stacks
100   1%   2% -- 5 Stacks

Phew, I feel so much better now knowing that 5% of the people who tried to skill up took more than the three stacks I needed last night!

For further information:
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/BinomialDistribution.html

Thanks to all the previous posters that confirmed my "gut feeling" that it was about a stack a point at high levels.

[Ngreth Thergn]

I redid the calc to allow up to 405 in the skill. For the diference, lets look at :

Skill 100, trivial 200, stat 355
Ajusted Skill = 100
Success chance = 5%
Chance of skill up on Success: 50%, on failure: 42.5%, overall 42.88%


Skill 100, trivial 200, stat 405
Ajusted Skill = 100
Success chance = 5%
Chance of skill up on Success: 50%, on failure: 48.75%, overall 48.81%

So yes, it does improve you changes for far trivial like I mentioned, giving about 6% greater chance.

at near trivial it is still a boost but not as much about 2%

Skill 100, trivial 110, stat 355
Ajusted Skill = 100
Success chance = 69%
Chance of skill up on Success: 50%, on failure: 42.5%, overall 47.68%

Skill 100, trivial 110, stat 405
Ajusted Skill = 100
Success chance = 69%
Chance of skill up on Success: 50%, on failure: 48.75%, overall 49.61%

Then with a 15% skill ajusting item

Skill 100, trivial 110, stat 355
Ajusted Skill = 115
Success chance = 84%
Chance of skill up on Success: 50%, on failure: 42.5%, overall 48.8%

Skill 100, trivial 110, stat 405
Ajusted Skill = 115
Success chance = 84%
Chance of skill up on Success: 50%, on failure: 48.75%, overall 49.8%

The difference is only 1%. But it is a difference. So yes, 455 will help. If the small difference is worth grinding all of those AA's though is totally up to you

[Cloud]

After having hit 1750 I have noticed a few things.

1) Must be some number of combines or something to get level ups this would explain why u get 3-5 combines in a row then do 2 stacks with nothing.

2) I noticed that sometimes changing to a different item say from a mask to a bracer with around the same trival tends to sometime trigger combines as if doing a new item u never done helps increase rate of level ups.

3) Trade skills sux get over it and grind those combines.

PS: Every trade skill once I hit 249 I ran out of supplies would buy up like 1 stack and no skill up then go farm / buy 2-3 more stacks and the first combine hit 250

[Annalice]

I just ran Baking from 250 to 300 and noticed something. At 3 distinct points, skillups slowed WAY down (i.e. 1 skillup per 2-5 stacks of combines... fore usually 5 points in a row), while others went extremely fast (got 4 skillups in 10 combines from 294 to 298) This could just be the RNG playing tricks, but with the sheer amount of combines I was doing, that would be farfetched. The sticky spots to watch for were breaking 250 up to 255, mid 270's got really sticky, and high 280's was briefly sticky.

[Tanker]

There are no "cold" spots in the progression, except those caused by the recipe you're using to skillup.

If you use a 260 trivial recipe to skillup to 260, then a 270 to get to 270, etc. you will skillup in fewer attempts than using a 300 the whole way, since recipe success can up to double your chances of getting a skillup (as explained ad nauseum above).

Other than that, any clumping of skillups you see is the RNG having fun with ya.

[Soriano]

Has EQ increased the hard cap to skills?

IE is it now possible to take a tradeskill above 250, and has the 252 HARD cap been removed?

[Trellium]

Has EQ increased the hard cap to skills?

IE is it now possible to take a tradeskill above 250, and has the 252 HARD cap been removed?

Yes, and Yes

[tnexus]

Just did Brewing from 250 to 300 making Brut Champagne in 837 combines with 330 wisdom. Not sure if it helps anywhere, but it sure seemed easier than pottery which took 1120.

[Veril]

Stat limites on the Calculator

Hi Ngreth, the Calculator, which gives the chances for success and skillups is a little out of date, now that both omens and dragons are out.

The maximum value of primary stat is limited to 405 in the calculator, in fact the limits are now somewhat higher than that.

As a shaman, with Focus of Wunshi (adds strength above cap) and the 1st free AA from the DoN quest (raises stat caps by 10 points), and then using Ancestral Aid (adds +90 above cap) I can regularly get to 540 strength (yes, five hundred and fourty strength). OK, this is only for 30 seconds every 15 mins, but still, I try to do my final smithing combines every 15 mins.

Cheers, hope that helps

[tairne]

Hi Ngreth, the Calculator, which gives the chances for success and skillups is a little out of date, now that both omens and dragons are out.

The maximum value of primary stat is limited to 405 in the calculator, in fact the limits are now somewhat higher than that.

As a shaman, with Focus of Wunshi (adds strength above cap) and the 1st free AA from the DoN quest (raises stat caps by 10 points), and then using Ancestral Aid (adds +90 above cap) I can regularly get to 540 strength (yes, five hundred and fourty strength). OK, this is only for 30 seconds every 15 mins, but still, I try to do my final smithing combines every 15 mins.

Cheers, hope that helps

Does it really matter that stats can get that high?

per the formulas in this thread:
C1 = Stat * 10 / diff / (1 or 2) / 1000, max of 1.0

if smithing has a diff of 2, then at 200+ str you should see NO difference in skillups.

or am I wrong?


Tairne (various) Ecplecticos
Kane (soon to be gone) Balye