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I think some folks may have a misconception about how random numbers work. The random number generators (RNG) used in programming are actually quite good. They are not perfect but they do generate numbers that statistically are very close that expected by chance. However, using an RNG can deliver some strange results. Its like roulette, the number 0 comes up one time in 37 on average. But that does not mean it will come up every 37 spins, it may come up 5 times in a row or it may not come up for 200 spins both are unlikely but it does happen. However, if you make 37 million spins you will get very close to 1 million 0s. Chance is the average you will get over lots of tries.
Down to specifics, I went from 168 to 199 in pottery on casserole dishes using 30 stacks and I am doing 200+ on opal steins and getting the same 1 in 20 skill ups. There were times when I had none with 3 or 4 stacks and there were times when I had 2 or 3 from 1 stack. The thing is, people forget the lucky breaks and post the bad ones, so the impression gets around that the RNG is broken. With 255 Wisdom I have found pottery fairly consistent so far at 1 in 20 (up to 210 so far). I am finding simmilar results with my brewer alt.
I also have a GM jeweler and I found that 150-200 it was consistent at 1 point in 20 combines too. From 200 up it gets harder until the last few points were coming at 1 in 50 (with 255 Int). I have a suspicion that the ding rate is 1 in 20 till 200, and then its a one in (current skill 180) chance. So the higher you get the harder it becomes. But this is just the chance to succeed and, assuming the chance is one ding in 2 stacks, getting none from 4 or 5 stacks is possible even if unlikely. Its going to happen to some one and that person is going to post it.
The above assumes 255 Wis/Int. With less there is a fudge factor which reduces your chance of a ding even more. I suspect the fudge is something like: (Wis/255*ding chance) but is may be more complicated and may not yet take account of the fact that Wis can now go over 255. If this is the case it may explain why the Wis >255 folks are having a problem.
So, if you want to be a GM then I suggest you get your Wis to exactly 255 (not over) and persevere you do get there in the end honestly.
Potbeli 250 Jeweling
Biabeli 212 brewing
Kaydra 210 Pottery, 189 smithing
Down to specifics, I went from 168 to 199 in pottery on casserole dishes using 30 stacks and I am doing 200+ on opal steins and getting the same 1 in 20 skill ups. There were times when I had none with 3 or 4 stacks and there were times when I had 2 or 3 from 1 stack. The thing is, people forget the lucky breaks and post the bad ones, so the impression gets around that the RNG is broken. With 255 Wisdom I have found pottery fairly consistent so far at 1 in 20 (up to 210 so far). I am finding simmilar results with my brewer alt.
I also have a GM jeweler and I found that 150-200 it was consistent at 1 point in 20 combines too. From 200 up it gets harder until the last few points were coming at 1 in 50 (with 255 Int). I have a suspicion that the ding rate is 1 in 20 till 200, and then its a one in (current skill 180) chance. So the higher you get the harder it becomes. But this is just the chance to succeed and, assuming the chance is one ding in 2 stacks, getting none from 4 or 5 stacks is possible even if unlikely. Its going to happen to some one and that person is going to post it.
The above assumes 255 Wis/Int. With less there is a fudge factor which reduces your chance of a ding even more. I suspect the fudge is something like: (Wis/255*ding chance) but is may be more complicated and may not yet take account of the fact that Wis can now go over 255. If this is the case it may explain why the Wis >255 folks are having a problem.
So, if you want to be a GM then I suggest you get your Wis to exactly 255 (not over) and persevere you do get there in the end honestly.
Potbeli 250 Jeweling
Biabeli 212 brewing
Kaydra 210 Pottery, 189 smithing