Ogre Cultural, what are my chances?

[Kradlum]

Currently I'm 201 smithing, +Geerlok. I got a whole bunch of cheap Blue Diamonds, and careful shopping means I'm getting my Velium blocks for about 50pp. I have almost a stack of blood temper.

Apart from that, I am mostly penniless. I'm currently taking the Shadowscream skillup route. My guild is not tough enough to get me a better smithing modifier.

I'm desperate for more AC, since I want to get ahead of my guild leader and guild main tank (I'm an ogre, I don't DO assists!)

So, my question is... amongst my many questions are... do I have any chance of success if I attempt to make Crimson Darkscale Bracers? If so, what sort of chance, 1 in 10, 1 in 20? Should I skill up more, if so, to what skill?

[Ilona]

At 214 skill plus geerlok, my pally did a few tries at BD cultural (high elven)
1/1 bracer
1/1 boots
0/5 sleeves
0/1 bracer

With enough tries for 20 attempts, you MAY get a piece of armour, you MAY get 2, or you MAY get none at all.

I only attempted the above because I'd had a very good run on the WE cultural (on my druid) just in advance Hoped my luck would hold when changing character :P

[Zhorn]

From what I've read, given the armor is trival > 250....

You'd have a 5% min chance of success.
So you would expect to get 1 in 20. However you could get zero.

At MAX skill (which would be 240 + geerlok for you) I have read that you have a 42%(??) chance of success on BD cultural armor (from memory).

Check out this thread in the FAQ section: http://mboards.eqtraders.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=39

Does that mean the estimated trival for BD armor is 348?
If so then here are some chances for success (maybe).

Modified Skill and Chance (note that it can't be less than 5%).
200 5%
210 5%
220 10.5%
230 20.5%
240 30.5%
252 42.5%

Kind of disconcerting...

Please correct me if my maths/reasoning is all wrong!

Zhorn Spiritwalker
Prophet on The Tribunal

[Iwar_VZ]

I did 2 bracers out of 19 tries at 210 skill with geerlok, I was prolly lucky.

[Kradlum]

Thanks for the replies... I had been trying to find that page with the success calculations, but obviously looking in the wrong place.

It would seem that my skill of 201 + Geerlok really only gives me no better chance than someone with 0 skill in smithing, so maybe I should wait until I get to 210 before I try.

Now, how can I increase my smithing skill when all my packs are full? Roll on the 24th!!!

[Kradlum]

As a Post Script - I attempted 2 more combines of Crimson Darkscale Bracer last night, bringing my total to 4 attempts. I have to admit to having my eyes closed both times I hit the combine button. The first time I failed, the second time I got a success!!! Which was just as well since I had less than 5gp left in the whole world.

It was a real buzz, after 2 crappy days trying to farm shadowscream components (killed by green Grimlings! oh the ignominy), to finally have in my hands a piece of Ogre cultural armour that I have made myself.

[Ilona]

Congratulations!!

Armour you made yourself gives a special kind of buzz