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I have an offer from a potter to make a Golden Idol of Mithaniel Marr, with me supplying the imbued diamonds. He claims a success rate of 8 out of 10 with a skill of 209 and a geerlok. According to the recipe page, these trivial at <= 250. Does that seem right? His claimed success rate seems high, but I don't know high level tradeskills that well.
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80% is not out of line, most people greatly overestimate the impact of being 40 points below trivial when you're up in the 200s. A lot of the >250 recipes are way, way over 250, and don't give an accurate picture of the results you'll get from trivials in the 240s like golden idols. Let's run the numbers:
Success = Skill - 0.75*Trivial + 51.5
At worst, a trivial right at 250, your potter will have a 73% success rate. But Geerloks play a pretty impressive role in this range, though. Assuming 209 is the raw skill, we end up at 220 adjusted being plugged into formula. That's an 84% success rate at the very minimum.
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