smithing combines flawed since newest expansion?

[kel]

Ever since the latest patch (DoD expansion on 09-13), all my triv 300+ have failed. I have smithing 256 with AA3 & salvage 2. I did triv 316 combine twice and it failed. I did triv 386 combine 5 times and every single one failed. What are the odds of that happening? Anyone see any similiar high level tradeskill combine issues?

[Twistagain]

Ever since the latest patch (DoD expansion on 09-13), all my triv 300+ have failed. I have smithing 256 with AA3 & salvage 2. I did triv 316 combine twice and it failed. I did triv 386 combine 5 times and every single one failed. What are the odds of that happening? Anyone see any similiar high level tradeskill combine issues?

I can't speak to whether anything's broken or not, but here's the odds:

You don't mention any geerlok/trophy, but I'm assuming you have 5%.
Your chance to succeed on the 316 is 91.25%; on the 386 it's 65%.

The chance you would fail all of the combines is 8.75%^2 * 35%^5 = about .004% or 1 in 25000.

[Verdandi]

This is a question, and not about anything in the database. Moving to Smithing.

[eqblackrose]

Adjusted Skill : 320 , Blacksmith Mastery 3.

Made a Grandmaster BP successfully (386)

[Maevenniia]

After every single patch, someone complains “so-and-so skill is broken because I failed too many combines!”

The skill is not broken. But failing that many combines does suck /comfort



HOWEVER, I have a theory….that patches reset the RNG to a "zero" state, and when people first start combining after a patch the RNG is somehow less apt to result in success or skillups.

Then, as the RNG is used more and more, when it’s been a little while since a patch, I personally find the RNG is a lot more accommodating.

I dunno, maybe the RNG is just pissed at not being able to log in for 11 hours, like everyone else….

[Leana]

I can't speak to whether anything's broken or not, but here's the odds:

You don't mention any geerlok/trophy, but I'm assuming you have 5%.
Your chance to succeed on the 316 is 91.25%; on the 386 it's 65%.

The chance you would fail all of the combines is 8.75%^2 * 35%^5 = about .004% or 1 in 25000.

Actually, you should have said 0.004 instead of 0.004%. That altered your results by two orders of magnitude. The odds are actually much closer to 250 to 1.

Now, if you consider that probably in the game more than 250 people have made that many combines since the release, then it becomes much more believable that at least one person has a failing streak. I've had them before. My friend that works GM armor has had them before. The only thing that is different between our streaks and this one is that neither of us had our streak immediately following a release. As Maevenniia said, someone claims the RNG is broken after almost every single release.

Leana Soulwarden
Blacksmith
Inevitable Storm
The Seventh Hammer

[Twistagain]

Actually, you should have said 0.004 instead of 0.004%. That altered your results by two orders of magnitude. The odds are actually much closer to 250 to 1.

Nope.
8.75% = .0875
35% = .35

.0875^2 = .007656
.35^5 = .005252
.007656 * .005252 = .000040 = .004%

(Note: all results to the nearest millionth.)

[Leana]

Interesting. I had a data entry problem in my spreadsheet and checked it 3 times. Yet missed it. You are correct in that it is indeed 0.004%.

Still, the sample size is way to small, and the primary failures are in the hardest to make item. Interestingly, I could point you to a post where someone with 300 skill had 10 consecutive GM failures. This person did not mention anything about a release.

Leana Soulwarden
Blacksmith
Inevitable Storm
The Seventh Hammer

[Baltazor Goldsinger]

Nothing is broken.... move along please.