Tinkering Failure Rate

[cantril]

Currently doing the Abysmal Sea Tinkering Quest (Time Sink) and noticed something....
Skill lvl 50

Making Simple Animated Lure (Triv 46)

first set of 20 attempts, made 13
Second set of 20 made 13
Third set of 20 made 13
Fourth Set of 20 made 13
Fifth set of 20 made 14
Sixth set of 20 made 12
Seventh set of 20 made 9
Eighth set of 20 made 15

Now maybe i just had a lot of bad luck across 160 combines.... and i understand there is a chance for failure, and it's higher if you are closer to the trival value... but isn't this just a bit high of a failure rate on something that is in fact trivial to me?

[cantril]

Next set of combines... Simple Bow Cam (Triv 54)

starting skill of 50, moved to 54 very quickly

First set of 20 attempts 15 made
Second set of 20 attempts 15 made
Third set of 20 attempts 8 made
Fourth set of 20 attempts 15 made
Fifth set of 20 attempts 15 made
Sixth set of 20 attempts 14 made
Seventh set of 20 attempts 14 made

[Ngreth Thergn]

Tinkering is a difficulty 4 tradeskill.

[Bobaten]

At low trivial levels (sub 175) you do not reach the 95% success cap until your skill is above the trivial. At very low trivial levels (46 is a good example) it can be quite a bit past the trivial before you get to the 95% success cap. The reverse is also true, for combines with very high trivials the success cap is reached well below trivial. For a combine with a trivial of 46, the expected success rate is 70% at skill 50. You will not reach 95% success rate until you have a skill of 75. Since this is due to the same mechanism that allows high trivial combines to be completed 95% of the time well below the trivial, this is really a good thing. Better to fail more on the inexpensive (free in your case) low trivial combines than to fail more on production combines once you have your skill.

And for Ngreth: Tradeskill difficutly shouldn't have anything to do with the success rate should it? Also, as far as I know Tinkering is a Difficulty 2 tradeskill like smithing and tailoring (it is set that way in the site calculators at least).

[Ngreth Thergn]

You are right, it just affects the skillup.

You just had odd luck. But You are also not yet at the 95% chance level. Certainly not for those combines.

Success chance = 62% assuming skill 50 on the 54 trivials that those are at the end. So except for that bad run of 8, you were about correct... even better than "normal" doing about 75% success. (15/20)
Success chance = 70% assuming skill 50 on the 46 trivial stuff. That you were a bit off, doing only about 65% but not so far off the norm to be unheard of.

[Nilbus]

Tinkering is a difficulty 4 tradeskill.

I was glancing through the old thread about Ts code from the 2005 fan faire and discussion with Tanker and Tinkering was a difficulty 2 TS then, when did it get changed?

[Ngreth Thergn]

I was glancing through the old thread about Ts code from the 2005 fan faire and discussion with Tanker and Tinkering was a difficulty 2 TS then, when did it get changed?

hrm. will have to check my notes, but thought it was a 4 then.