Trivial item failure rate changed?

[ohno]

I was wondering what the scoop is on trivial item failures now that it's been patched.

I've looked through the forum and can't find it anywhere. I know it used to be a global 5% failure rate minimum but suspect that has been changed now.

Anyone have any information on this?

I recently got 69/80 successes on a 135 trivial item (fish rolls) with a skill of 135 in baking. Anyone else have any other information?

[Ilona]

I have made somewhere in the region of 400-500 leather paddings with 250 skill. I have not failed one yet, since that patch.

[andyhre]

I have made a similar number of leather pads (maybe more) at a much lower skill, in the 120-131 range, and it feels like my failure rate has dropped downt o about 2%. It certainly is well below what it was.

[Kittyda]

Skill failure

I'm not sure on the exact text, but it can be summarized as such:

Items that are trivial at 200 points or more below your current skill level are no-fail combines.

The failure percentage increases from that point on, but I'm not sure what the cap is, or if there is even a cap in existance.

For example:

With a 210 skill, anything that trivializes at 10 or lower will be a no-fail combine. Something that trivializes at 30 will have a lower failure rate than something that trivials at 50.

Hope that helps.

[Ixiola]

Limited sample size, but I did 6 stacks of dust of tunare combines since the patch with effective max 252 Pottery skill, and saw about half the failure rate I was used to.

[Xenephex]

I did 8 stacks of heady kiolas with a brewing of 221. Failed 1. Seems to be working as advertised.

[ohno]

Great information! Thank you guys!

So anything 200 points trivial below your effective skill is no fail i.e. 0% failure.

I got 69/80 combines with a 135 trivial at 135 skill for baking which is a 13.75% failure rate. Assuming they're using a sliding scale (BIG assumption) that gives us a 0.0687% additional chance of failure / point above your effective skill - 200.

E.g. You're making fish fillets which have a trivial of 82 and you're current skill level is 135. If my theory is correct then you should have a 0.000687 * 82-(135-200) = 0.100989 = 10.0989% chance of failure on these items.

I suspect that my original sample is slightly off though since it's so small and that the actual trivial of items at your skill level is 1/8 = 0.125 => 12.5%. Assuming this is true, the marginal failure rate should be about 0.000625. That would give me 0.000625 * 82-(135-200) = 0.091875 = 9.1875% failure on fish fillets.

I'll try to verify these numbers later on today.

My wondering mind has another interesting question, however, do AA modifiers apply to the trivial failures formula now? They did not in the past but figured I'd ask anyways.

Mmmmm.... coffee

[andyhre]

By the pre-patch formula, I compute a 135 skill and a 135 trivial ought to result in 15% failure. Your numbers are in line with those and nothing that was promsied seem to indicate we should expect that to change much.

If I had to guess what changed, I'd say the following.

Here is how I understood the formula to look pre-patch:

=MAX(5,MIN(95,IF(Trivial>=68,(skill-(Trivial*0.75))+51.5,skill+66-Trivial)))*0.01

It's complicated, but in essence this said that if the formula gave a success rate of >95%, cap it at 95% (and if it gave less than 5%, floor it at 5%). Now I expect the formula is something like

=MAX(5,MIN(NEW FORMULA,IF(Trivial>=68,(skill-(Trivial*0.75))+51.5,skill+66-Trivial)))*0.01


And the NEW FORMULA is probably like:

95% + Min(5%,5%*(skill-Trivial)/200)
Note that when Skill-Trivial>=200, this gives you a 100% chance, and if Skill-Trivial<200, you get a staight line approaching 100% from 95% over the very trivial range.

But within the bounds set by the main formula, i.e., when the old formula gave a less than 95% success chance, I don't think we should expect to see much different.,