Anybody having excessive GM Cultural Combine Failures??

[krenky]

Hiya all!

I have failed the last 8 GM Cultural combines. I am attempting to make GM Snowborn Greaves/Cuirass'. I have never failed so many in a row before. I have made them before and failed 2/3 or maybe 50%, but never this bad.

Has anybody had similar problems?

My Augs are runnning 4/10 ATM as well...

Some of my Details, 300 Smithy, Smithy Mastery 3, Salvage 3 and using Trophy. Strength is 420.

What would my failure % be on a 386 trivial combine?

Thanks in advance for your feedback.

[Xulan]

Hiya all!

I have failed the last 8 GM Cultural combines. I am attempting to make GM Snowborn Greaves/Cuirass'. I have never failed so many in a row before. I have made them before and failed 2/3 or maybe 50%, but never this bad.

Has anybody had similar problems?

My Augs are runnning 4/10 ATM as well...

Some of my Details, 300 Smithy, Smithy Mastery 3, Salvage 3 and using Trophy. Strength is 420.

What would my failure % be on a 386 trivial combine?

Thanks in advance for your feedback.

Ouch =/ So far, if you read the GM bp/legs success thread below, you'll see that the average success rate is about 60%. My worst run so far was 4 leg attempts to make one pair of legs, and man those 12 scales hurt. I can't imagine 32 =(

[Angelsyn]

Hiya all!

I have failed the last 8 GM Cultural combines. I am attempting to make GM Snowborn Greaves/Cuirass'. I have never failed so many in a row before. I have made them before and failed 2/3 or maybe 50%, but never this bad.

Has anybody had similar problems?

My Augs are runnning 4/10 ATM as well...

Some of my Details, 300 Smithy, Smithy Mastery 3, Salvage 3 and using Trophy. Strength is 420.

What would my failure % be on a 386 trivial combine?

Thanks in advance for your feedback.

Question:

Did you recently purchase Smithing Mastery?

Was your previously higher success rate from before you had Mastery?

[krenky]

I had smithy mastery before I started to make the GM Cultural.

it seems to have been in the last week or so that I have had these failures.

[Reorx]

At a 60% success rate you're running a small 0.06% chance (1 in 1500) to fail 8 combines in a row. Its a low chance, but not unreasonable to see.

Note that if the success chance was actually 95% the chance to fail 8 combines in a row would be 1 in 25 billion...

[Phantron]

You wouldn't have 95% success in the first place with just 315 skill because (386 - 315 - 50)/2 = 10% to fail.

I had like a string of 6 fails but I also have a string of 10+ BP/Leg successes. It all evens out as long as your money/scales don't run out first.

[Rhumba]

I'll continue to say, the calculator is borked then...

Accoring to the calculator your success rate should be.

Ajusted Skill = 315
Success chance = 88.5%

What are you chances of failing 8 in a row with that success rate.

I failed 6 in a row when I should have had a 79 percent sucess rate. So you are not alone.

The only ones that seem to be close to what the calculator says are around 250 skill and no mastery aa's.

[Mannwin Woobie]

According to what we have heard, they have added an additional parameter of a Minimum Fail Rate, or something of the sort, which knocks everyone down to 60% or so on these. So all that skilling up and mastery aa's have been wasted :P

[krenky]

Just an update....

Did 4 more curaiss combines.. got one success in four.

So I am now 1/12 successes... Great for crippling my finances.

I have had a bit more success with the augs, I am 7/10 successes.

The augs seem to be working ok, but the GM armours are way out of whack!!

[Rhumba]

I have had a bit more success with the augs, I am 7/10 successes.

The augs seem to be working ok, but the GM armours are way out of whack!!

That's still below where you should be... Yes they are better but nowhere near 88 percent.

[Twistagain]

You wouldn't have 95% success in the first place with just 315 skill because (386 - 315 - 50)/2 = 10% to fail.

I get success rate as 315 - .75*(386) + 51.5 = 77%. (From Skill - .75*Trivial + 51.5 = Success Rate.) Doesn't take caps into account, but what's the formula you are using? (Trivial - Skill - 50)/2?

[Phantron]

Hmmm, I guess I was looking at the difficulty instead of the success rate. I was calculating the fail rate which is why there's a 1/2 at the end. I think of success rate like this:

1 more skill = 1 % chance to make
A combine is yellow when your skill is trivial -50 or higher
I have never noticed any significant fail rate on a yellow combine that doesn't have an increased min fail rate so I assumed as soon as a combine hits yellow, you fail only 5% of the time.
Therefore fail rate is (trivial - skill - 50) (divide by 2 if mastery 3) and success = 1 - fail (with fail min capped at 5%).

So using the correct formula Skill - .75*Trivial + 51.5 formula, skill = trivial -50, you'd get 0.25*trivial + 1.5% = success rate.

If trivial is 386, then success rate is 98% so my formula underestimate by 3% so I guess it's a freak accident it terms out to be a good estimate for this skill level.

At any rate, his factual success % is 1-[(1-.77)/2] = 88.5% because he has mastery 3.