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I'd guess with 250 skill there is about a 50% chance of success. It took two tries for me to get my Smithing trophy at 244 skill (with geerlock). It took my friend two tries to get his Tinkering trophy with 220 skill. Seems though that most people have found that the Pottery trophy fails more often than the first. Perhaps it's just coincidence though.
Personally with the expense of these items, I wouldn't suggest trying them to 235 +5% at least.
I've asked and been told that they do not. I sometimes like to see things for myself, but I suppose I'd probably take the word of those who told me so on this one~
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