My skillup info -- All is working fine

[Grimina]

I know folks have been saying that the skillup rate had been nerfed with this patch (as is often said after patches) so I kept track of all my combines today while raising brewing. I did 8 batches of 100 combines. Each batch took 20 minutes and I took a 10 minute break between batches.

1st --- 5 / 201-205
2nd --- 7 / 206-212
3rd --- 5 / 213-217
4th --- 5 / 218-222
5th --- 6 / 223-228
6th --- 3 / 229-231
7th --- 4 / 232-235
8th --- 6 / 236-241

That's 800 combines for 41 skillups or ~ 20 combines per skillup. The worst point to get was 232 which took ~60 combines, but I got 233 and 234 soon after. My wis is 255 and I did not have a geerlok equipped. Later I'll go through my log and figure out how many failures/successes that was and post it.

I suppose this could have gone in brewing section, but I feel it fits in general as well, as a large sample showing that all is well on the skillup front at least where brewing is concerned.

I hope that was helpful, and brings a little hope.

[Memamen]

I had a horrible run the other day, made ~500 Hero brews and did not get a single skill up with 240 wis

[Clampinus]

Skill-up rates I have gathered atm from me and friends I can trust are (since patch) :

38 shadowscream combines and no skill-ups at 188 smithing (280 INT)
80 minotaur hero brew combines at 201 brewing and one skill-up (220 INT)
200 minotaur hero brew combines at 204brewing and one skill-up (318INT)

Atm, I'm holding on to my tinkeringg drops and NOT doing anymore skill-ups until we have more information.

Anyone else have any real data to sumbit ?

[Ilona]

The skill on the left is the skill Dea was at when doing the combines. Ie from point 188 to point 189 took 10 attempts, and from 189 to 190 took 86 attempts:

192: 19
193: 12
194: 49
195: 1
196: 24
197: 37
198: 17
199: 36
200: 4
201: 2
202: 11 and counting

Before the patch, I had done one combine at 192 skill, the rest have been since the patch.

This is smithing information.

Sorry this is reposting some of the information from RN forum... but since it's a question of skilling up since the patch I thought it was appropriate.

[Xenephex]

I've been skilling up brewing on hero brews both before and after the patch. My int is 197. I got to just about 200 skill before the patch and I am now at 216.

I don't keep precise records, but I do my skill ups in batches of 80 and I was typically getting 3 or 4 skill ups per batch pre-patch. I am getting 3 or 4 skill ups per batch post-patch.

I did have a run of 120 without a skill up post-patch (my worst stretch since 188), but I also got 3 skill ups on one stack of 20 combines post-patch (my best stretch since 188l). Overall, I detect no significant difference in skill up rates.

[Tinile]

All of the above complaints of numerous combines without skill ups are during the "Hell Range" of tradeskilling. Expect to do twice as many combines from about 190 to 220. I got stuck at many points in many skills in that level range, way before this patch. It is Normal!

[lonewylfe]

Too normal :P which is why I'm stuck at 217 fletching after more than 500 acrylia arrow and at least 7 nightmare bow combines and maybe even some mithril (can't remember that far back :P)

At least my druid's baking is going well

[Knomercy]

I did a batch of 100 shadowscream combines (bracers).

Skill was 190. Strength was at 305. Int was at 303.

100 combines and I got 2 skill ups.

Did 60 tinkering combines and got 3 skill ups tho, so im happy. 337 Tinkering now.

[Tinile]

337 Tinkering now.

:shock:

[Itek]

Yes, virginia, you can do 200 combines and not get a single skill up. (especially in the 180 to 250 range) Tis not broken. (well, no more broken than before) *grin*

I've done 100 Mino Hero Brew and not got a single point.

Then turned around and gotten 3 points in the next stack. (boy was I mad, I had bought a TON of ingredients and hit 248 in the first stack)

Given a 50 / 50 chance on a trophy combine what are the odds that someone would fail 14 times in a row? 1 in 16,384

That's pretty unlikely.

Now let's figure out how many people have attempted tradeskill trophies...

It's bound to happen to SOMEBODY!! (There's a post by someone it has happened to, look below for it.)

Odds of winning the powerball(tm) lottery are 120 MILLION to one. It averages one winner every 4 to 6 weeks.

For everyone that says "I did 80 shadowscream attempts and got no skill" there's probably 3 people that did 80 shadowscream attempts and got 3-4 points of skill. (Most likely they are also grumbling about how few skill ups they got.)

Say the odds of a skill up are 1 in 20 in the 180-250 range.

(19/20) ^ 80 = .0165

There is a VALID CHANCE of 1.65% of those making 80 attempts with a 1 in 20 chance of a skill up getting NONE!!

People are generally BAD at math, and even worse at determining the expectation of random number generators.

Two classic examples.

How many people, selected at random, is the "break even" expectation for two people in the group to have the same birthday?

Between 50 and 51.

Second has to do with expectation and pricing of "games"

If you play a game where you flip a coin and you continue to flip the coin as long as heads comes up. When tails comes up the "house" pays off.

If tails comes up on first toss you get 1 betting unit (dollar)
If tails comes up on Second Toss you get 2 betting unit (dollar)
Third = 4
Fifth = 8
and so on, continuing to double the winnings on each successive heads throw.

How much should you PAY at the start to begin the game? (i.e. you hand the house a 20 dollar bill, if you throw heads first time you only get 1 dollar back)

The answer is....

An infinite amount of money is NOT ENOUGH for the house to risk this game. Because no matter how much you bet, you could potentially win far more. (if your luck holds out)

(then there are the methods of determining based on how much the house is willing to pay out what the game is actually worth, but threads have been locked before for dealing with the specifics of such)

There is no nerf. It's all in your mind. Literally. Your perceptions of expectation are coloring the data. Did you realize that there was MORE than a one percent chance you would get no skills in a run of 80 attempts? Probably not. Had you gotten 5 skills instead of the "expected average" of 4 would you have come and said "they BUFFED smithing skill up rates" ? Probably not again. Had it fully gone the other way and you got _8_ instead of 4 as opposed to _0_ instead of 4.... would you have submitted a /bug or /feedback that smithing was broken? Hardly. Yet the odds of getting 8 are exactly the same as getting 0. (Bell curve distribution.... now the odds of getting 80 skill in 80 attempts.... 8x10^105) *boggle*

Hopefully it's not the end of the world. Hopefully you will continue to work on tradeskills like the rest of us.

77k (figuring 5.5k an attempt) on a fletching trophy... That's dedication. Or insanity.

[Maesembra]

Just random information

Smithing - Shadowscream Bracers
Starting skill 202
50 combines
3 skill ups

High Stat INT at 235

I've been averaging about 1 skill up per 20 since hitting 188, so no real changes to report.

[kekenewah]

Tailoring skill ups

I did 48 ribbon combines and got 6 skills ups 2 days ago. This was a much better skill up rate then I got with Acrylia studded items in the past.
I went from 161 to 167. I then did 8 high elf robe combines with no skill ups.

[Kritta]

337 Tinkering now.

Hee hee.