Skill up run 252-268 question

[Necro-Tailor]

I am about to do a large SU run in the near future and Im wondering if I have got a few things basically correct

Current 252 (GM trophy) -can use where appropriate
Mastery 3
Salvage 3

Goal-268 16 points

The handy calculator(nice tool) Says this

Adjusted Skill = 252
Success chance = 95%
Chance of skill up on Success: 6.34%, on failure: 6.34%, overall 6.34%

Now if I do-say 500 combines if avg holds true

30-31 possible skillups over 500 combines. Of course I wont get 31 -but is this more or less what I can expect? if the goal is 16 then perhaps haveing 400 combines preped might make more sense. What I want to do is have equal or greater # of combines ready to go with enough safety so I dont run short. As i recall 222-252 I think I prepared 320-350 combines and if memory is correct It took about 30 or combines per SU. I had about 25 wyvern pelts left over and had run out of other primary ingredients so it was a close one.

Close or Should I expect to get more combines than the calc indicates?

[Taushar]

I am about to do a large SU run in the near future and Im wondering if I have got a few things basically correct

Current 252 (GM trophy) -can use where appropriate
Mastery 3
Salvage 3

Goal-268 16 points

The handy calculator(nice tool) Says this

Adjusted Skill = 252
Success chance = 95%
Chance of skill up on Success: 6.34%, on failure: 6.34%, overall 6.34%

Now if I do-say 500 combines if avg holds true

30-31 possible skillups over 500 combines. Of course I wont get 31 -but is this more or less what I can expect? if the goal is 16 then perhaps haveing 400 combines preped might make more sense. What I want to do is have equal or greater # of combines ready to go with enough safety so I dont run short. As i recall 222-252 I think I prepared 320-350 combines and if memory is correct It took about 30 or combines per SU. I had about 25 wyvern pelts left over and had run out of other primary ingredients so it was a close one.

Close or Should I expect to get more combines than the calc indicates?

The RNG has a secret component called EDDC (Evil Desperation Detection Component). It determines how desperate you are on getting the next point and adjusts it's next outcome so it will be much less likely to succeed. That's why the last point always takes 2-3 times the typical number of combines to get. Try to get to 299 and try for the last point. I guarantee you that it will take 2-3 times more combines to get that.

Truthfully, it will depend heavily on RNG. My moto is try to get at least 2 stacks beyond calculated number of combines to be safe in getting the last point. My two cents.

Taushar