Cultural failure rates

[Erisea]

Hi,

I've not posted to these boards before, but I've been hanging around the site and the boards for a while.

I'm a High Elf smith on Firiona Vie, and my skill is currently at 180. I should be able to get to 188 with a final FS push when I feel the urge. I did have a Geerlock smithing hammer at one point, but it's disappeared, and no GM has returned it despite my petition. I intend to get another.

I have been asked by a Guildmate to craft some Blessed Artkeeper's Chain. This is listed as >250 trivial, but I was wondering if anyone had any idea how much over 250 the trivial might be. I've tried looking around the boards and I've used the search function, and I can't find anything.

As I see it at the moment, if I get to 188 and get a Geerlock, then if the trivial were exactly 250, then my success rate would be about 61%, which isn't too bad. So, I was wondering approximately what success rates people have been getting on this armour at what skill.

My guildmate would appear to be happy if I can achieve a success rate of 20% - I've worked out this would equate to trivials of about 300. I need to speak more closely with him about what he can afford and what he can farm, but I'd really appreciate some information about this gear.

(Unfortunately, I won't be able to wear the stuff myself - I'm a wizard who follows Solusek Ro, and none of the good high end cultural fo High Elfs is much use to me. I'd dearly love Sol Ro cultural to be introduced...)

[Aleena]

Based on my own success rate skilling up on cultural. Id say you have between a 1 and 5% chance of success, depending on how good the RNG is to you.

Aleena.

[kiztent]

Skill 220 is commonly regarded as the cut off point for 10 percent success. Success rates of around 1 in 3 are reported at 250.

[Penrif]

Contact me in game, we'll work something out that's far better then attempting tons of times.

Penrif
244 Smithing
62 Cleric of Resolution
Firiona Vie

[Eleena Transient]

At max skill (252, 255, whatever the 250 +5% caps at) I'm 42% on over 100 combines. I remember reading that success % drops off a 1% per skill point at the higher levels. So you need 219 effective skill before you start seeing better then minimum success rate (5%). With a geerlock, that works out to 209 raw skill.

So, you have about 30 skill ups before you have any better chance at the armor then one that never picked up the hammer.

For 20% success you need 219 raw (for 230 effective)

[ArrakeenNaedShoj]

As I see it at the moment, if I get to 188 and get a Geerlock, then if the trivial were exactly 250, then my success rate would be about 61%, which isn't too bad. So, I was wondering approximately what success rates people have been getting on this armour at what skill.

And just so you know, the listed trivial, does not always affect your success rates. Many items, like Fine Steel, and "old" style cultural, reach the maximum success rate of 95% well before they go trivial, while others like leather padding, or Folded Sheets of metal, do not reach the maximum success rate until 20 or more points after they become "trivial". The number the new cultural items could trivial at 251, or 550 and we would never really be able to tell the difference.

But people have been reporting success rates between 40 and 60 percent over time at max skill, and the consensus is a 1% drop per skill point from there. Which means that to get beyond the base 5% success rate that every smith(even a level 0) would have, you will need to get your (modified) skill level somewhere between 200 and 215. To get to where you succeed more than a third of the time (which would be about the break even point depending), you would need to get your (modified) skill somewhere between 220 and 240. But even at max skill there is still a chance of getting a large failure run on your first set of combines and breaking the bank before you even begin.

Translation, if you aren't able/willing to raise your skill another 45 points or so(The HARDEST 45 points), find yourself a 230+ smith and work out what you can.

[Unnone]

From the data that was posted on the old message board, I can give you a couple numbers.


Success rate at 200 or less skill on new cultural recipes: 2 in 42 combines.


40 percent at 242-250 skill, with 5 percent geerlok. (40.734 percent)

As an interesting aside, plate arm combines averaged out to only 32.08 percent at 242-250 +5%, making me happy that I'm not the only one to experience arm hell.

Find a higher level smith. Morning dew is too big a pain to relentlessly slam through high elf cultural.

[Penrif]

Find a higher level smith. Morning dew is too big a pain to relentlessly slam through high elf cultural.

As are blue diamonds, at least here on FV.

Penrif
244 Smithing
62 Cleric of Resolution
Firiona Vie

[Erisea]

Thanks, everyone. It seems the rates are about what I'd figured as "worst case scenario". I've told my guildmate that it just isn't going to work.

Penrif, thanks for the offer. I'll advise my "client" to look for you.