approx triv's of 250+ combines

[amarth]

Eq smiths,

Has anyone ever tried to calculate the trivial's of the items with a trivial of > 250?

I belive they would have an exact value to plug into the formula used. For instance:

100 sickles, skill from 210-216 w/ trophy (got lucky) (really 220-226)
made 21 (21% success)

40 sickles, skill from 226-227 w/ trophy (really 237-238)
made 15 (37.5% success)

And have heard of near perfect runs with smith's modified to 252.

I suspect the trivial of these item to be close to 253-255 range (no facts, just an guess)

Now, I know there has been tons of success rate gathering project and with information like that along with some backwards engineering on the formula's used in eq. It would seem possible to attempt to calculate these trivials.

Haven't been able to find any posted list or anything if anyone has information on this i would like to see it.

Thanks,

Amarth Amon
Smith on Innoruuk 227 and climbing.

[Eleena Transient]

After over 200 sickles, I'm at 60% on them. At 250 + trophy.

[Zhorn]

Hi
For sickles, if you plug 50% or 60% (at 252 skill) into the formula's in:

http://mboards.eqtraders.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=39

You can work out the approx trivials.

Likewise for BD cultural armor (est 42%-ish success at 252 skill).
And Tae Ew Armor (80%? success at 252 skill?).

Now obviously you would need to collect lots of peoples data on what their success rates were I guess.

Last time I mucked around calculating the Trivial on BD cultural (assuming 42% success at 252 skill) I got about 350 for the trivial. I think. I made a post somewhere..........

[amarth]

the formula for success (sorry, my searches didn't yield that) is:


success = skill - (.75 * triv) + 51.5

solving for triv we get

triv = (skill + 51.5 - success) / .75

lets plug in a skill of 252 and success rate of 5% (max trivial we could calculate)

triv = (252 +51.5 - 5) / .75

triv = 398

with 95% success

triv = (303.5 - 95) / .75

triv = 278

so do narrow down trivials between 278-251 we'd need smiths with less than a 252 modified smithing to post some success rates.

Q: any > 250 trivial items that 252 smiths seem to succeed on 95% of the time?



Sickles: 60% success = 325
BD cultural (all parts?) 42% success = 349
Tae Ew (parts?) 80% success = 298

and just for fun, my 37.5% success with sickles ....

triv = (238 + 51.5 - 37.5 ) / .75
tirv = 336 (looks like my failure rate was a little high)


Q2: anybody care to share with me more (detailed) success rates?

Amarth Amon

[Jascenta]

I average 60% as well. It really depends, sometimes I get lucky and my success is much highier, there are also times where I fail 4 times in a row .

My skill is 228 + 15% mod.

[wyrmbane_]

some rates

There is a lot of variation, and I stopped tracking this some time back, once I felt pretty confident with the numbers:

Mistletoe Cutting sickles at 252 skill - 53% Success rate - sometimes i hit 80, sometimes 25, but 53% is pretty consistent.

Blue diamond cultural - roughly a 40-42% success rate to confirm the other....however, nothing is more frustrating than going 0 for 4 on them pieces...

Night terror chainmail - I dont' have enough to know, and honestly haven't tracked it heavily. However, I make 4 pieces each run, and fail on 1 or 2 pieces each time. I estimate the sucess rate at 66%-70% on them.

Night terror platemail - see night terror chain

Hurricane chainmain - see night terror chain

tae ew chainmail / shields - fail maybe 1 in 5? 1 in 6? seems about 80% or 85% success rate on them. Now, if I can just get some more pristine scales.

wyrmbane
p.s. nothing worth than going 15 for 20 on blessed sickle blades at 252 skill.....really gives you faith in the system. )

[Kcalehc]

I believe that the curent formulas for success against trivial level are become quite inaccrate as you go below a certain value of trivial, ie they only hold (relatively) true only over a certain range of trivial values. So it is entirely plausible that this is the same in the other direction, which renders the discussion slightly academic at best.

Also, we have no need for such values as the skill level cannot be achieved (at this time at least), so what use is it really?

[Zhorn]

The reason for trying to determine (roughly) the trivials for items > 250 is so that people under 250 mod skill can work out what sort of chance they have if they do a combine now rather then waiting til they hit max mod skill.