skillups after the big patch

[YurienStonebow]

ok i am using a vah shir rogue with 114dex and 73wis and 133cha. low stats i know but if the path is really easier then the stats shouldn't play too much of an influence. i started keeping track at 60 after i finished the abysmal sea quests and all combines are done in the same zone at the pottery merchant

unfired smoker 0.639p per attempt

61 sfsfssfssffsfsfssssffsfffs 14s 12f
62 sfssfssffs 6s 4f
63 ssfsfssffsfsfff 7s 8f
64 fffssff 2s 5f
65 ssffsff 3s 4f
66 s 1s 0f
67 ffssf 2s 3f
68 sssfssf 5s 2f
69 ss 2s 0f
70 sfsfs 3s 2f
71 sfsssssssff 8s 3f
72 fsssffs 4s 3f
73 sffsssfssssfssfssfsssssffssfssfffsssffsss 27s 14f
74 s 1s 0f
75 sssssfssssssssssssffffsfssfffffsfsssfffsssfsfsfsss ssf 33s 19f
76 sffssfsssfsssss 11s 4f
77 sffsfssssfssssssfssffssfsfsfssfffsffs 22s 15f
78 ssfssfsf 5s 3f
79 fsssssssssfsssssf 14s 3f
80 sssssfssssfsffffsssfsssfssssssfffsssf 25s 12f
81 ssss 4s 0f
82 ssssfssf 6s 2f

total success 205
total failures 118
total combines 323
total cost 206.397 pp or 9.381 per point


unfired small bowl.....cost per attempt 0.046p per attempt

83 sssssfsfsff 7s 4f
84 ffsffffffssffssfss 7s 11f
85 ssffsssfsff 6s 5f
86 ss 2s 0f
87 ssfs 3s 1f
88 sfsffsfs 4s 4f
89 ss 2s 0f
90 sf 1s 1f
91 ss 2s 0f
92 sfssssfsfsfssssfsfssffss 16s 8f
93 ssfssssffs 7s 3f
94 ssssssssssf 10s 1f
95 ssssssf 6s 1f
96 fsfffssssffssffssfssssfsssss 18s 10f
97 ssf 2s 1f
98 sfsfssssssssssssss 16s 2f
99 ssfffssfssfsf 7s 6f
100 fsssssfssffsssssssssss 18s 4f
101 ssssfss 6s 1f
102 sssfsfsfsss 8s 3f


total success 148
total failure 63
total combines 211
total cost 9.706p or .4853p per point


so in total so far i did (if math is right):

253 success
181 failures
434 total combines
216.103p or 5.145p per point



<rubs fingers>

[YurienStonebow]

second set of information

unfired medium bowl 0.116p per combine

103 sfsffssssssssssssfffss 16s 6f
104 sfssfs 4s 2f
105 ss 2s 0f
106 ssssf 4s 1f
107 ssffssfssf 6s 4f
108 ssfsssffsffsssf 9s 6f
109 ssssssf 6s 1f
110 sfsffsssssssssfssssfssffssssssssfsssssssfffs 33s 11f
111 ssfsfssfssssssssfssfssss 19s 5f
112 sfssfsf 4s 3f
113 sssf 3s 1f
114 sssssfsssssssssss 16s 1f
115 ssssffssssssfssssfssffssssfssssss 26s 7f
116 ssssfssssssfsssfsfsfssffs 18s 7f
117 ss 2s 0f
118 ssfssssfssfssss 12s 3f
119 sssffsfsssssff 9s 5f
120 ssffsfsssfssssffsssfsssfsssssssssffsss 28s 10f
121 sfssssssssss 10s 1f
122 sssssssffs 8s 2f

total success 235
total failure 76 ?!?!?!?
total combines 311
total cost 36.076p or 1.803p per point


unfired mixing bowl 1.825p per combine

123 ssfssssssssfssssss 16s 2f
124 ssssfssssffssssssssfssssffffsssssssssfssssssf 35s 10f
125 ssss 4s 0f
126 sssfffsfs 5s 4f
127 ssssf 4s 1f
128 sfsssssssssfsssfffffsffsss 17s 9f

total success 81
total failures 26
total combines 107
total cost 195.275p or 32.545p per point

totals for this batch
success 316
failures 102
combines 418
pp spent 231.351 or 8.568p per point

grand totals to this point
success 569
failures 283
combines 852
pp spent 447.454 or 6.779p per point


comments? and please someone tell me if my math si wrong. statistics are NOT my strong point....killing thigns and making them into armor is tho

[Sukrasisx]

Thanks for posting these (and for mentioning this thread in the general thread on skillup rates, so I knew to look for it! Statistics -- well, probabilities -- are my strong suit, so let me try some analysis of your data.

114dex and 73wis and 133cha. low stats i know

Yes, very low stats. The CHA is enough to get you best prices, and shouldn't matter for success/failure or skillup rate. I don't think DEX matters either; I think Pottery just uses wis/int. The WIS 73 is quite low; under the old formula, boosting your WIS to, say, 130 would cut the number of expected combines in half. Might be worth investing in some +wis gear! But for analysing your numbers, any WIS is fine. Since you didn't mention it, I'm also going to assume you didn't use a Geerlok.

unfired smoker
total success 205
total failures 118
total combines 323

Assuming pottery is difficulty 4, the old formula would've had you expecting to need about 293 combines to go from 60 to 82 at WIS 73, including 116 failures. It took you about 30 more combines, but that's not too far off. (I.e., it's well within the amount of random variation that could be expected.)

unfired small bowl
total success 148
total failure 63
total combines 211

Going from 82 to 102 on a triv 102 item, wis 73, the old formula said to expect about 306 tries, including 102 failures. So you came out quite a ways ahead on this stretch.

unfired medium bowl
total success 235
total failure 76 ?!?!?!?
total combines 311

The old formula gives an expectation of 365 combines, including 103 failures. You again came out well ahead. You wondered about the failure rate, but it was about 1 in 4, which is about right. Note that the failure rate for items that triv just above your current skill tends to go down as skill rises.

unfired mixing bowl
total success 81
total failures 26
total combines 107

Expectation was 122 combines, including 24 failures. You came out ahead on combines despite a slightly high failure rate.

Overall, your numbers seem to support the claim that skillups in the very low range are easier than before. I'll be interested to see your data if you continue through the mid-100's, which is where I was finding skillups to be much slower than expected.

[YurienStonebow]

woo hoo a response someone actually is reading my thread heheheheh

thnx for the analysis so far. i did forget to add i ahve the cloak of the taruun on which is a 2%mod. hope that doens't screw up the numbers much. i only had one point higher before 100 and onyl get 2 points higher then actual now. i'm still working on it to 188 when i end with sealed vials and adv vials but no data yet

[YurienStonebow]

unfired poison vial 0.372p per combine

129 sf 1s 1f
130 ssfsfsfsssfsfsssssfssssfssssss 23s 7f
131 ssssfss 6s 1f
132 ssssssssssssfsfsssfssfsfssssffffsssssfsfssffssf 33s 14f
133 ssssssfsffssffssssssss 17s 5f
134 sssfsfsssssssssssfsssssfssssssffssffssssffssssssss sfsssf 44s 12f
135 sffsfffsf 3s 6f
136 sssssf 5f 1f
137 sssfssssfssssfsssf 14s 4f
138 ssffssssffssssssss 14s 4f
139 ssssssssssssfsssssssssssssfss 27s 2f
140 ssssfsssssssfsssssssssfssssssfssssfssfsf 33s 7f
141 ssssss 6s 0f
142 sfsssssssssssssssssffffssssffssffsssssssssssssfsss fsfsfsssssssssssssssssssssssfssfsssssssssssssfssss sssssssssssssfssssssfsfsfssssssssssssssssssssffs 126s 22f
143 sssssfssssssssssssssssssssssfssss 31s 2f
144 ssffsssssssfssssssssffsss 20s 5f
145 sssssssssfsssssssfffsfsssssssssssfssssfssfsssssfss sssssssssfssssfsssssssssssssssss 71s 11f
146 sfssfssfssssss 11s 3f
147 ssssssf 6s 1f
148 ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssfssssssssf ssf 50s 3f

total success 541
total failures 111
total combines 652
total cost 240.684p or 12.034p per point

grand totals to this point
success 1110
failures 394
combines 1504
cost 688.138p or 7.909p per point



ok is my math right? if so would someone tell me what it all means?? no clue if this is better or worse then before the major patch. i'm at skill 148 and the change was to 150. should i continue tracking my results to 188?



edited to correct success/failures as posted below

[Sukrasisx]

unfired poison vial
129 sf 1s 1f
130 ssfsfsfsssfsfsssssfssssfssssss 23s 7f
131 ssssfss 6s 1f
132 ssssssssssssfsfsssfssfsfssssffffsssssfsfssffssf 33s 14f
133 ssssssfsffssffssssssss 17s 5f
134 sssfsfsssssssssssfsssssfssssssffssffssssffssssssss sfsssf 44s 12f
135 sffsfffsf 3s 6f
136 sssssf 5f 1f
137 sssfssssfssssfsssf 14s 4f
138 ssffssssffssssssss 13s 4f
139 ssssssssssssfsssssssssssssfss 27s 2f
140 ssssfsssssssfsssssssssfssssssfssssfssfsf 33s 7f
141 ssssss 6s 0f
142 sfsssssssssssssssssffffssssffssffsssssssssssssfsss fsfsfsssssssssssssssssssssssfssfsssssssssssssfssss sssssssssssssfssssssfsfsfssssssssssssssssssssffs 126s 22f
143 sssssfssssssssssssssssssssssfssss 31s 2f
144 ssffsssssssfssssssssffsss 20s 5f
145 sssssssssfsssssssfffsfsssssssssssfssssfssfsssssfss sssssssssfssssfsssssssssssssssss 71s 7f
146 sfssfssfssssss 11s 3f
147 ssssssf 6s 1f
148 ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssfssssssssf ssf 50s 3f

total success 540
total failures 107
total combines 647
...i'm at skill 148 and the change was to 150. should i continue tracking my results to 188?

Definitely keep tracking. What we heard from the fan faire is that nothing should have changed below 175, and from 175 onward it should be easier than before until about 270.

And I find it very interesting that, though your really early potter went faster than expected, things have gotten progressively worse for you. That is, at first you used far fewer skillups than expected, then for a while you used about as many as expected, and now, like me, in the mid 100's you're taking much longer than expected.

Going from 128 to 148 on a triv 148 item, with wis 73, should take about 500 tries, including 108 failures. (Actually a bit fewer than 108 failures because of your +2% skill mod.) Instead it took you 652 with 111 failures. (Side note: you miscounted a few rows. 138 has 14 successes, 145 has 11 fails.) That's 30% more combines across a significant interval, the same sort of rate I was seeing. Are we onto something here?

[YurienStonebow]

ok i edited the lines you were talking about. that shouldn't affect the prices of anything should it?

[YurienStonebow]

Unfired Sealed Poison Vial 2.226p

149 sffssssffsfsss 9s 5f
150 sssffsssffssffsss 11s 6f
151 ssffsssssfssssfsfsssffffssfssssssfssssssssfssfffs 33s 15f
152 ssffsssssssssfsfsssfsfsfsssfffffsfssffsfsssffssfsf sffsfsfsffssfsssssssssssssfsfsssffsfssfffsfsfsssfs fsssss 67s 39f
153 ssssffsfsfssfsfsffsfsssssf 16s 10f
154 sffsss 4s 2f
155 ssfssssssssssfssssfsssffsssff 22s 7f
156 sfsssss 6s 1f
157 sssssfffsssfsfssfsssssssfssfsfssssfsssfssfsfssssss fsssssffssfssfssfsf 49s 20f
158 ssfsssfffsssf 8s 5f
159 ffssssssfsffsss 10s 5f
160 ssfffsssssfsfs 9s 5f
161 ssssssf 6s 1f
162 sfsfsfffsfffsf 5s 9f
163 ssfsssfssffffsssssssssssssffssssss 26s 8f
164 sfsffssfsfssssffssfssffsssssssfffssfssssfssfffsffs fssffsssfssssssffssssssssssssffsssfsssffsssfssssfs fssssssssssssss fssfsssssfssfssssssssfsssssssf 105s 40f
165 ssssssfsssfffs 10s 4f
166 ssssss 6s 0f
167 sssfssfsssffsssfsssssfssssfsssfs 24s 8f
168 ssfssfssssssfssfsfssssss 19s 5f
169 sssssssssssss 13s 0f
170 sss 3s 0f
171 sssssfsssssssssssssssssssfsfsss 28s 3f
172 ssssssssssssffssfffsssssfssssfss 25s 7f
173 ssssssssssssff 12s 2f
174 fsssfsssssfsssssssssssfssfssffsssssssssssssffsssss ssssss 47s 9f
175 sssssssssssssssfsssssssssssffssssssssssss 38s 3f
176 ssssssfsssssfsffssssfssfsssssfssssssssssssssssfsss sssssssssssssssssffssssssfssssssfsssfssssssssss 84s 13f
177 ssssssssfsssssfsssss 18s 2f
178 ssssssssssssssfssssssssfssfsssssssssfsssssssssssss sfsssssss sssssfssssssffssfsssssssssssssssssssssfssfsssffsss sssssssss ssssssssfsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssfssfss sssss 157s 16f
179 ssfsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss sssssssffssssfsssssssssfsfssfsfssssssssfssfsssssss sssssssssssssssssssfssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss sssssfsssssss 151s 12f
180 sssssssssssfsssssssssssss 24s 1f
181 sssfssssssssssssssssssssssss 27s 1f
182 sssssssssssssssfssssss 21s 1f
183 ssssssfssssssssssssfsss 21s 2f
184 sssssssssssssssssssssfssssssssfssssssfssssssssssss ssssssfssssfssssssssssssssssffssssssssssssssssssss sssssssssssssssssfsssssfsssssssssssssssssssssssfss sssssssssssssssssssssssssfsssssssssssssssfsssssfss sfsssssssssssssssssssfssssssssssssssssssssssssssss sssssssssssssssssssssssssssss 164s 15f
185 sssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssfssssfs ssssssss 56s 2f
186 sssfsfssssssssssfssfssssssssssssfsssssfsssssssssss ssssssfssfssssssssssssfssssssssssssssfssssssssssss sssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssfssssssss sssssssfssssssssssssssssssfsssssssssssssfsssssssss sssssssssssssssfsssssssf 208s 16f
187 ssssssssssssssss 16s 0f

total success 1558
total failures 300
total combines 1858
total spent 4135.908p or 106.048p per point

grand total success 2668
grand total failures 694
grand total combines 3364
grand total spent 4804.046p or 38.742p per point

[YurienStonebow]

oh yeah someone PLZ check to make sure i wrote this up orrectly. aside from that......any thoguhts or suggestions about the progression?

[Qaladar Bragollach]

Suggestion: get more wisdom

[YurienStonebow]

wisdom was kept low on purpose