Success rate on ceremonial sosltice robes

[MissV]

Based on the general formula given in the FAQ for success rate:

Percentage = (skill - (trivial*.75)) + 51.5

My question is this:

Trivial of the robe = 335

If my skill is less than 200, the above formula would give me a negative success rate. At 200 skill, it gives me 0.25%. So, would I be guaranteed failure on this combine up to skill 199?

[Ursawraith]

No exactly,

There is a 5% chance that you will succeed any combine you make no matter how far below trivial you are.

[KyrosKrane]

Actually, the 5% minimum success rate is now debatable. We know for sure the 5% minimum fail rate was removed not too long ago; I haven't seen much by way of tests, studies, or parses since than showing that the minimum success rate still exists.

I suppose an easy way to test it would be to have a non-gnome do a high-trivial but cheap and easy tinkering combine. Anything trivial higher than 67 would do (that's 1% predicted success at zero skill), preferably around 100, but the higher the better. Do a few hundred of those combines and see what the success rate would be. You'd expect it to be around 5% if the minimum is still in, or much lower if it's not.

[Aquila Swiftspirit]

I did solstice robes from 194 to 213, with a few around 187. I succeeded on a couple at 187, while trying for skill ups.

I went through 10 chains between 210 and 213, which means I succeeded ten times in the number of combines it took to get three skill ups (I don't keep track of actual combines). At that point, I didn't feel like making more chains, but it seems like the number of successes is higher than it's worth using solstice robes as a skill up path for me for now. IF I had 100K to burn in the bank, yeah, I'd still be doing solstice robes!

So, I guess I'd have to say, you're likely to succeed just when you MOST don't want to, and to have a very low chance of succeeding when you want to on robes.

It feels stupid to be doing combines and hoping NOT to succeed, too.

[Lanalia]

I made solstice robes a lot between 180 and 230.

When I got close to 230, I was succeeding 1/3 to almost half my combines, and I wasn't using a geerlok. The chains were becoming outrageously expensive so I stopped doing the robes.

If I get a lot of money sometime soon, I might go back to robes just 'cause they're easy, but I pretty much expect to spend a lot of money making chains.

[MissV]

It is rumored that you have a better chance of skilling up on success. From my personal experience it doesn't hold true. But regardless, even if I only had a slim slim chance of skilling up on failure, if I am pretty much guaranteed (or 95% chance accounting for the 5% success rate) the return of the chain, wouldn't it be worth making robes before 200?

My skill is around 160 now. I am contemplating doing the platinum ribbons and when I compare the cost with the solstice robe, I just can't justify doing the ribbons. Not with their horrid sell back value. While the solstice robe is pure loss due to almost certain failure, a few basic calculations show that this route would be much cheaper over a few hundred combines.

My character is not old enough to get the rockhopper hides and buying them is of course out of the question considering their outrageous price on my server.

I am a bit discouraged with this tailoring. I don't have the hundreds of thousand to spend on it and I can't say I even enjoy doing the skill. I don't plan on taking tailoring all the way to 250 until all my other skills are capped and/or I am insanely rich. All I want is a decent chance at combining my 6th shawl.

So what do you guys think? Platinum ribbons are out of my wallet's league. Acrylia studded masks are out of my hunting and wallet's league. What should I do? Attempt the shawl combine with my current skill and a geerlok or do a few solstice robe combines? I'd be ready to invest into 4-5 chains but that's all I can afford.

Advice?

[Aluaeia]

It's easier (and cheaper) to just hit combine on the shawl and suck it up if you fail than to skill up farther.

[Ambertha]

I succeeded my first try on the 6th shawl at skill 163 (+ geerlock). I think it is fairly common practice to try it there, as it is faster to get all those hairs again, than it is to save up lots of $ to continue skilling tailoring.

Best of luck to you...

[Aquila Swiftspirit]

/agree

Just try the combine on the shawl with a geerlok. You have a pretty good chance at success, and a whole lot less frustration even if you fail!

Getting siren hairs and stuff is WAY less painful than skilling up tailoring really high, and there's still a chance of failure even at 250.

[MissV]

Thank you for the advice which I will follow. All I am missing for the 6th shawl are the siren hairs and my reason for trying to get my skill up is that I don't think it will be easy for me to get those hairs hence my reluctance to chance a failure.

I do have enough manticore manes, whiskers and beards to try more than once though so only getting the extra hairs would require time.

I feel relieved that I can put tailoring on the back burner until I am high level enough to farm my components.

Thanks again to all those who took the time to reply.

[bana-zir]

I have skilled three characters from 158 to 240 ish (some 250) on solstice robes.

From 158 to 215 or so, you should get between 20 and 40 completed robes.

From 215 to 250, you should get another 350 robes.

For whatever reason, success rate seems to max at around 25 percent starting close to 220.

[Tshesebe]

I made a run yesterday at Solstice robes for skill ups. I made 107 attempts, had 5 successes and ONE skill up (from 199 to 200). I'm so disgusted I can't say, because I'd get banned. Additionally, if that isn't enough of a kick in the teeth, apparently a guildie yesterday went from 131 to 202!

Someone convince me not to throw my computer out the window.

[crystilla]

When I hit 188, I decided to do the Acrylia Studded tailoring and then gave up because of the rarity of the Rockhopper hides and bazaar prices were 350 a piece at the time. (Lots of guilds were working on Grimel quest since they'd gotten Elemental access.)

So I switched somewhere around 193 to the solstice robes and for a while went fine. Once I got above 200, it became cost prohibitative for me because my success on the robes was so high.

On my worst/best run, I made around 40 robes in about 127 attempts.

Once I hit 221, I stopped that all together and switched to Arctic Wyrven hides and been doing that to date (228 now).

[Dalur]

Don't feel too bad Tshesebe.

I was at 200 and it took almost 195 combines of robes to get from 200 to 201 - that is with 320 wis.

[Tshesebe]

Thanks for the encouragement Dalur, but it still frosts me to no end that he was able to go from 131 to 202 in less than 24 hrs. Considering what I've gone through to get where I am now, my biggest question is HOW IN THE <insert expletive here> DID HE DO IT??? It couldn't be an exceptional run at the RNG, and i don't think there were that many raw supplies in the bazaar!