Serious problems with Elemental Armor..sigh

[Haphern]

Assuming that you choose either of the two unlocked doors, there is no way that you should be having a choice of three that your 1/3 and 2/3 odds are showing.
Yes, the original probability of you choosing the correct door is 1/3 but, after one of the "wrong" doors is opened, the odds are changed simply because you aren't picking from 3 doors anymore.

Simply put, you now have a choice between 2 doors that you have been told that the prize is hidden behind - the unlocked door is no longer part of the equation.

[Laeelin]

Simply put, you now have a choice between 2 doors that you have been told that the prize is hidden behind - the unlocked door is no longer part of the equation.

Thats what fools people... it's not a ramdom door that was removed... it was an INCORRECT door... thats one of the things people miss.

It's always a WRONG door thats removed... Every single time.

Door (B) is NOT removed from the equation, in fact the entire chain of events is set before the first door is opened...

Look at it this way...

(A) - (B) - (C)

you pick (A)

There is a 1/3 chance that you picked the correct door assumeing only one has the prize.. You have a 2/3 chance of picking the loseing door... (DONT forget this part, it's critical)

Now lets play the game as it could go..

Door (A) has the prize in our example...

You pick Door (A):
Host opens Door (B) or (C) and shows nothing, you change your choice to the other and lose.

Your pick Door(B):
Host opens Door (C), You change your choice to Door (A) and win.

Your pick Door(C):
Host opens Door (B), You change your choice to Door (A) and win.

As you can see, if you start with the winning door and change you LOSE ever time, you start with a loseing door and change and you WIN everytime.

1/3 vs. 2/3

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Also, when trying to figure out how it worked when it was first shown to me I made a program to actually do it

http://www.startingdreams.com/doors.php

also, you can go to google or yahoo, and do a search on "monty hall problem" and you will get 1000's of responces from math sites about it (includeing ones with a javascript version of the game to play)

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If you still dont beleve it, make an single player version of the game ...

for example:

1) Take 3 coins of the same size, mark one with a marker.
2) Mix the 3 coins and set one to the side without looking. (original pick)
3) Look at the 2 remaining coins, and as the "host" remove 1 unmarked coin (open an empty door)
4) Change your pick to the remaining coin (change to the last door unpoened)

PLEASE before argueing about it, try it...

IMO this is the coolest math fact there is .. (at least at a level of math i'm able to understand =P .. i'm sure there are cooler things higher up, but i can follow that high)