RNG and zoning?

[Enchanter]

I had a bit of bad luck yesterday working jewelcraft at the Deepfacet Shop in PoK. I was up to 120 combines with no skillup on platinum / malachite rings at skill 216 (not including geerlok). I seemed to have more than average failures, so I wasn't even close to breaking even.

I mentioned this to a friend, and he said (paraphrased) "Just zone." I was a bit confused at first, but found out that some people believe that it helps reset a bad streak in the Random Number Generator. Have the rest of you found this to be true?

If it makes a difference, I moved to Thurgadin to continue my crafting, and although 40 more combines still hadn't allowed for a skill up at least my failure rate decreased enough to not be costing me an obscene amount of platinum.

[Unidin]

The RNG has some level of randomness, and zoning shouldn't effect it. Everyone has thier own superstitions about it.

[Xorshaik]

Hell, I'd piss on a spark plug if I thought it'd do any good!

[DaluinRizzo]

Actually he is right

Zoning CAN have an effect on the RNG due to many reasons:

1) Each zone is running on a different physical server, the RNG of course is part of the code on a given server. Since this is the case, each server's RNG is currently in a different pattern cycle (see #2)

2) The amount of mobs (and other npcs), players, and other things can and do effect the rate at which the RNG is executed. There is no such thing as a true random number on a computer, and most pseudo RNG's (like the one in EQ) have a mathmatical pattern. How frequently this pattern cycles is completely relative to the number of times it is executed. More NPC/MOB requires the AI to use the RNG more frequently, as do more players doing anything that also uses the RNG.

3) Depending on how they seed the RNG, even the time of day can have an effect...

So ummm, yes, changing zones can have an effect. Only problem is without some very heavy statistics knowledge, you can't easily predict what the effect will be. Might be better, could be worse... But for sure it is never truely random...

[Aandaie]

The short answer is:

No, its random.

[saraden]

RNG

Actually not every zone is on a different physical server. One machine runs a few zones but they are set up based on how busy those zones are. Verant actually once said the number of physical servers it used, though this was prior to PoP. As I recall it was something like 1500 machines. With around 50 server worlds and more than 100 zones prior to PoP clearly that is not one machine per zone.

[Anofalye]

*giggles*

Here are my own supersticions...


Do many things, click on sense heading, mem a spell(the *%?/%$/ C3 begger maybe) and cast it, cast your enchant while u work the skill.

I Feel VI have a "munchkin reapeting detectors" to make sure someone doing only 1 or a few things is jammed and can`t progress, the more random things you do, the better. Zoning will undoubtelly reset such "detectors" if they do exist.

But...this is like saying Extra Terrestial beeings exits...well...someone can have his ideas...his convictions...but to prove it...it is a bit harder! :P

At the very least, it change the focus of my mind and even if much longer in real time, it help my mental sanity.

Also you could work a useless skill in the same time. For exemple you could get a "permanent" dot/disease and work on bind wound over and over while doing this, don`t go dying althought, bring enought band aids. Kithicor Undead have some permanent dot/disease that work pretty slow (less dangers to be surprised and died).

[KyrosKrane]

Re: *giggles*

Here are my own supersticions...

<snip>

I Feel VI have a "munchkin reapeting detectors" to make sure someone doing only 1 or a few things is jammed and can`t progress, the more random things you do, the better. Zoning will undoubtelly reset such "detectors" if they do exist.

There was actually a thread on the old boards about superstitions. Two that I've found are as follows:

1) When doing many identical combines for skillups, don't place the same items in the same slots over and over. Vary the location of the components in the container. One, it keeps you awake and alert! :P Two, I felt (though I've never empirically tested) that I get a better rate of successes when doing this. This might tie in to the "munchkin detector" you mentioned -- VI may be trying to stymie people using macros to do identical combines.

2) Try doing combines while swimming. Yes, I'm dead serious about this. I did a series of combines for skillups that should have yielded about 50-60% success rate. My success rate was more like 90%, and I skilled up in swimming too! I have no clue if the two were related, but now I go swimming whenever I can.

[Lyane]

Personal superstitions: Lag is a Bad Thing (tm) when doing tradeskills. I try to face a wall when doing combines, and I try to watch the ping meter for a low(er) number when hitting combine. The results have improved enough for me to be convinced at least, even if I don't have any statistical evidence of it.

Lyane Peredhel
Lost Dragons of Fennin Ro

[Anofalye]

*smile*

*start giggling maddly*

Yes yes, I do change the place where I put my items to combine and I really do feel it help to increase skill!

[Ilona]

I usually try and do my combines in a low-traffic area, and make sure there isn't too much packet loss.
Last night, however, I did some combines despite the packet loss being over 10% most of the time. At starting skill 204, I got 3 robes and 3 skillups in 18 combines. This morning (after being afk trading all night), I got two more skillups in 12 combines, also with high packet loss - the last two skillups last night and the first one this morning were all on consecutive combines, too!

I'd still prefer low packet loss, but I don't think I'll be quite as superstitious about it any more

[kekenewah]

True north is tradeskillers friend

Here is my superstition: I always mem and cast true north then do my combines. I have no hard data that it works.

[PinyonTreedotter]

RNG and zoning?

It is always interesting (and dangerous) to try to figure out the design of EQ. A long time ago, when my enchanter was working JC, I keep track of every combine from the beginning up to the middle of the gold combines. Unfortunately, the original data is gone, but one thing I did test was the autocorrelation of success and skill increases. Both were significant.

This made little sense, because of the large number of random numbers that are likely used by the various NPCs and PCs in a zone. I did most of my JC in Felwithe, and there are not many PCs in the zone, so it is possible I had the complete attention of the RNG. On the other hand, if I were designing the program, I would have the RNG return a vector of values. This vector could be attached to a (N)PC and you would use this until it is used up, then request another vector (standard sort of thing for those of us who have programs using tremendous numbers of random numbers -- uses more memory, but reduces the function overhead considerably). This is even more likely considering that tradeskill random numbers (among others) use single bytes and returning a single (pseudo)random byte is not very efficient.

So, if you have a failure, doing any sort of activity that requires a random number (such as swimming or even spell-casting) would use up the vector and you can try for another (better) vector.

On the other hand, this may all be a bunch of hooey.

[Sevhina]

hmmm

I did most of my practice in Neriak. I always put my reagents in the same slots. Habit I suppose.

Doing jewelcraft is a lot like playing a slot machine. Just because you are on a losing streak does not mean you are "due" for a winning streak. Just log off and try again the next day

[mrjimorg0]

My superstition(s)

1. To burn through random numbers, just do /rand 0 1000. If you get 990+ kick yourself because you just blew a really good number on nothing. If you get 0-100 thank your lucky stars that wasn't a combine! I typically do /random 0 1000 untill I notice a streak of low numbers. When they start going away I do my combines. This has helped, however it might just be coincidence. But, there are 2 types of random numbers that I've seen - pools of balanced numbers and true random. The pools are generated by a random number generated, then checked to make sure that the average and standard deviation are withing acceptable values- pools that are not are thrown out. Truely random is just that- truely random. If they are using checked pools of random numbers then the method decribed above would be effective. But, as always, were left out of the dark
2. Think about the good things you have done recently. If you still fail then its an unjust world! Ok, this hasn't helped much. Must be an unjust world :P
-Marie

150 tailoring
160 brewing
188 pottery
188 smithing
130 jewelcraft
134 baking