Old discussion, new thoughts...

[Pockets FullOfGold]

While this discussion has been going around the campfire a number of times, my thoughts may be changing...

Yesterday morning a friend/guildie wanted me to make him some Fleeting Quivers. As I had recently done a skillup run that put me at a Tailoring Skill of 212, I thought it would not be too difficult to make one for him. He said he had enough components for 8 attempts and when I heard that I thought ok, I figure 5 out of 8 successful combines was not to outrageous a thought.

Well he didn't want to take any chances what so ever and said he wanted me to have a Dex buff. I had told him, prior to my doing the combines, that Dex had no say whatsoever in whether or not you would be successful with a combine. After doing the combines though, I am no longer sure...

Just before making the combines, I received a Boon of the Garou and another buff that put my Dex at 255. I don't know what my Dex was above that if it was. I was successful in 8 out of the 8 Attempts to make the Fleeting Quiver. Did the Dex buffs provide additional abilities to get successful combines? Was it just lucky RNG numbers? I can't say but it sure does seem like the buff did help a bit.

No I did not get any skillups. Wis was 212.

Pockets FullOfGold

[Lilosh]

ONLY skill affects success.

Proven, Stated, and we know that as much as we can know anything for certian in this crazy world.


-Lilosh

[buk]

Where was it proven, and where was it stated?

[Tasu]

http://mboards.eqtraders.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=31

The RNG is EXTREMELY fickle.... anything you think you saw that "proved" anything other than what Verant has told us and Niami has supported is just plain Fluke.

I'm amazed this crazy rumor is still alive....

[Shjinn]

No proof

I have never failed a Fleeting Quiver combine out of perhaps 20 or so. I have never had a dex buff for it. Nope, it's all just coincidence.

Shjinn

[Lilosh]

Where was it proven, and where was it stated?

http://mboards.eqtraders.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=31


-Lilosh

[buk]

Pardon me if I'm always a little bit skeptical.

Do we have any hard data to back up the information from almost a year ago?

[Pockets FullOfGold]

I know from reading previous posts and reading statements from some of you having word of mouth from Verant and SOE that Dex has no say on successes and I said so in my initial post, but it was sure coincidental that I was successfull 8 out of 8 while being 10 skillpoints under trivial. Fickle the RNG may well be and maybe I did get lucky. It sure had me thinking though.

Pockets FullOfGold

[buk]

8 out of 8 successes when 10 points trivial isn't enough of a sample, unfortunately.

I'm also not saying anyone in particular is wrong about this. I'm just curious if there's been any actual studies or experiments on it.

[Thicket Tundrabog]

/agree with other posters. The mythical and erroneous impact of Dexterity on tailoring is an old flounder that surfaces from time to time. There was a brief time that I improved both wisdom and dexterity when skilling up tailoring. The evidence against the dexterity effect was so overwhelming that I subsequently ignored my dexterity (unbuffed about 110). 255 wisdom got me to 250 tailoring at the same speed as all the tailors I know.

Also, Lilosh is right. Combine success is only a function of skill level. It has nothing to do with wisdom, intelligence (or dexterity) stats. Skill level can be enhanced with a Geerlok and other tailoring modifiers.

Thicket

[splunge]

Heres an easy way to test that 'skill only, not stats' theory.

Wis/int caster.

Step 1.
Put on all your wis/int gear. Get it as high as possible. Get KEI.
Do 100 combines of something simple but barely trivial (i.e. your skill = 200, triv on this item is 195). Make note of how many successes/failures.

Step 2.
Bank all your gear and click off all buffs. Get blitzed, schnockered, #$&@faced, drink till your liver cries in agony. Do 100 more combines.

If the theory that stats affect success, then you should have DRASTIC changes in your success rate.

You wont.

[Velurian]

10 points from trivial, that high, 8/8 is not at all surprising.

There have been several formulas bandied about for success rate as a function of skill and trivial; the one that I generally prefer (though the various formulas differ by at most a few points in most cases) is:

Success Rate = Skill - 0.8*(Trivial - 75)

So, to take your case:

Expected Success Rate = 212 - 0.8 * (222 - 75) = 212 - 0.8 * 147 = 94.4%

So even 10 points below the trivial, you're very close to the 95% maximum success rate. This is generally the case for all of the most difficult recipes; as you get higher, you'll reach maximum success rate well before you actually hit the trivial.

In your particular case, you would probably get 8/8 more often, in fact, than any other result.

[buk]

Splunge:

Has it been tried with Dex for tailoring? Str for smithing?

[Delfontes]

As any GM brewer should be able to tell you... int/wis has absolutely no bearing on success rate.

I've done whole batches of kiola and even GLM completely and utterly blitzed with INT/Wis of 40-50 or whatever their minimums are.

This doesn't really prove that dex doesn't mean anything in tailoring, but I've also done a bit of tailoring, and never have I had over 100 dex. I have had strings of 70-80 hand made backpacks (very trivial) without fail, and i've had 2 fail in a row, but it is only skill-level.

[Kytelae]

Out of pure superstitiousness, my hubby always gives me an Avatar when I'm attempting a tricky combine It's his way of being supportive.