Tailoring Mastery AAs confusion

[micthedark]

Help. I have Tailoring mastery 3 and am a bit confused. After I got my tailoring mastery 3 I started making GM Augs. I succeeded 6 out of 9 times. My current skill is 213 and they are trivial at 386. I was prepared for some losses but a 50/50 shot is ok with me seeing that TM3 reduces your chance to fail by 50%.

Now, after the June 29th patch, I have failed 6 times in a row. While discussing with a gm tailor his position was there is some comparison between the trivial and your skill level and its not a raw 50% reduction in failure rate. By his math I had a 4% chance of success or somewhere close.

What gives here? If I spent 18 aa's to get some sort of ridiculously low reduction in failure I want my aa's back. His argument didn't hold water with me because either 1) I was seriously lucky before the patch or 2) I am currently seriously UNLUCKY. I prefer to think that the aa works as advertised and if I have a 97% chance of failure without the aa then I have a 47% chance of failure with it. So, did Sony forget to factor in my aa's in the recent tradeskill patch or did they nerf them so that was 18 aa's better spent on singing mastery (I am a necromancer)?

Has anyone else had any experience with this?

Mic the Angrytailorrunningoutofdrakehides

p.s. I also think my gm tailoring trophy reduces my chances of success. Any thoughts?

[Qaladar Bragollach]

At that skill with TM3, your chance of success is 42.5%. The odds of failing 6 in a row with that success rate is 3.6%. I think you're unlucky, but not seriously so.... 3.6% is not exactly lottery odds.

[bana-zir]

Now, after the June 29th patch, I have failed 6 times in a row. While discussing with a gm tailor his position was there is some comparison between the trivial and your skill level and its not a raw 50% reduction in failure rate. By his math I had a 4% chance of success or somewhere close.

Just like everything else in EQ, the rng seems to be time based.

I have had actions that are 1 in 5 (20 percent chance) fail 72 times in a row (yes 72) and then succeed 8 of the next 9 times.

If I fail something multiple times, that I think should be more successful, I stop and try again in 36 hours or so. I find if you fail often, you will continue to fail often for the rest of the day and often the next day as well.

None of what you said is surprising.

A case in point, I have had days doing GSC with JCM3. I have had days where I make 60 to 100 with no fails. I most often have days where I fail 1 in 10 or 1 in 20. I have also had days (not 1, or 2, but many, too many to count) where I have failed 1 in 3 or 1 in 2 for batches of 10 or more. Did I complain that JCM was broken? No.

[Phantron]

The RNG does not have a memory. It doesn't need or care what time it is. Sometimes you're unlucky. Sometimes you're lucky.

[micthedark]

How did you arrive at the 42% chance of success? Shouldn't I have at least a 50% chance with a purported 50% chance in failure reduction?

I also agree that the time attempted does seem to have some sort of effect but its possibly some sort of perception issue. These are supposedly all simple number calculations and shouldn't have any memory involved unless Sony added code to mess with it.

Does anyone have any specific data on the use of the trophy? This could also be a perception issue.

[Ixiola]

Interesting. 42% is what the site calculator says, but I recall someone saying that with TM3, you have an automatic 50% expected success rate regardless of skill. Perhaps that statement was incorrect.

[Phantron]

I'm guessing the calculator is figuring that your chance to fail is >100% and then multiply it by 1/2 and getting the results. However I think the cap on chance to fail = 95% is applied before mastery is factored in according to what's said elsewhere. So you should have a 52.5% chance to make anything on any skill with mastery 3 provided it doesn't have a min fail chance >47.5%.

[KyrosKrane]

What I understood (and this may be incorrect) is that the "basic" chance to succeed is calculated, then capped at 0% and 100%. The fail rate is then derived from this, and crafting mastery (if applicable) is then applied. The final result is then capped at 5% and 95%. If you don't cap it at 0 and 100% initially, you get some very odd results in the calculations.

Although, I'd honestly be happier if Tanker walked us through a sample calculation with, say, 100 skill with crafting mastery 3, and a 335 trivial (difficulty 250) combine.

[Phantron]

I guess the question is this. Say you've 0 skill in brewing and you're making Brut Champagne. Do you have ~50% chance to make them (95% chance to fail/2) or 5% (250-0/2 = 125% chance to fail capped at 95%)

[fesc_necrado]

Holding stuff for that many combines seems like a lot of pressure. You should just give that stuff to me and I'll do the combines for you!