I had a miracle happen to me that I thought I would share

[dargrym]

Hello everyone,
this is my first post on this site but I have been secretly cruising it for about a year now. I just thought I would let everyone know that sometimes the RNG can be really really good to you. Yesterday I got bored playing eq so I decided to try my hand at making cultural armor. I have a dwarf smith named Dargrym, he is on the Antonius Bayle server and he is only level 5. I created him to make armor for my main character ( a level 52 halfling cleric ) and have been financing his smithing skill using my cleric. I have gotten his skill up to 168 natural and he has a geerlock as well. Well anyway, as i said, I got bored just killing mobs and stuff so I logged off of my cleric yesterday and logged in Dargrym, then I decided to go smith some cultural. I had four celestial tempers on me but hadn't quite made my infused sheets of brellium with them yet. I made my way to kaladim and proceeded to make the infused sheets. I failed the first combine ( of course losing the blue diamond celestial temper in the process ) but then I actually succeeded on making the other three and found out the trivial listed for them on this site is wrong, they are not trivial at beyond 183 skill, they were trivial to me at 168 + geerlock. After making my infused sheets of brellium I checked my supply of earthen tempers and realized I only had one earthen temper. I figured I had better go get something I can make with 3 of the infused sheets of brellium and one temper so I settled on the breastplate. I checked and double checked to make sure I had all the items ready and finally put it all into the cultural forge in kaladim. I sat there for a minute asking myself if I really wanted to lose those 3 blue diamonds and all that brellium and velium and the earthen temper in just one click......" ah, who cares" I thought to myself, " maybe you'll get lucky "......so I hit the combine button and BAM! my skill went up to 169 AND I HAD SUCCEEDED IN MAKING THE MISCHEVIOUS PLATEMAIL BREASTPLATE ON MY FIRST CULTURAL SMITHING TRY WITH ONLY A 168 SKILL !!!.....I am on such a high from that right now that I could barely sleep lastnight. just thought I would share that with everyone

[Pojodan]

Good ol' RNG.

I know of at least one person that decided they wanted a trophy of some sort, even though none of their tradeskills where above 20. They stockpiled 10 attempts worth, figuring they had a 50% chance of getting one given the 5% success rate on anything.
Managed to make 3 artisan seals and succeeded the first try at the trophy :shock:

~ Some people have all the luck, and then there's me.

[Farnyr]

Congrats on the skill up and breastplate! I hope you can fill my order(at cost!). Just kidding

And might I ad... NO NO NO! Succeeding at a trophy at a skill of 20, NO NO NO! Ive failed 3 times ranging from 234-240! NO NO NO! *Goes off to cry in the corner*

[Keymarad]

Congrats on your new BP

I dont believe anyone should be allowed to combine for a tradeskill trophy unless they have at least 200 skill. It's the only way to show you actually have GM skill besides word of mouth and reputation.

[Ilona]

That is just fantastic

/cheer

[Grimina]

I'll start out with...HUGE congratulations!!!

Then...I HATE you! *bonk* I failed on the BP TWICE yesterday at 249+geerlok /cry. Gimme back my luck, it's MINE I tell you!!

Grimina *heads off to pout in the corner*

[Seedling]

10x 5% chance is NOT 50%.

Succes chance is: 1-((1-succes)^tries)
where 0<=succes<=1 and tries>0

So 1-((1-0.05)^10)=1-(0.95^10)=1-0.60=0.4=40%

(I rounded up 0.95^10 to 0.60, it's actually 0,59873693923837890625 )

[OberonMiM]

wait 10x.05 is 50%

Given that with a 5% chance you will succeed 1 in 20 regardless of skill

with 10 tries you will have 10 tries in 20 to succeed making your chance of getting a trophy in those 10 tries 50%

[kiztent]

wait 10x.05 is 50%

Given that with a 5% chance you will succeed 1 in 20 regardless of skill

with 10 tries you will have 10 tries in 20 to succeed making your chance of getting a trophy in those 10 tries 50%

They're independant events. That is, if you failed one, the RNG doesn't check if you made or failed your last one. The chance for success is still the same.

The formula above is the right formula for calculating the chance of one or more successes 1-((1-success)^n)

[OberonMiM]

i was talking about the statistic chance of succeeding on one attempt with subpar skill (mainly under 205 where the chance is basically only the 5% base)

Therefore if you have only a 5% success rate and do 10 attempts theres a statistical 50% chance that one will succeed

Wasn't talking about the success per an individual attempt

[Ilona]

Therefore if you have only a 5% success rate and do 10 attempts theres a statistical 50% chance that one will succeed

If you have only a 5% success rate and you do 10 attempts, there is a statistical 40% chance to succeed, as shown in the calculation done by Seedling.

[Salash Penumbra]

I can't remember my advanced statistics and I couldn't understand the explainations above, but I know it's not 50%, the argument is simple:

If 10 attempts at 5% chance gives a total chance of 50%, then by the same logic 20 attempts at 5% chance gives a total chance of 100%, which we KNOW to be wrong.

Oh yeah, it's coming to me now... The chance to fail once = 0.95. So the chance to fail 10 times is 0.95^10 = 0.6 (rounded )

So the chance of NOT failing 10 times (ie suceeding atleast once) is 1 - 0.6 = 40%, yay! I can remember stats

[dargrym]

what is the chance

wow. I have never been very good at math myself so all this math stuff just confuses me.

now I am curious, can any of you figure out the chance of making the cultural bp on the very first try?

I only had a 168 smithing skill and only a 142 strenght at the time, I hope those figures are helpful in coming up with the answer, thanks.

[kiztent]

Re: what is the chance

wow. I have never been very good at math myself so all this math stuff just confuses me.

now I am curious, can any of you figure out the chance of making the cultural bp on the very first try?

I only had a 168 smithing skill and only a 142 strenght at the time, I hope those figures are helpful in coming up with the answer, thanks.

That's easy. It's 1 in 20. It's, not by coincidence, the chance that anyone with a modified skill below 220 will succeed at a given BD armour combine.

Your next attempt to make a BD BP will also have a 1 in 20 chance (there's not a statistical God living inside the RNG that determines since you had a 1/20 chance the first time and did it that you will fail the next 19 attempts). You may even succeed. The chance of succeeding on back to back BD armour attempts with skill below 220 is very low, but it's possible - the really neat thing is, once you made the first one, it doesn't count any more. Succeeding your first combine does not in any way effect any future combines you may do (at least if the RNG is really random). The chance of getting 4 skill ups in a row in the 200s is also very low, but that has happened too.