Significant Statistics?

[Tsaos]

For those of you who are big into all those tradeskill equations and stuff, I was wondering... how many combines do you need for an item to determine it's trivial?

In particular, I am wondering about the Firesilk Undergarment Tunic (and yes, I have read all 3 pages of posts, several times.) I know some people say it's 335, but like I said, how many combines do you need to KNOW it's approximate trivial? What kind of sample do you need for it to be significant? (I took a stats for psych approx 15 years ago, but haven't used it since.) Could we pull all the 252 GM attempts and figure it out that way?

Oh, and for the person who posted the "Failure" equation with the new AA's and all, thanks. I was able to figure out a friends chance of success and he has decided to wait (as opposed to me, who tried it at 220 + 5% and Mastery 1 and failed.)

Thanks for your input, I look forward to reading it.

[Tillinghast]

I would think the trivials listed on the UI would begin to give you a clue. The trivials list up to 500 as possible in the interface, but none seem to go higher than 335.


Tillinghast
Vendor Mule

[Tsaos]

Yes that works for most things, but the Firesilk Undergarment is a quest item and you cannot "learn" the recipie for it. So it does not show up in the UI, so it has an unknown trivial.

[fesc_necrado]

Is there an option to pick to get teh UI to show trivial levels?

I've never seen them, tho I've heard of it..

[Akishka]

If you open up the new UI for tradeskills (control - right click if you set this to off), you just search for the recipie and its pops up on a line below. That line has the name of the item and the trivial. You may have to widen your UI to see this if you are not already.

[fesc_necrado]

Thanks Akishka..widening the window will probably do it..I'll check later

[Tillinghast]

Chances are the trivial on the Firesilk panties is 335 like most high end quest items. They never get trivial.

Firesilk panties... sounds like a Victoria's Secret item. Yep, never trivial.

Tillinghast
Vendor Mule
Sexist Pig

[Liwsa]

There are trivals higher then 335. Radiant cutting of augments in Jewlery crafting have a 351 triv. Not sure if you were referring to all trade skills or just tailoring.

[Boleslav]

None of the pre OOW stuff seems to have higher than 335 trivial though.

We always used to backfigure from the success rate formulas to figure out trivials on stuff that doesn't triv out by 250.

Being a PoP era combine for a difficult quest, I would assume that it is as hard as the hardest combines from that era. So I would start off assuming that a person at max skill should have about a 50% chance of success on the item. It shouldn't take a ton of combines to let you know if it is much off from that.

Using the formulas, if you have 250 skill (no mods equipped) you should have exactly a 50% chance to succeed on an item that trivs at 335. So you would have a 52% chance if you have a geerlok equipped. If you have a large number of combines recorded, you can take the percentage of success and compare it to 52%. Then adjust the 'calculated trivial' up or down from 335 by the number of percentage points you were away from 52%.

For example, let's say you did 20 combines of something and made 13 of them. This is too small a sample to be definitive, but you should start getting an idea of what is going on by this point. 13 of 20 is 65%, which is 13% higher than 52%. So you would expect this item to have a trivial around 322.

You have to be careful using numbers posted by people in a thread though. There are many factors that can confound the results. Also, people tend to post to a thread like that when their results are exceptional (bad or good) rather than when they are normal. You can't assume the responses are a reasonably random sample of what can happen. That said, you can analyze them anyway, but do it with your eyes open.

Boleslav Forgehammer
Paladin of Brell in his 66th Campaign
E'ci – Sacred Destiny