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Cultural Armor trivial rate increased?

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  • #1

    Cultural Armor trivial rate increased?

    Is it just me or has the failure rate on Cultural Armor doubled in the last several month. I have noticed a significant increase in failure rates on Human Cultural Armor. I have been making Cultural Armor for nearly 2 years and since the intoduction of the new UI it seems at least to me that the failure rate on armor has at the very least doubled.

    Just wondering if its me or if anyone else has noticed a big difference.

    Eadwulf
    250 Smith of Tunare server
    Tags: None
  • #2
    We can't really substantiate this unless we get some cold, hard numbers (namely, something to the order of 500+ trials). Until then, it's just subjective experiences, really. I think we all know just how fickle that random number generator is, and it's possible that you're just experiencing a bit of bad luck. In any case, a sample size of just 5-10 isn't really enough to say one way or another.

    -Annalina
    "Though unreceived and scoffed at through the years,
    Though made the butt of ridicule and jest,
    Though held aloft for mockery and jeers,
    Denied by those of transient power possessed,
    Insulted by the insolence of lies,
    Truth never dies."

    -Author unknown

    Comment

    • #3
      Upon reaching skill 242, I've started making Blessed Full Mithril for friends (and one piece for myself).

      First session:
      With Bracers: Failed twice, succeeded the third time.
      With Boots: Succeeded twice.

      Second session:
      With Vambraces: Succeeded Once.
      With Girdle: Succeeded Once.

      Now I've got 57 Celestial Tempers (and even more Velium) waiting on enchanted Mithril.

      And I've probably jinxed myself by posting this.
      Angelsyn Whitewings, Cleric of Tunare for 66! Seasons.
      Grandmistress Smith - 300, Grandmistress Tailor - 300, Potter - 300, Jeweler - 300, Brewer - 200, Baker - 200, Fletcher - 200, Fisherwoman - 169
      Keyne Falconer, Paladin of Erollisi Marr for 66 Seasons.
      Grandmistress Baker - 300, Grandmistress Blacksmith - 300, Potter - 200, Brewer - 139, Tailor - 91

      Comment

      • #4
        The fail rate seems to me to be 50%, same as always.

        Comment

        • #5
          As of a long time ago, like a solid year or more ago, I was failing ogre cultural plate bracers 9 out of 10 times. Over a run of like 40 or 50 I guess. So much so that I refused to make them anymore for people.

          A few people confirmed how bad the success rate was for cultural plate wrists, yet others had no problems.

          So that goes to show you that the failure rate can get very high even as of a long time ago, and second, that people's experiences vary widely.

          Without a really solid set of numbers, it's hard to judge whether what you're experiencing is out of line.

          Personally, I'm thinking that if they don't lower the tribute values for this stuff drastically, they might somehow nerf the success rate. I'm not sure they want us able to get value out of our skills anymore in general unless we're in plane of time or the highest GoD zones, but I'm even less sure they would want us to gain what remaining value we can out of cultural armor by turning it in to the tribute master. I wouldn't be surprised if they would be just as content with making cultural combines entirely pointless.

          So I've been kind of waiting for a hammer to drop on the success rate, or the tribute value. Who knows, maybe both?

          Comment

          • #6
            Did another run the other night...

            Succeeded:
            2 Blessed Full Mithril BPs.
            2 Blessed Full Mithril Greaves.
            1 Blessed Full Mithril Cloak.
            2 Blessed Full Mithril Gauntlets.
            1 Blessed Full Mithril Vambraces.
            1 Blessed Full Mithril Boots.
            1 Blessed Full Mithril Bracer.
            1 Blessed Artkeeper's Tunic.
            1 Blessed Artkeeper's Leggings.
            1 Full Mithril Bracer.

            Failed:
            1 Blessed Full Mithril Gauntlets.
            2 Blessed Full Mithril Bracers.

            Bracers are just a PITA.
            Angelsyn Whitewings, Cleric of Tunare for 66! Seasons.
            Grandmistress Smith - 300, Grandmistress Tailor - 300, Potter - 300, Jeweler - 300, Brewer - 200, Baker - 200, Fletcher - 200, Fisherwoman - 169
            Keyne Falconer, Paladin of Erollisi Marr for 66 Seasons.
            Grandmistress Baker - 300, Grandmistress Blacksmith - 300, Potter - 200, Brewer - 139, Tailor - 91

            Comment

            • #7
              Another run this afternoon...

              Succeeded:

              1 Grandmaster's Smithing Hammer (1st try).
              1 Blessed Artkeeper's Coif.
              1 Blessed Full Mithril Vambraces.

              Failed:
              5 Blessed Artkeeper's Gloves.
              1 Blessed Full Mithril Greaves.
              1 Blessed Full Mithril Gauntlets.
              1 Blessed Full Mithril Pauldrons.
              1 Blessed Full Mithril Girdle.

              Okay, so Blessed Artkeeper's Gloves and all Bracers are a PITA!
              Angelsyn Whitewings, Cleric of Tunare for 66! Seasons.
              Grandmistress Smith - 300, Grandmistress Tailor - 300, Potter - 300, Jeweler - 300, Brewer - 200, Baker - 200, Fletcher - 200, Fisherwoman - 169
              Keyne Falconer, Paladin of Erollisi Marr for 66 Seasons.
              Grandmistress Baker - 300, Grandmistress Blacksmith - 300, Potter - 200, Brewer - 139, Tailor - 91

              Comment

              • #8
                Incidentally, I suspect your percentage chance of success is equal to:

                (Your modified appropriate tradeskill)/(the trivial rating of item)

                Unfortunately, I cannot confirm this; the trivial failure chance is another matter entirely. I'll try to figure that one out once I find the time to do so . . .

                -Annalina
                "Though unreceived and scoffed at through the years,
                Though made the butt of ridicule and jest,
                Though held aloft for mockery and jeers,
                Denied by those of transient power possessed,
                Insulted by the insolence of lies,
                Truth never dies."

                -Author unknown

                Comment

                • #9
                  The RNG cares not for your skill!

                  Succeeded on another Blessed Full Mithril BP & Greaves this afternoon... no other attempts, as I'm out of Celestial Tempers!
                  Angelsyn Whitewings, Cleric of Tunare for 66! Seasons.
                  Grandmistress Smith - 300, Grandmistress Tailor - 300, Potter - 300, Jeweler - 300, Brewer - 200, Baker - 200, Fletcher - 200, Fisherwoman - 169
                  Keyne Falconer, Paladin of Erollisi Marr for 66 Seasons.
                  Grandmistress Baker - 300, Grandmistress Blacksmith - 300, Potter - 200, Brewer - 139, Tailor - 91

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Hmm..I am scared to try any BD cultural now at 210. Dont want to waste those Royal tempers if I am gonna fail so much. Back to non-culturual and EVB's I guess.
                    Samoht Farstrider
                    ---------------------
                    Baking 200
                    Brewing 200
                    Fletching 200
                    Jewelcraft 182
                    Pottery 186
                    Smithing 215
                    Tailoring 194

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Dark Prince Regent

                      I haven't noticed any real decrease in sucess rates.

                      I'm currently 1/23 on things but the one sucess I did have taught me the recipe and put the trivial into my UI for me. 335 I think was the number I can double check when I get home. But the point of it is with a trivial level so high over what our skills can be maxed out. Don't let it discourage you. The RNG might just give you a rough time of things on a run or five But the point is that you can make the items you want. Providing you don't mind the cost. It's kinda neat to just say. Hey look at what I have, and I made it myself!
                      70 Nemesis and Infiltrator
                      Master Poison Maker
                      Expert Jeweler
                      Expert Fletcher
                      Expert Brewer
                      Expert Smith

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Annalina Romanov
                        Incidentally, I suspect your percentage chance of success is equal to:

                        (Your modified appropriate tradeskill)/(the trivial rating of item)

                        Unfortunately, I cannot confirm this; the trivial failure chance is another matter entirely. I'll try to figure that one out once I find the time to do so . . .

                        -Annalina
                        Good theory but I see a small flaw.

                        a 335 skill PoP item (lets take Eathweave Pantaloons) would be 252/335 or ~75% success according to this formula.

                        I WISH I had that success rate it seems more like half that at best.

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          But isn't that the small sample size again?

                          -Annalina
                          "Though unreceived and scoffed at through the years,
                          Though made the butt of ridicule and jest,
                          Though held aloft for mockery and jeers,
                          Denied by those of transient power possessed,
                          Insulted by the insolence of lies,
                          Truth never dies."

                          -Author unknown

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            I am gambling on the "good day", "bad day" theory.

                            I have the parts (except completed Emblem) needed for Livestone Plate Greaves. I'm also 1 Liquefied Earth away from having the parts (again, except the completed Emblem) needed for Livestone Chain Leggings.

                            My plan is to get the Emblems made up, then once I get the last Liquefied Earth I need... I will make a few pieces of Blessed Full Mithril.

                            If my success rate is very high, I will gate back to PoK and hammer out the Livestone. If my success rate is low, I will camp out and start again the next day.

                            P.S. I wouldn't do BD Cultural with anything less than 240 Skill, personally.
                            Angelsyn Whitewings, Cleric of Tunare for 66! Seasons.
                            Grandmistress Smith - 300, Grandmistress Tailor - 300, Potter - 300, Jeweler - 300, Brewer - 200, Baker - 200, Fletcher - 200, Fisherwoman - 169
                            Keyne Falconer, Paladin of Erollisi Marr for 66 Seasons.
                            Grandmistress Baker - 300, Grandmistress Blacksmith - 300, Potter - 200, Brewer - 139, Tailor - 91

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              I have noticed a major increase in the fail rate of Human BD Cultural sine the new UI. I'm a clean 250 human smith and have been making cultural for a long time. Prior to the new UI fail rate was 50/50 and on good nights a bit better. My last four runs of 15 attempts have yielded me 5 armor pieces. I'd say it was changed for the worse

                              Comment

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