Why are the skillups not consistant

[meiyo shiryu]

I am not understanding why skillups changed.
Here is my last 1000 combines of shadowscream armor and my skill ups

combines-----skillup pts-------STR/INT------Final smithing skill
------------------------------------------------------------------------
200-------------5---------------257/257--------188 (started to early)
200-------------7---------------257/257--------195
200-------------5---------------257/257--------200
200-------------19--------------280/280--------219
200-------------6---------------280/280--------225 <--after patch

As I understand it, there is a hump to get thru from about 190-220
Does anyone have an explaination why I was only able to get 6 points after getting 19 points? I would think it would only increase after the hump, especially after being able to raise my STR and INT

[Zeralenn]

Because the RNG is a fickle b*tch.

You seem to be expecting this to have a pattern or make sense, where repeated experiments with skilling up and skillup data shows that this is not the case.

No one can explain why it took me just a few combines to get from 193-194 but 105 to get from 194-195.

There are no secret patch nerfs. You just had a bad run. That's all.

...Zera

[Kronepsis]

Mind if I borrow your chart for a minute? Slightly modified.

combines-----skillup pts-------STR/INT------Final smithing skill
------------------------------------------------------------------------
200-------------5---------------257/257--------188 (started to early)
200-------------7---------------257/257--------195
200-------------5---------------257/257--------200
200-------------19--------------280/280--------219 <-- The anomaly!
200-------------6---------------280/280--------225 <--after patch

Let me put it this way. Not only do you appear to have come out of the hell levels unscathed, it was skill up heaven for you!

Look at those skill up points again. You average exactly 6 skill ups per 200 combines except for right before the patch, where you actually have MORE.

You just made a TON of 250 smiths incredibly jealous, I think.

Of course, I might be jumping the gun and you might actually still run into a speed bump skilling up later on. And then again, you don't really *mention* how many combines it was for each skill up either.

[Monodon]

Skillups

FIrst off this is not a flame, but the math actually shows that he had a total of 17 skillups over 600 combines prior to the 19. So by my math that comes to 35.29 combines per skillup. YIKES!

For the run of 19 the average coems to 10.52 combines per skillup.

The average number of combines per skillup for the entire list is 23.81 combines per skillup.

Not the greatest record, but as stated earlier the RNG is a fickle biotch.
I'm not so sure that stats over 255 will actually help at all with smithing or other tradeskill. This is a point of contention by some. Basically it can't hurt.

About 20 combines per skillup seems to be average from what I've seen in other posts and from my own experience. One piece of data that would help is if you listed the item that you were attempting for your skillups. It has been proposed that the trivial lvl of an item may play a role in skillups. If something is way above your skill then you won't get as many skillups. I personally have had the best skillup runs when the item was within 15 points of my skill, but I have also found that the last 3 skillups to trivial seem to go slower, so I generally move to the next item when I reach that point.

My point is that if you are making boots, which have the highest trivial of the shadowscream armor, then your skillups may be lower. I suggest trying to keep it within 15, but that's just me. Also there is a nice progression for 2 shadow 1 orb combines which will save you time farming.

Just my 2cp

Lal
smithing 234 (246 modified)

[Viken]

It wouldn't be random if there were any pattern to it.

[Lilosh]

It wouldn't be random if there were any pattern to it.

[Ilona]

Re: Skillups

The average number of combines per skillup for the entire list is 23.81 combines per skillup.

This is entirely normal.

[Dvinn]

Verant's RNG is flaming pile of monkey c--p.

With my smithing at 235, I made about 50 attempts at Tae Armor over a period of 2 months and ended up at the same skill of 235.

Combines 51-55 doing the same Tae Ew got me 5 straight skill-ups to 240. That's right, 236,237,238,239,240 all in a row. This is not randomness people, it's called a pattern. The RNG is about as broken as it could ever possibly be, but some ninnies on this board and Verant itself will tell you everthing is working as intended.

[scarbrowed]

I know I should not respond to this kind of message, but I don't see how 5 straight skillups is part of any pattern. In fact it seems pretty random to me, since you got 5 skillups in a row and I never did.

Perhaps it would be easier to understand if instead of random, we use it's synonym, unpredictable. If you got regularly 1 skillup every 21.3 combines, that would not be very unpredictable.

It's very much like in sports. A mathematician showed that a basketball player in the middle of a "streak" is not more likely to make his next shot than at any other time. "Streaks" and "going cold" are just part of the normal behavior of a true random number. If you want predictability, you will have to play chess instead.

[Xenephex]

It's very much like in sports. A mathematician showed that a basketball player in the middle of a "streak" is not more likely to make his next shot than at any other time.

Hmmm. I'd like to see that study. While I agree in general about the RNG and random numbers (I don't have a problem with it - I know it's unpredictable), I don't think that the exact same thing applies to basketball players on a 'streak'. There's more at work there than simple randomness - e.g. shot mechanics, confidence, etc.

If you've played basketball, you know that there are times you almost 'know' you can't miss (and you usually don't), and other times where you have no idea whether you're going to make it or not (and you usually miss).

[Mahlig]

Actually, it is *very* much like the basketball example. The times in basketball (as in the example) when you know you are gonna make the shot is confidence (what you mentioned earlier). That gives a "psychological" advantage (well, that is what they call it). It however does not grant you any superhuman powers of accuracy. Your *odds* of making the shot are no better on the streak than off it. You know how to "break out of a slump" when your shooting is off? Keep shooting. You know how to get *out* of a streak? Keep shooting (yeah, it's called "going cold"). If you do the same thing to fix both, does that make it a toggle?

[Xenephex]

Ummm.. shooting a basketball (or hitting a baseball, or a golf ball etc...) is not random numbers. If it were, then everyone in the world would shoot 3 pointers for the same percentage.

When you take a shot, you can be not squared up to the basket correctly, you may be letting your elbows splay out too much, you may not be focused on your target, the timing of your release may be off. You may be fatigued or you may be tense or anxious, both of which will affect your muscle reaction. There are a ton of things that can go wrong that will cause you to miss a higher percentage of your shots.

I (and a lot of other people) can watch a basketball player shoot a jump shot on television and 'know', to a high degree of accuracy, whether he is going to make the shot when he releases it.

Conversely (pun intended) there are times when you're not doing any of those things wrong, and you will tend to be at your peak of accuracy. You do not tend to drift in and out of correct shot-making to bad form at random. You either tend to have it together, or to be doing one or more things wrong, for some period of time. Hence streaks.

Sorry this has gotten so far off topic, but I maintain that while there is a good deal of difference between pure randomness and athletic endeavors, and it was on that basis that I was disputing the reported study in the earlier post.

[kiztent]

Read about Cantor dusts and other fun displays of non-randomness here:

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0140092501/qid=1058889547/sr=2-2/ref=sr_2_2/103-6068350-4435055

People seem to get all in a tizzy when the randomness isn't predictable. Whatever.

[meiyo shiryu]

combines-----skillup pts-------STR/INT------Final smithing skill
------------------------------------------------------------------------
200-------------5---------------257/257--------188 (started to early)
200-------------7---------------257/257--------195
200-------------5---------------257/257--------200
200-------------19--------------280/280--------219
200-------------6---------------280/280--------225 <--after patch
200-------------9---------------280/280--------234
200-------------8---------------280/280--------242

[eniamn]

Re: Skillups

Originally posted by Monodon
About 20 combines per skillup seems to be average from what I've seen in other posts and from my own experience. One piece of data that would help is if you listed the item that you were attempting for your skillups. It has been proposed that the trivial lvl of an item may play a role in skillups. If something is way above your skill then you won't get as many skillups. I personally have had the best skillup runs when the item was within 15 points of my skill, but I have also found that the last 3 skillups to trivial seem to go slower, so I generally move to the next item when I reach that point.

My point is that if you are making boots, which have the highest trivial of the shadowscream armor, then your skillups may be lower. I suggest trying to keep it within 15, but that's just me. Also there is a nice progression for 2 shadow 1 orb combines which will save you time farming.

i went from 2 to 135 in baking straight with fish rolls. got streaks of 8 and 9 in the begining and had one streak of 3 in the 120's. it slows down a lot but not sure if thats casue of the low level or the difference in skill. /shrug thought i'd post it for what its worth.
smithing i tried to stick closer to level cause it was cheaper. made a lot of dairy spoons and skipped filleting knives cause of the cost of the extra 2 peices of ore and the subcombines.