Success Rate Change

[kronas]

Now ive had my bad streaks before, but this is beyond a streak to me. Prior to the last month and half, my success ration on doing Barbarian Cultural Armour was 80 - 90%. For the last 40 days its running at 10% or worse.
I am currently 250 skill, have gerlock smithing hammer, and 290 str/dex/wis.
Failing 7 out of eight visors, or 6 out of seven breastplates is unbearable. I am losing money left and right.

Has anyone else doing Barbarian cultural notice a change in success rate, or is it just two months of bad luck?

[krunt]

Ive just started doing Blue Diamond combines (dwarf) and witha 211+ geerlock i am hitting 40-50% sucsess. Maybe i am just getting lucky, but out of 11 combines i have 1 BP, (1 for 1) 1 legs (1 for 3) and 3 bracers ( 3 for 7), which is 45%. So again, maybe im just lucky here or maybe you are unlucky. Probably both.

[Wiggume]

I've noticed a decrease in the success rate of Halfling Cultural armor lately. Thought it was some bad luck but its not going away. Hasnt been too troublesome tho since its coinciding with the collapse of the BD market. BD's are going for 300p now. Another month and they will be VT like regular diamonds *crosses fingers

Leatherfoot haversacks are still uber easy. Ive made probably 80 now with 2 failures. Did a run of 17 a few days ago with no failures.

[Zhorn]

Re: Success Rate Change

Has anyone else doing Barbarian cultural notice a change in success rate, or is it just two months of bad luck?

I'd say a plain old streak of bad luck.

I only have 216 skill + geerlok.
2 days ago from 28 infused rings I got:
Tundra Helanic boots, arms, belt, shoulders, helm AND
Artificers sleeves, bracer.

Now at that skill I should have got maybe 2 pieces of armor, not 7!
(Note that 5 of those are 2 ring pieces!!)

So its just the fickle RNG I would say.

If you used to have a 80-90% success rate then you were lucky as hell!
I have seem GM smiths regularly quoting 40% success rates.
Guess it all balances out....

[Zopharr]

Not barb cultural, but BD cultural in general - I've had, if anything, a *better* than average success rate for the last 4-5 months or so. Well over 50% on dwarven BD cultural overall. About 50% on the ogre cultural.

(Also been having a lot of packet loss specific to Ogguk--wondering if I didn't have that packet loss if I'd be doing as well as on the dwarven.)

[OberonMiM]

Your success rate was 80-90%???

Sounds like the RNG has finall caught up with you and the universe is balancing itself.

That sounds like an INSANELY good success rate. Good things cant last forever

[irtuk]

80 - 90 ?

I am flat zero 0 / 24 on bd cultural. 200 skill + geerlock.

Figured I would at least pop one **** thing out of 24 but no.

[Ilona]

At skill 222 (well, skilled up to 222 on first attempt), I recently went:
1/4 greaves
1/3 vambraces
1/4 breastplate

Blessed Full Mithril armour

From what I have heard, the average success seems to be about 50% on BD cultural at max skill. If you have had a long run of 80-90% success, I think the RNG is finally catching up to you

[Lupoman]

i feel yer pain irtuk.

I also am at 200+geerlock and 0 for 12

[Belkram Marrwolf]

Of late...

I was making RZ armor...

Legs
Arms
Face
Head
Shoulders
Neck
Bracer

Add em up thats 12 BDs worth of stuff, took me 40 BDs to make it all. Legs--5, Arms---3, Face--2, Head--1, Shoulder---4, Neck---3, Bracer--2; the other 2 BDs I lost to trivial pottery and brewing conversions.



Then I was asked to make 3 Emarr pieces for a bard, dont ask heh

2 bracer and 1 boots, took 10 BDs to make 3 pieces working out to less than 33 percent success rate.


This is at 250 skill with a GM hammer and 285 wisdom and Str and Dex. Its the only conditions I smith under. Seems like every 3 or 4 patches the RNG just tanks on me and I can look forward to losing money left, right and center. If this continues to be the rate though expect prices to go up or the armor supply itself to dry up on human cultural, there isnt enough Essence of Sunlight in the market to maintain this sort of fail rate indefinitely. But Im leaning towards it being a RNG hangover.


Belkram

[Hateborn]

Success change

Funnily enough I was coming here to ask a question about success change ... but rather the other way round.

For no logical reason I decided to use the spare humming orbs I had from completing my humming luclinite mallet quest in 2 attempts at shadowscream. I attempted a collar and a shoulder - and succeeded on the collar.

My strength was 201 with a geerlok and a skill of 147.

Bouyed by success I decided to experiment with (human) cultural and attempted 3 (unimbued) field plate shoulders - with 2 successes.

Now obviously this is a tiny sample, and maybe I got ridiculously lucky with the RNG, or are such success rates typical (and its just the skill ups that are infuriatingly difficult to get?)

[Raiyaeq]

It's RNG.

I had 6/6 pieces on high elf bd cultural armor one time (right after patch).

I also had 15/26 the other day, which could be better if I didn't failed 4/5 arms.

But from the experience, I don't feel like anything has changed. It's just RNG didn't like you.