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**Thicket Tundrabog** · 02-07-2003, 07:22 AM

It's only a tiny sample, but I was two for two on Tunarean Soldier combines last night. This is a 250+ trivial, non-POP tailoring combine. I'm a 250 tailor.

Thicket

**Raiyaeq** · 02-07-2003, 10:47 AM

success rate

I went

2/2 on PoP pottery after patch (243 + trophy)
12/20 for misty thicket picnic (250 + trophy)
2/20 for artic wyvern mask (194 and gained 1 skill point)

after Tuesday's patch

**lonewylfe** · 02-07-2003, 11:24 AM

I heard rumors of people getting weird skillups, like 120 to 122, skipping 121 totally. Anybody else hear this?

**burnttoastv** · 02-08-2003, 09:35 AM

I've seen two skillups since Tuesday's patch, one on making a black acrylia halberd and one while doing sickles (on a failure!) that bumped me up to 231, wouldn't have minded seeing it skip a few points and jump up :P . Getting skillups like this for me is rare since I haven't done consistent skillup runs for a few months.

**Cigarskunk** · 02-08-2003, 03:52 PM

My chanter went swimming while wearing her combat gear and zipped from 118 to 126 skill before she even made it from the EK bridge to the bandit camp.

**bana-zir** · 02-09-2003, 03:01 PM

Sample size is way too lot.

7 failures in a row is WAY too low of a sample to make any sort of statement.

I have had (over the past 2 years) several nights where 10 to 20 failures in a row (on items which I mostly succeed, like 75 percent of the time or better.)

I should have learned each time, when you get 2 or 3 failures in a row on items you commonly succeed, then log off, go to sleep and try again in the morning. If you dontdon'ty like log off and go watch a movie, then come back) you will still be getting the super common failures.

This is "working as intended" and is all a part of the RNG. I would say these states last for a good 8 hours at a time.

They also work the same way in reverse, as I have made a full suit of ogre smithed cultural (ac51 bp, etc.) with only 1 item having failures, the vambraces. To top it all off, the vambraces failed 3 times (not in a row). I made the bp, legs, and all other parts of a full suit on the first try.

If you were to say do 1000 combines before and after and you noticed say a 75 percent drop in successes, I may start to say you have something there. But 1000 is still a very small sample.

**Jobrill** · 02-09-2003, 03:54 PM

My Jboots seem to be going slower too.

**Jaradis Stormcaller** · 02-09-2003, 09:39 PM

I made my pottery GM item first try on Weds. I made a Ceramic Incense Burner of Ro as well on Weds. Guildmates made 3 or 4 pieces of Airstrand and Earthweave armor, not sure of attempts but they were very very pleased. So I think it was just a bad luck streak on your part.

**Kaysha Soulsinger** · 02-11-2003, 04:45 AM

A guild Tinkerer was skilling up yesterday from low 160-ish to low 170-ish on recipes that trivialed in the 210-ish range. His success rate was astonishing, he barely had failures.

**Quesci** · 02-11-2003, 06:38 PM

I settled down for a run of 80 Kaladim Constitutional last night. I had nine failures in a row to start off. After the third failure I double checked my recipe (even knowing that if I were wrong I would be getting DNC errors). After the sixth failure I thought it was kind of funny. After the eighth I figured the recipe was broken. I hate partial stacks, so I pressed on and when I finally made one on the tenth try I was amazed. The odds of getting 9 failures in a row on a 45% typical success rate are something like 7 in 10000 (7.567^-4, someone double check my numbers).

When I completed my run I was 44/80, or 55% -- quite a bit above average. It all evens out.

**Kaysha Soulsinger** · 02-12-2003, 04:18 AM

Just number crunching: At a 45% success rate, you face a 55% failure rate. To fail 9 combines in a row equates to 0.55^9 = 0.0046... Inverted, this is once every 217-ish "runs".

**Soulfiend** · 02-12-2003, 05:48 AM

I failed 4 times out of 10 making mature cheese at skill 250, but being a student of maths, I realise that anything is possible when random numbers are used.

**kiztent** · 02-12-2003, 09:19 AM

6/9 on hobgoblin suprises - skill up to 221.

Nothing to see here, move along.

Announcement

Tradeskill combines post Tuesday patch

Tradeskill combines post Tuesday patch

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