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6 at a time vs. 1 at a time?

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  • 6 at a time vs. 1 at a time?

    I have around 24 metallic drake scales saved up now and am going to go on a combining run when I get some time, hopefully this week.

    So the million dollar question is, what is better to do when making sheets? 6 at a time, 3 at a time or 1 at a time? I'm a 300 (+5%) smith with smithing mastery 3, but no salvage.

    Thanks in advance for any insights!

  • #2
    Originally posted by Drukin
    I have around 24 metallic drake scales saved up now and am going to go on a combining run when I get some time, hopefully this week.

    So the million dollar question is, what is better to do when making sheets? 6 at a time, 3 at a time or 1 at a time? I'm a 300 (+5%) smith with smithing mastery 3, but no salvage.

    Thanks in advance for any insights!
    Statistically, they are the same. The 6-fer is cheaper, slightly, than the 3-fer, which is in turn cheaper than the 1-fer. So, barring any "bad feeling about this" or other random superstitions, do the 6.

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    • #3
      Over the long run, all three types of combines will give you the same success/fail rate.

      Over the short run, though, it's a different story. A single failure can result in a loss of one scale, three scales, or six scales. If you're dealing with GM armor, then the cost of the associated bricks is trivial; compared to the value of a scale, the savings are negligible.

      Personally, I always do the one-at-a-time combines. That way, if the RNG is feeling cranky and decides to give me a fail, I only lose one scale.
      Sir KyrosKrane Sylvanblade
      Master Artisan (300 + GM Trophy in all) of Luclin (Veeshan)
      Master Fisherman (200) and possibly Drunk (2xx + 20%), not sober enough to tell!
      Lightbringer, Redeemer, and Valiant servant of Erollisi Marr

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      • #4
        The easiest way to answer this for yourself is by doing a simple risk assessment. What is the most you can stomach losing in one shot? 1, 3 or 6? Think of it in the worst case and you'll answer your own question =)

        Master Artisan Xulan Du'Traix
        Dark Elven Scourge Knight
        Sanctus Arcanum
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        • #5
          Originally posted by KyrosKrane
          Over the short run, though, it's a different story. A single failure can result in a loss of one scale, three scales, or six scales. If you're dealing with GM armor, then the cost of the associated bricks is trivial; compared to the value of a scale, the savings are negligible.
          While this is true, you also need to look at it from the reverse angle. A single success on the 6 combine negates the possibility of the 5 other failures that may still be looming had you done the 1 combine instead.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Twistagain
            Statistically, they are the same. The 6-fer is cheaper, slightly, than the 3-fer, which is in turn cheaper than the 1-fer. So, barring any "bad feeling about this" or other random superstitions, do the 6.
            That depends on your race I guess. At least for High Elves, its cheaper to do single combines.

            A small brick of mithril costs 6.1pp, a large brick (for the 3fer) costs 18.5pp, and a block costs 55pp.

            3fer and 1fer are about the same, but the 6fer is noticeably more expensive.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Twistagain
              While this is true, you also need to look at it from the reverse angle. A single success on the 6 combine negates the possibility of the 5 other failures that may still be looming had you done the 1 combine instead.
              If you're anywhere near (or over) the trivial on the bar combine, it is far more likely that you'd fail one out of the six than only succeed at one out of the six.

              Which is why I always do one at a time - I'd rather have the random 1 in 20 (at 242 skill if talking GM, which for MDS's we are) fail occur on a single shot combine than a 3 or a 6 shot combine.

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              • #8
                As it's been said, statistically the % should be the same. However, I would still, and always will do them one at a time - regardless of any vendor sold cost savings.

                I can stomach having 2 failures in a row doing the one shot combines, its tough, but I can - however, having 2 failures in a row on a 6 shot would be brutal.
                Sunburnt Dmize - 80 Druid - D-Ro
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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Drukin
                  I have around 24 metallic drake scales saved up now and am going to go on a combining run when I get some time, hopefully this week.

                  So the million dollar question is, what is better to do when making sheets? 6 at a time, 3 at a time or 1 at a time? I'm a 300 (+5%) smith with smithing mastery 3, but no salvage.

                  Thanks in advance for any insights!
                  Many people have said 'statistically the same', which is only partially true. The expectation of the number of sheets produced is the same either way; but the *variance* is where the difference is, and deciding between different variances is essentially down to your personal risk preference.

                  It's a similar question to this: Would you rather have a dollar, or $0 / $2 depending on the flip of a fair coin? Or would you rather have a lottery ticket with a one in a million chance of winning a million dollars? In each case, your statistical *expectation* is the same, but it's easy to see that these are different propositions.

                  Here are some nice graphs to illustrate your options. I have assumed a 95% success rate for all bomines, by the way; I don't know if this is correct, but the principle stands anyway.

                  24 attempts at singles: 8 attempts at trebles: 4 attempts at 6s:


                  As you can see, doing singles means you most likely won't get 24, but you should get at least 21, probably at least 22. Do them in 6s and you have a 81% chance of getting a perfect result, but the rest of the time you will obviously get at most 18.

                  The question you have to ask yourself is: Do I feel lucky?
                  Nichola Smith
                  Archon of Erollisi Marr
                  Tunare

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                  • #10
                    Nichola has it just right -- doing it in small batches is a form of risk diversification or hedge -- you won't be as likely to maximize your output, but you lower the risk of a catastrophe.

                    BTW, there is a fairly large behavorial economics literature on this that shows that people are risk seeking for large but unlikely gains (ie they pay MORE than the expected value for a shot at winning a big jackpot) and are risk averse for large but unlikely losses (ie they over-pay for insurance for unlikely events). "Don't put all your eggs in one basket" is the common adage to describe why most people will probably prefer doing 24 singles to 4 sixes - they'd rather give up a chance at a slightly better outcome (24 versus, say, 22) to avoid a bad outcome (18).
                    Last edited by andyhre; 07-27-2005, 12:57 PM.
                    Andyhre playing Guiscard, 78th-level Ranger, E`ci (Tunare)
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                    with occasion to call upon Gnomedeguerre, 16th-level Wizard, Master Tinker, E`ci (Tunare)


                    and in shouting range of Vassl Ofguiscard, 73rd-level Enchanter, GM Jewelcrafter, E`ci (Tunare)

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                    • #11
                      Salvage makes the 6 combines less risky so far as distribution goes.

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                      • #12
                        Do three at a time. I'm sure it's just luck, but I've failed 3 single combines, but never a three combine. I've done roughly each equally, and as the above poster said, you'll have a better chance at salvaging them in the long run with 3 than 1.

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                        • #13
                          Well for what it's worth, I did 4 x 6 scale combines with no failures (24 scales total) and 5 single scale combines with a single failure. Of course I then turned around and failed on 3 Greave combines - doh.

                          1 / 1 BP (3)
                          1 / 4 Greaves (12)
                          2 / 2 Bracer (2)
                          1 / 1 Boots (2)
                          1 / 1 Gloves (1)
                          1 / 1 Helm (2)
                          1 / 2 Sleeves (2)

                          And 5 sheets to spare.

                          I STILL don't know, going forward, what I will do... 1, 3 or 6 at a time. The triples really look appealing to me though for some reason.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Drukin
                            I STILL don't know, going forward, what I will do... 1, 3 or 6 at a time. The triples really look appealing to me though for some reason.
                            If you can stomach losing 3 in one shot (it will happen eventually) then do 3.

                            Master Artisan Xulan Du'Traix
                            Dark Elven Scourge Knight
                            Sanctus Arcanum
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