Arcane Tongues AA - Bad Math?

[Brooh_Hahaha]

Ok, so I'm getting more serious about research and had a thought... (don't ask where I was)

I get the trophy % bonus along with the item % bonus, and how they work/modify you skill. The Arcane Tongues AA (and other TS AAs) reduce you failures by xx%. If this is the case, here is an example equation for figuring success/failure:

Raw Skill + Trophy Mod + Single Item Mod = Skill Level
Skill Level/Trivial Level * 100 = Normal Percentage of Success (NPS)
(Trivial Level - Skill Level)/Trivial Level *100 = Normal Percentage of Failure
note : NPF = 100-NPS

Now, your success or failure is determined by the RNG(1-100) coming up LOWER then your NPS(1-100) or "not in the range of your NPF".

Archane Tounges reduces your failure by xx% so....:

(xx% * NPF) + NPS = Modified Percentage of Success (MPS)

with numbers: Trivial=100 Skill = 50 Item = 10% (nice robe) trophy = 2%
NPS = 56% ((50+5+1)/100)*100
Arcane Modifier = 25%

MPS = (25%* 44%) + 56 = 67%
Beat on the RNG till it makes 67 or below and you succeed.

If so, then Conglation of Bones Trivial = 202, Skill with mods = 185, Arcane = 25%

MPS = (25% * 8) + 185/202 = 2% + 91% = 93% success (RNG beating)

and more importantly

Speed of Salik Trivial=378 Skill = 300 Trophy = 12% item = 10% Arcane = 25%

MPS = (25% * 3) + 366/378 = 97% if rounding at end else 96% if rounding at each step (not sure which is right)

And as i recall (I'm still at work goofing off) Arcane goes to 50% (???)

SO....

Talisman of Wunshi Trivial = 411 Skill = 300 Item = 10% Trophy = 12% Arcane = 50%

MPS = (50% * 10) + 366/411 = 94

And Wunshi would go trivial at base skill of 340 and Arcane AA would go worthless.

Anyone see something I missed? Or do I just have this totally wrong?
If I have it right then I have a speadsheet for figuring out how far I'm pushing my luck as I skill up......

Brooh

Yes, I'm Bored. Yes, I'm an Engineer. Yes, I'm a geek.

[mcdermit]

Check out the calculator link on the main page.

Also, the Trophy is an item. You will get the better of either the trophy skillmod or your robe, not both.

[greblhad]

Here's the way I would think of it.

You have a % chance to fail on a combine, this is based on a randomly generated number, let's say 1-100 cause I haven't a clue, then apply your success mods, let's say you have a 95% chance at success, if the number you get is 4 you would normally fail but you have arcane tounges3 which cuts your failure rate in half, so at this point you get a second roll 1-2, if you get a 1 you really fail.

I haven't a clue how it was implemented but this is how I would do it.

[Ngreth Thergn]

Also,

there is a 5% fail cap, that even the AA will not adjust it past. (skill over trivial can, but not the AA)

The calculator on the site is accurate.

[KyrosKrane]

The success formulae (and the skillup formulae) are fairly well known. If you search the site, you'll find a few posts from some years ago with extensive discussion of how they were derived and what they mean. It's not nearly as straightforward as a ratio between skill and trivial, I fear.

If you're comfortable with computer code, check this out:

http://www.kyros.info/

Scroll down to the tradeskills section, then click on the Statistical Analysis link. The appendix in that PDF shows the VBA code I use in Excel for calculating successes.