SKilling up from 0 to 202

[Mesaa]

Part of this post contains information from right after the 4/12/05 patch, and the rest is after the 4/20/05 patch.

After the 4/12/05 patch..

Relivant stuff..
Skill : Jewel Crafting
Stat : Int = 325
Starting skill = 0
Skill so far = 17

# of Combines to get to 17 skill = 200 combines.

# of combines to get from 16 to 17 skill = 122 combines.

Fail Rate = Failed on 163 combines.
Relivant stuff
Skill : Jewelry
Stat : 325 (Int)
starting skill = 17
ending skill = 20

#of combines to go from 19 to 20 = 178
# of Failures 101 out of 200

Skill: Jewelry
Stat: 325 (int)
start skill = 21
End skill = 28

Successes = 101 out of 200

21 to 22 = 6 combines
22 to 23 = 80 combines
23 to 24 = 20 combines
24 to 25 = 33 combines
25 to 26 = 1 combine
26 to 27 = 15 combines
27 to 28 = 35 combines
28 to 29 = 3 +?..

This was the break down this time. a little better than the previous 200..

200 more combines done ..

Success = 102 out of 200.

28 to 29 = 43 combines
29 to 30 = 45 combines
30 to 31 = 18 combines
31 to 32 = 31 combines
32 to 33 = 16 combines
33 to 34 = 25 comebines
34 to 35 = 23 combines
35 to 36 = 2 + ?..

After the 4/20/05 patch ( there will also be 2 listing for part of this due to a roll back on The Rathe)

35 to 36 = 8 combines
36 to 37 = 2 combines
37 to 38 = 4 combines
38 to 39 = 3 combines
39 to 40 = 1 combine
40 to 41 = 3 combines
41 to 42 = 3 combines
42 to 43 = 1 combine
43 to 44 = 2 combines
44 to 45 = 5 combines
45 to 46 = 5 combines
46 to 47 = 1 combine
47 to 48 = 1 combine
48 to 49 = 3 combines
49 to 50 = 3 combines
50 to 51 = 9 combines
51 to 52 = 5 combines
52 to 53 = 9 combines
53 to 54 = 12 combines
54 to 55 = 7 combines
55 to 56 = 1 combine
56 to 57 = 1 combine
57 to 58 = 5 combines
58 to 59 = 8 combines
59 to 60 = 1 combine
60 to 61 = 2 combines
61 to 62 = 2 combines
62 to 63 = 5 combines
63 to 64 = 5 combines
64 to 65 = 1 combine
65 to 66 = 12 combines
66 to 67 = 5 combines

The following few combines will have a number in () this number is the amount combines before the server crash and subsequent roll back.

67 to 68 = 15 (3) combines
68 to 69 = 3 (6) combines
69 to 70 = 21 (3) combines
70 to 71 = 13 (2) combines
71 to 72 = 1 (4) combines
72 to 73 = 1 (4) combines
73 to 74 = 9 (2) combines
74 to 75 = 6 (1) combines
75 to 76 = 1 (2) combines
76 to 77 = 5 (6) combines
77 to 78 = 4 (2) combines
78 to 79 = 3 (2) combines
79 to 80 = 6 (3) combines

Back to normal now

80 to 81 = 3 combines
81 to 82 = 3 combines
82 to 83 = 10 combines
83 to 84 = 7 combines
84 to 85 = 1 combine
85 to 86 = 6 combines
86 to 87 = 1 combine
87 to 88 = 3 combines
88 to 89 = 10 combines
89 to 90 = 1 combine
90 to 91 = 2 combines
91 to 92 = 4 combines
92 to 93 = 9 combines
93 to 94 = 19 combines
94 to 95 = 3 combines
95 to 96 = 1 combine
96 to 97 = 2 combines
97 to 98 = 6 combines
98 to 99 = 2 combines
99 to 100 = 2 combines
100 to 101 = 4 combines
101 to 102 = 4 combines
102 to 103 = 19 combines
103 to 104 = 3 combines
104 to 105 = 3 combines
105 to 106 = 10 combines
106 to 107 = 2 combines
107 to 108 = 13 combines
108 to 109 = 3 combines
109 to 110 = 2 combines
110 to 111 = 1 combine
111 to 112 = 9 combines
112 to 113 = 10 combines
113 to 114 = 4 combines
114 to 115 = 12 combines
115 to 116 = 4 combines
116 to 117 = 2 combines
117 to 118 = 10 combines
118 to 119 = 6 combines
119 to 120 = 3 combines
120 to 121 = 6 combines
121 to 122 = 5 combines
122 to 123 = 12 combines
123 to 124 = 1 combine
124 to 125 = 23 combines
125 to 126 = 5 combines
126 to 127 = 1 combine
127 to 128 = 3 combines
128 to 129 = 2 combines
129 to 130 = 2 combines
130 to 131 = 1 combine
131 to 132 = 5 combines
132 to 133 = 19 combines
133 to 134 = 8 combines
134 to 135 = 30 combines
135 to 136 = 4 combines
136 to 137 = 2 combines
137 to 138 = 8 combines
138 to 139 = 1 combine
139 to 140 = 51 combines
140 to 141 = 1 combine
141 to 142 = 22 combines
142 to 143 = 22 combines
143 to 144 = 14 combines
144 to 145 = 7 combines
145 to 146 = 2 combines
146 to 147 = 23 combines
147 to 148 = 7 combines
148 to 149 = 27 combines
149 to 150 = 18 combines
150 to 151 = 3 combines
151 tp 152 = 2 combines
152 to 153 = 2 combines
153 to 154 = 3 combines
154 to 155 = 4 combines
155 to 156 = 1 combine
156 to 157 = 8 combines
157 to 158 = 50 combines
158 to 159 = 30 combines
159 to 160 = 2 combines
160 to 161 = 13 combines
161 to 162 = 4 combines
162 to 163 = 17 combines
163 to 164 = 4 combines
164 to 165 = 24 combines
165 to 166 = 29 combines
166 to 167 = 16 combines
167 to 168 = 29 combines
168 to 169 = 9 combines
169 to 170 = 57 combines
170 to 171 = 12 combines
171 to 172 = 30 combines
172 to 173 = 56 combines
173 to 174 = 16 combines
174 to 175 = 30 combines
175 to 176 = 15 combines
176 to 177 = 12 combines
177 to 178 = 11 combines
178 to 179 = 1 combine
179 to 180 = 3 combines
180 to 181 = 71 combines
181 to 182 = 4 combines
182 to 183 = 60 combines
183 to 184 = 1 combine
184 to 185 = 38 combines
185 to 186 = 31 combines
186 to 187 = 3 combines
187 to 188 = 14 combines
188 to 189 = 1 combine
189 to 190 = 63 combines
190 to 191 = 12 combines
191 to 192 = 21 combines
192 to 193 = 20 combines
193 to 194 = 18 combines
194 to 195 = 28 combines
195 to 196 = 51 combines
196 to 197 = 21 combines
197 to 198 = 20 combines
198 to 199 = 11 combines
199 to 200 = 7 combines
200 to 201 = 18 combines
201 to 202 = 30 combines
202 to 203 = 68 combines
203 to 204 = 35 combines
204 to 205 = 18 combines
205 to 206 = 23 combines
206 to 207 = 14 combines
207 to 208 = 26 combines
208 to 209 = 10 combines
209 to 210 = 9 combines
210 to 211 = 18 combines
211 to 212 = 27 combines
212 to 213 = 19 combines
213 to 214 = 7 combines
214 to 215 = 7 combines
215 to 216 = 65 combines
216 to 217 = 6 combines
217 to 218 = 42 combines

Will post more later on.

[Mesaa]

Had to make a second post something is messing up when I try and edit my first one.

218 to 219 = 200 combines ( guess this was the change here)
219 to 220 = 10 combines
220 to 221 = 28 combines
221 to 222 = 6 combines
222 to 223 = 12 combines
223 to 224 = 8 combines
224 to 225 = 10 combines
225 to 226 = 208 combines ( thanks SOE)
226 to 227 = 8 combines
227 to 228 = 49 combines
228 to 229 = 12 combines
229 to 230 = 44 combines
230 to 231 = 23 combines
231 to 232 = 90 combines
232 to 233 = 24 combines
233 to 234 = 33 combines
234 to 235 = 75 combines
235 to 236 = 4 combines
236 to 237 = 76 combines
237 to 238 = 76 combines
238 to 239 = 55 combines

Increased Int to 335

239 to 240 = 67 combines
240 to 241 = 43 combines
241 to 242 = 43 combines
242 to 243 = 54 combines
243 to 244 = 9 combines
244 to 245 = 35 combines
245 to 246 = 42 combines
246 to 247 = 35 combines
247 to 248 = 73 combines
248 t0 249 = 6 combines
249 to 250 = 10 combines

And from what I read all combines 250 to 300 will be 15% increased.. lets see.

250 to 251 = 18 combines
251 to 252 = 12 combines
252 to 253 = 2 combines
253 to 254 = 4 combines
254 to 255 = 54 combines
255 to 256 = 87 combines
256 to 257 = 23 combines
257 to 258 = 19 combines
258 to 259 = 76 combines
259 to 260 = 115 combines
260 to 261 = 8 combines
261 to 262 = 21 combines
262 to 263 = 13 combines
263 to 264 = 23 combines
264 to 265 = 15 combines
265 to 266 = 1 combine
266 to 267 = 18 combines
267 to 268 = 50 combines
268 to 269 = 124 combines
269 to 270 = 40 combines
270 to 271 = 30 combines
271 to 272 = 122 combines
272 to 273 = 18 combines
273 to 274 = 17 combines
274 to 275 = 43 combines
275 to 276 = 5 combines
276 to 277 = 86 combines
277 to 278 = 54 combines
278 to 279 = 20 combines
279 to 280 = 82 combines
280 to 281 = 104 combines
281 to 282 = 282 combines (THANKS AGIAN SOE)
282 to 283 = 32 combines

Int increased to 355

283 to 284 = 103 combines
284 to 285 = 70 combines
285 to 286 = 12 combines
286 to 287 = 30 combines

Int increased to 425

287 to 288 = 161 combines
288 to 289 = 2 combines
289 tp 290 = 24 combines
290 to 291 = 33 combines
291 to 292 =11 combines
292 to 293 = 44 combines
293 to 294 = 26 combines
294 to 295 = 25 combines
295 to 296 = 11 combines
296 to 297 = 26 combines
297 to 298 = 63 combines
298 to 299 = 89 combines
299 to 300 = 5 combines

Done with JC , onto smithing..

[Sklak]

Just looking at skillup from 190 to 220 yesterday, for comparison to Jewelcraft run I did (365 WIS, details posted in General):

Mesaa (325 INT): 861 combines for 30 skillups from 190 to 220
Sklak (365 WIS): 758 combines for 30 skillups from 190 to 220

Doesn't look like my run was a fluke. Total skillups required, in the range expected to benefit most from the patch, appears to have increased by about 10+%, rather than decreased by 15+% as was expected.

Statistically, these 2 trials demonstrate a less than 2.5% probability that skillups from 190-220 are 15% or more easier than pre-patch, assuming Jewelcraft is "Hard" per formula here on eqtraders. (If Jewelcraft is coded in "Easy" category, and skillups really are 15+% easier post patch, Mesaa and I should be buying lottery tickets rather than doing skillups...)

To summarize vs. old formula expectations of 190-220 skillup combines, with Jewelcrafting where it is very easy to find vendor recipes that are only a couple points above your current skill:

Observed Expected "Hard" Expected "Easy"
325 primary stat: 861 ~770 combines ~610 combines
365 primary stat: 758 ~700 comines ~604 combines

So ... either they've invented the new category "Super Hard" difficulty "4" just for Jewelcrafting... or else it appears the new formula is making skillups harder from 190-220, rather than easier as promised. Very small chance that skillups are significantly easier.

2 people ending up with over 1600 combines required for these 60 skillup points would have happened about 27% of time under old formula assuming Jewelcraft is "Hard" (and about 1% of the time if Jewelcraft was "Easy").

Though this data set is still not enough data to be conclusive whether new formulas are making things harder, it is sufficient to show that a ~15% promised reduction in "Total" combines is extremely unlikely.