Fastest skill ups? and Ugh how many more?

[Pherrot]

Ok, at 189 skill atm, done about 40 combines of shadowscream gauntlets, not a single skill up. I understand this happends but I am wondering 2 things..

1. Does the skill up chance on a particular item have to do with how far away the trivial number is from my skill? AKA, am I going to skill up faster smithing an item thats trivial at 200? or one thats 220? or does it even matter?

2. How many shadowscream attempts before i get in skill range for the really fun stuff? i have 160 wailing/shrieking atm, and farming the swirling is a huge pain, how many more will i need to reach say 240?


Pherrot

[rassy fleetfoot]

ugh too =p

just did 3 (well 4) combine acrylia weapons combines at 196, first was a 2 hander i just found out is trivial already, and then did 20 shadowscream bracer/gorget combines...1 fail, 23 makes, no imps. i'd say yer gonna need a whooooole bnucha swirling shadows.

and yes i'd personally say you will mip faster on things closer to your trivial but you have a chance to imp on ANY combine. my tailor imps on stuff at under 200 that trivs over 250..but he always seems to imp better on things closer to his level.

[ArrakeenNaedShoj]

Your answers, as best I can give them....

1. There is not enough data to definitively answer that question one way or the other. Many people feel that you should attempt the hardest(highest trivial) Item you can afford for the best skillup chance. Many feel that the best skillup chance occurs with Items that trivial close to your current skill level. Many, like me, think that it doesn't matter(that the item combine formula is independant of the skillup formula except to check whether trivial or not). Of course, many people also believe that you should dance a jig before hitting combine, or light a candle, or do your combines in an empty zone, or a full one, or at certain times of the day, etc for the best skillup chances. Without a VERY large dataset or a peek at the code it is impossible to determine what the truth is on this matter, so you should just go with how you feel.

2. A long time ago(like a year and a half), there was an Ogre here that assembled a datasheet for skillup and success rates for all smiths accross the board. He used thousands of logs from several people and came up with the result that the AVERAGE number of combines per skill point from 175ish to 190ish was around 20, and that 190ish to 210ish was around 40, and that from 210ish to 242ish it was around 30, and 242ish to 250ish was around 40. That gives you a total combine number of somewhere around 2100 to go from your current skill of 189 to max 250(less if you have % mod items for smithing). It was a really well done study(it even included modifiers for your INT/WIS/STR) and the consensus from most of the people who checked it on the board was that it was about as accurate as possible given the circumstances. It was of course based on Fine Plate(which maxed at 242 at the time) and they have appearently increased the chance for a skillup above 200 skill twice since then, but that should give you some IDEA of what you will need to do. Of course results will vary, and many of your skill points will be gained in 1 or 2 combines, but you may also have some 100+ combine (I am currently at 346 combines to get out of skill level 193 and counting) runs without any skillups, but that is the best answer I can give you. With a geerlock you only have to get to 240, and if you manage to get a creator's hammer, only to 220? to have your skill maxed.

Hope that answers your question at least a little.

[Kradlum]

What's your main smithing stat? I smith with my STR at between 237 and 255 and my skill-up rate is currently slightly better than 1 skill-up in 9 combines so far, for 63 combines.

It might be worth paying newbies to farm the swirling shadows, if there are any newbies in Shadeweavers. I am going to try next week, offering 40pp/stack, or 2 pieces of Shadow Scream armour.

I found for a while that attempting items about 15 points above my (geerlok modified) skill was getting the best results. Recently I have been making a mix of boots, bracers, collars and gauntlets, and I'm still maintaing a high skill up rate.

As for the "really fun" stuff, I guess that depends on how much plat you have and how willing you are to take a gamble. Friends who have been learning smithing just to make a particular item, e.g. Vale Sewing kit, have found that they have had a success on the first attempt even when 90 points below the trivial. Of course, when I've tried that I've always failed I don't intend to do any ogre cultural armour that trivials over 250 until I have skill of 210 +geerlok, but that is down to my own caution and miserlyness.

[Arghargh]

It took me 1306 combines from 189 to 250. Wis and Str both 255 virtually all the time. Your mileage may vary.

Arghargh Grumble, Darkblood
57 Ogre Shaman of Rallos Zek
Alchemy – 165
Baking – 200
Brewing - 200
Fishing - 200
Fletching – 200
Jewelcraft –200
Potting - 200
Grandmaster Smith - 250
Tailoring – 159

[Pherrot]

I am doing these combines with a wisdom of 305 atm, due to lvl 65 and the PoP AA ability to raise wisdom cap.

Pherrot

[ArrakeenNaedShoj]

Then statistically speaking you should be looking at somwhere below 1306 combines to get from 189 to 250. Since Arghargh had that number with a lower pri stat than you. Of course you could also end up over doubling that number. It really will depend on how the RNG decides to treat you, but that is the best answer anyone can give you.

[Arghargh]

I've seen a formula estimating skills up chances, but I don't know the assumptions behind it, but I'm pretty sure is was skill ups only to skill 100 or so. Something like 1500/X, where X is max of int, wis, or other appropriate stat. So 1500/255 is about 6. 1500/305 is about 5. So with 305 wis, you might see a 1/6 reduction in the number of combines.

That said, RNG > all.

Arghargh Grumble, Darkblood
57 Ogre Shaman of Rallos Zek
Alchemy – 165
Baking – 200
Brewing - 200
Fishing - 200
Fletching – 200
Jewelcraft –200
Potting - 200
Grandmaster Smith - 250
Tailoring – 159

[rassy fleetfoot]

imps

that or they didnt factor abilities over 255 into the tradeskill imp equation.