Is it possible to go from 1 - 250 on 250 combines?

[Shjekai]

Just curious but do people really think each combine is just random and that some lucky schmo could never miss a skill up? I'm paranoid enough to think that there might be something else going on here. Something in the equation that says you got the last advance in 1 combine this next one is gonna cost ya.

[Krazick]

Possible? -- YES

Likely? - NO WAY IN HECK

You would more likely win 250 straight Single Number Plays at Roulette (on a non-fixed wheel) in Vegas than this. And if you think you can... Go do so, and Buy Sony.

[HoshiAdam]

As my statistics teacher put it - "It is possible, but don't expect it to happen in the lifetime of the universe." Of course, he was talking about something else at the time, but it applies here.

[Phabos]

Possible? Obviously who have never met the sick, twisted, sadistic, cruel tyrant known as the RNG...

*gasp* Wait, what am I saying? I take it back! PLEASE don't condemn me to another 350+ combines before I can get my baking from 202 to 203... Please!!!

Phabos
Drunken, Frustrated Paladin of Brell
Tarew Marr

[EQScott]

I personally don't think so.

I think there is a "double checker" in the system to make sure people don't get lucky on skill-ups. For instance, in brewing...EVERYONE spends a huge amount of time on combines from 190-200. This is not random, I assure you.

I think the ability to "make" an item is random based on your skill. But then again, if it's based on skill, it's not completely random.

For the people who say it's completely random and that 250 in 250 is possible, think about this: you also must admit that it's possible to do an infinte number of combines and remain at skill 0. BECAUSE there is never a 100% chance of a skill-up.

They want us to believe that skill-ups are random, but they are clearly not. There are percentages applied and possibly limits imposed.

[kiztent]

I think there is a "double checker" in the system to make sure people don't get lucky on skill-ups. For instance, in brewing...EVERYONE spends a huge amount of time on combines from 190-200. This is not random, I assure you.

Without disagreeing with your premise, I took brewing to 205 in less than 5 hours of elapsed time - including zoning.

I'd say it's theoretically possible. It's also theoretically possible to never skill up. Worst case I've heard of so far is 1200 non-trivial combines without a skill point.

[Noni DeeCups]

I would not put it past them to include in the equation a must be > and < than x attempts every 10 points or whatever.

[Jaradis Stormcaller]

Even if you had a 90% chance of getting a skill up each time (Which we know is way too high) your odds of getting a skill up each time for 250 tries is 275,025,295,620 to 1.

At a 50% chance of getting a skill up each time (which is still high over the course of 0 - 250) your odds of getting a skill up each time for 250 tries is:
1,809,251,394,333,070,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00 0.00 to 1.


Possible? Yes. Probable? Not even remotely close.

[Chenier]

Worst case I've heard of so far is 1200 non-trivial combines without a skill point.

o - m - g

[Delfontes]

At a 50% chance of getting a skill up each time (which is still high over the course of 0 - 250) your odds of getting a skill up each time for 250 tries is:
1,809,251,394,333,070,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00 0.00 to 1.

That just seems way way too high, so I double checked.....


1.8092513943330655534932966407e+75

I'm not counting zeroes, hehe, looks like you nailed it there, and considering that is a very very generous estimate, it would not be much of a stretch to call it impossible.

[Shjekai]

We've all heard the nightmare runs of 1000 combines without a skillup. What about a lucky sob that happens to get mayb 10 straight skillups in the 200 - 250 range? That's not too much to ask eh? But no one has, to my knowledge, ever had a great run luck that. Best is like 3 skillups in 20 attempts or so.

[Thicket Tundrabog]

Possible... yes.

It's also possible for a monkey pounding randomly on a keyboard to write out Shakespeare's Hamlet, without error, on the first try.

Thicket

[Mridule]

I don't think there is a second check on skill ups...

I think skill ups are purely based on the RNG. I don't think there is an "if(GotSkillUpLastCombine) SkillUpNextCombine=FALSE;" check or anything like that.

This Tuesday while working on tailoring I got two successive skill ups 223 and 224. That helped even out some of the 100+ no skill up runs I have had.

As far as the 1000+ no skill up run - ouchie.

[Praxx]

Actually the answer is quite probably a definitive "no." The reason is because the random number generator is not truly random, and in all likelihood, all possible sequences of 250 random numbers will always produce a set of numbers with a very large deviation.

[kiztent]

Actually the answer is quite probably a definitive "no." The reason is because the random number generator is not truly random, and in all likelihood, all possible sequences of 250 random numbers will always produce a set of numbers with a very large deviation.

That's probably true for 250 consecutive numbers on the same sequence on the RNG, but some people do 10-40 combines at a time...