Can anyone guess actual trivials for >250 items?

[Nulani]

Ok... at a skill of 223 I succeed almost always when making acrylia reinforced. But now that I've started trying Velious tailoring such as Arctic Wyvern, I fail about 3 out of 4 attempts, even with my trophy.

So... I'm wondering if anyone has made a list of estimated trivials based on success/failure data, mob level and extrapolation, e.g.:

Arctic Wyvern - 260 (Velious)
Black Panther - 270
Haze Panther - 280
Ice Burrower - 290
Tae Ew Silk - 300
Night Terror - 310 (Tier 1 planar)
Storm Rider - 320 (Tier 2 planar)
Firestrand - 330 (Elemental planar)

(These are just wild guesses)

Any help would be greatly appreciated!

[Zacatac]

http://mboards.eqtraders.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=39

By using the theory above, the only real way to guess a trivial above 250 is by using real data to make realistic average of success rates. And then plug the success rates into formula and work it backwards to get a trivial.

Some things like the blessed fishing poles are obviously very close to my skill level of 200 because I have 90% or so success. The mistletoe sickles on the other hand, even at 250+ GM hammer, I still get around 50%.

Skill 252, 50% success would mean the trivial for sickles = 338

Skill 200, 90% success would mean the trivial for fishing poles = 215

The more data you can gather, the better your estimates.

[Nulani]

Thanks a lot Zac! That's exactly what I was looking for. Now we just need some data... I will start to compile mine, but that is going to be sparse because it is prohibitively expensive to do many >250 combines at a skill of 223. Does anyone else have any data they can post?

[TailorWaah]

Some general estimates based on this:

Nightmare Silks. I hardly ever fail on these, and I have made dozens of the robes and legs. I never kept any records, but I'd say I'm probably close to the 5% default failure rate. So this is going to be very close to the 250 level.

Stormrider Silks. Currently at 4/4, but materials are so rare, will probably never get any serious data on this.

Stormrider Leathers. Sitting at 4/6 right now. Again not enough data for any exact measurements.

Earth Silks. Currently standing at 3/12.

Fire Silks. Currently standing at 2/9.

From some other data that I have asked about/gathered, my success on the planar armor is pretty typical, or even a bit on the high side. Looking at a 15-25% success rate at best, so that would put the trivial above 350?

Also from my experience, the Velious Leathers and Erudite Cultural armor seem to be consistantly in the 50-55% success range. So that's somewhere in the 330 trivial I would expect.

-Waah

[Nulani]

Ahhh, thanks Waah, that is very useful information. And it confirms my worst fears. After the countless hours of mind and wrist numbing frustration, we get to 250 tailoring and all the good stuff is *still* hard to make! I was hoping to maybe recoup some of the hundreds of thousands of plat I've spent to this point, but I will have to be extremely lucky. On my server elemental components are really expensive, if you can find them at all.