So after the trivial patch people have reported higher trivial items being not as successful. Has anyone noticed if robes are seeming to succeed less as well?
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To quote Sinuuyanea Nocturne's excellent "Dead Horse" FAQ from the Smithing forums, under Myths:
"Success Rate "Phantom" Nerfs--Have not, and never have, taken place. The Random Number Generator (or RNG) is dirt poor; it often works in streaks, and at times will be quite unfavorable to a person; the opposite is also true."
This is a common rumor after every patch; people want to see a 'stealth nerf' to explain any bad run.
Just remember these words: The RNG is a fickle biatch.
...ZeraBaroness Zeralenn Mancdaman - 58 Dark Elven SHD - Smithing (214)
Baroness Milletoux Fleau'chevilles - 66 Gnome CLE (Epic) - Tinkering (222), Pottery (215)
Csimene Penombra - 64 Human MAG (Epic) - Brewing (250) (Trophy), Tailoring, Smithing, Pottery, Research, Fletching, Jewelcraft & Baking (200)
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I also thought they changed it with the patch making failures less on items that are trivial way under the tailors skill.
Since THAT patch, my success on haversacks at 213 raw skill and GM needle sux goat *bleeps*. I'm not kidding a bit. And I create and sell a few of these a day, well used to.
I'm lucky to get 50-60% in large LARGE stretches. Where before I was around 90% success rate, with runs of 10+ without a failure being Common! As well, I NEVER failed at 2 in a row. I have failed back to back 3 times now.
You can say they didn't change it, but the RNG has never been so fickle (to me) at such an ironic time.......Sunburnt Dmize - 80 Druid - D-Ro
300 - Tailor +15%, Smith +12%, Fletcher +12%, Brewer +12%, JC +12%, Potter +12%, Baker +12%
Phrump Eatsogres - 32 Gnome - D-Ro
300 - Tinker +15%
300 - Researcher +12%
300 - Tailor +12%
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The only thing the patch was (publically) designed to do re: tradeskills is to make any item that trivials 200+ points below your skill nofail. The question that has NOT yet been answered is what happens once you have hit the magic 5% failure number -- does it stay at 5% expected failure until it reaches 200 points below, or is there some kind of new ratio relationship where the number declines from 5% down to 0%. While common sense dictates that would be the case, it is a more complicated piece of mathematics, and whether SOE would have bothered with this is, currently, anyone's guess.
Some items, even low level, also seem to have an unusually high rate of failure, even after they have become very trivial. Heady kiola is one of those items.
People ascribe to outside forces what can also be ascribed to luck. I have had a very bad run of luck over the past few months (best friend left EQ, stepfather had emergency cardiac surgery, cat has developed chronic renal failure, among other things) but these things just happen sometimes.
Case in point: I wear a very beautiful ring with three opals that was purchased for me as a gift. Many people comment on the ring by asking if I was born in October; folklore has it that opals are unlucky for anyone who was not born in October. I have worn the ring for two years, but during that two years have heard all kinds of stories about people who started wearing opals who had huge strings of bad luck that all magically disappeared when they stopped wearing the opal. Bad luck has many reasons, but I sincerely doubt a piece of jewelry was responsible. People want to find something to blame bad luck on because if they can find out "why" they can do something about it and feel less powerless, even when it turns out not to be controllable. Just knowing gives them power. I believe the recurring "stealth nerf" rumor that occurs after every single patch is one of these superstitions.
Hmmm, no idea why my post would have been interpreted as rude. I was being factual. If you chose to interpret it as rude, those are your filters, not mine. If you want rude, try coming over to serverwide.eqtraders sometime.
...ZeraBaroness Zeralenn Mancdaman - 58 Dark Elven SHD - Smithing (214)
Baroness Milletoux Fleau'chevilles - 66 Gnome CLE (Epic) - Tinkering (222), Pottery (215)
Csimene Penombra - 64 Human MAG (Epic) - Brewing (250) (Trophy), Tailoring, Smithing, Pottery, Research, Fletching, Jewelcraft & Baking (200)
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Originally posted by Zeralenn
The only thing the patch was (publically) designed to do re: tradeskills is to make any item that trivials 200+ points below your skill nofail. The question that has NOT yet been answered is what happens once you have hit the magic 5% failure number -- does it stay at 5% expected failure until it reaches 200 points below, or is there some kind of new ratio relationship where the number declines from 5% down to 0%. While common sense dictates that would be the case, it is a more complicated piece of mathematics, and whether SOE would have bothered with this is, currently, anyone's guess.Llyr Darkholme, Neriak loyalist
Baking ( 200 )
Brewing ( 192 )
Fishing ( 192 )
Fletching ( 174 )
Jewelcrafting ( 240 ) + trophy
Pottery ( 172 )
Research ( 200 )
Smithing ( 185 )
Tailoring ( 243 ) + trophy
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The patch message at the time stated:
- Tradeskill chance of failures changed - The higher your skill is over the trivial of the combine, the less likely you are to fail with a combine. This is a reduction on the chance to always fail.
It never publically guaranteed anything to be no-fail, that was just something leaked out from test. The ratio relationship idea has a lot of support (and as far as I know the no-fail idea has support), but technically they never said in any patch message that getting to a point would make something no-fail.
To the original question, I think most people covered it. I haven't noticed any differences, but then my tailoring isn't 250 yet.
--MyrronMyrron Lifewarder, <Celestial Navigators>, Retired
Grandmaster Tailor ( 250 ) Master Brewer ( 200 ) Master Fletcher ( 200 ) Master Jewelcrafter ( 200 ) Master Smith ( 200 ) Master Baker ( 191 ) Master Potter ( 190 )
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