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First off, 250 is the maximum skill level. There is some uncertainty as to what the maximum effective skill level is, but, generally 242+Geerlock is seen as being the best you can do at this time. This gives you an effective skill level of 254.
Another actually: 240 + 5% = 252, so 240 would be as high as you would have to go to get the 'best chance' to make something if you are holding a geerlok (or trophy).[*]
There are a few who believe that the effective skill cap could actually go to 254 which is where the 242 number comes from, but the vast majority agree on the 252 number.
* There are some really uber NODROP items that actually add 15% to your skill, but us regular folks will probably never see them.
Don't get those 15% items, they are evil. When you say " i have 250 skill" everyone respects you. When you say "I have 240 skill with 5% geerlok" everyone figures that it's close enough. When you say "I have 220 skill with a 15% item" then people ask you why on earth you got the item if you're not gonna max out that particular tradeskill. As a proud owner of 2 such items (smithing and tailoring) I'm still trying to figure out how to tell my guild that 250 is worse than 240 with 5% geerlok and that 220 with 15% is the best success rate I can get.
On a side note, it's amazing how people spend thousands of pp to max their skill when 240 and 220 is enough. Not that I'm any different, just trying to figure out what drives me to spends tens of thousands pp to get my already maxed pottery (246) one point higher.
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