How high for 5% failure rate?

[jorigeo]

I'm making an item that trivials at a skill of just 27, thats where my skill is at right now. How much higher do I need to go so that I will have the lowest 5% failure rate on it?

[Wandor]

The 5% failure rate is for any item that is trivial at your current skill in that trade.

[Delfontes]

It is not that simple unfortunately

Here is the generally accepted formula:

Success* = Skill - 0.75*Trivial + 51.5 (rounded up, for Trivial>= 68 )
Success* = Skill - Trivial + 66 (for Trivial < 68 )

To get it to 95% in this case your skill - trivial + 66 needs to be 95.

So I think that means you need a 56 skill for a 27 trivial item.

56-27+66=95.

Isn't math grand?

[Mahlig]

Not sure what the formula is or if there is one. But I remember having a stint while brewing Heady Kiolas (they were trivial by like 20 points). I failed to create them about 40% of the time. Since raising my brewing, I fail them probably less than 5% of the time (failed 2 of my last 100).

[Delfontes]

By that formula it appears that anything under 68 will fail 1/3rd of the time at trivial.

No wonder heady kiolas are hated by tailors, they get to 46 on them, and continue to fail 33 times every 100 combines. I thought at the time I was just very unlucky... so glad I wont have to deal with that again.

[Myrron]

I remember reading here a long time ago something about 2 values per item: one where the item no longer gives skillups (trivial) and one hidden number where the 5% comes into effect. The two values are not always equal, like in the case of the kiolas. I don't know if this is true, or if I am just confusing something else I read, so don't take what I am saying as fact. Just passing along a possibility.

--Myrron

[jeril]

It is not that simple unfortunately

Here is the generally accepted formula:

Success* = Skill - 0.75*Trivial + 51.5 (rounded up, for Trivial>= 68 )
Success* = Skill - Trivial + 66 (for Trivial < 68 )

(smilies fixed)

That doesn't make sense. By that formula, I should have a 70% success rate at trivial 255 items at 210 skill, which seems way too high:

210 - 0.75*255 + 51.5 = 210 - 191.5 + 51.5 = 70

By putting in parenthesis in the most likely place I can get other results, which doesn't make sense either:

with succes = skill - 0.75 * (trivial + 51.5), I get ~-20% success rate (thus 5%) on a trivial 255 item at 210 skill, which makes sense, but with a max skill of 252 I get ~22% success rate, which seems much lower than expected.

I don't know the true trivial values of >250 items, of course, but that doesn't matter, the results are way off no matter if I use 251, 255 or 270.

Anyone care to comment?

[Delfontes]

That doesn't make sense. By that formula, I should have a 70% success rate at trivial 255 items at 210 skill, which seems way too high:

Exactly

Make Mino Hero brews that have a 248 trivial while you are at 210. You will succeed a lot (close to 70%), and it will succeed 95% of the time around 230 (I had strings of 50-60 without fails in the 230's)... going from experience, not from the formula.

This means that things failing 50% of the time at 250 have trivials over 300.

[Cigarskunk]

Good rule of thumb is that once you've cleared trivial by about 20 points for any item that's less than 100 trivial then you'll have your 5% rate consistantly.

Additionally, once you've got your INT/WIS over 150 you'll start seeing you 5% alot sooner.

[Delfontes]

Nitpick on..

Additionally, once you've got your INT/WIS over 150 you'll start seeing you 5% alot sooner.

I assume you mean you will gain skill faster and see 5% faster with higher int/wis because you will have higher skill... just don't want anyone confusing that with 'higher int/wis will improve success rate'. Having brewed drunk with sub 40 int and succeeded just as much as if i had 255, I know for me it doesn't matter.

/nitpick off


Love the Cigar sig

[jeril]

Make Mino Hero brews that have a 248 trivial while you are at 210. You will succeed a lot (close to 70%), and it will succeed 95% of the time around 230 (I had strings of 50-60 without fails in the 230's)... going from experience, not from the formula.

This means that things failing 50% of the time at 250 have trivials over 300.

I seem to have underestimated quite how far above 250 items are. My trade skill of choice is smithing (after I looted a Hammer ironfrost), and this means I can already do much more than I thought at my current skill - no trophy, of course, and probably not PoP armours, but acrylia plate I'll get a pretty high sucess rate on, and even CT armor seems to have trivial below 250 according to the information available. I thought I had a longer way to go than that.

Anyone know approximate trivial on cutting sickles?

[Kulluien]

Yes, and by Ishwar's formulas (see faq forum "What sort of success rates should I expect?", that's where the above formulae are located),

Trivial = Dificulty + 16 (for Dificulty <=50)
Trivial = 4/3 * Dificulty + 2 (for Dificulty > 50)
Success* = Skill +50 - dificulty

so assuming that this "difficulty" is the actual data stored for the item, i.e. both the success rate and trivial were originally generated from this number, the maximum trivial (if 1 byte is given to it, which seems likely) the highest trivial for any item is

Trivial = 4/3 * 255 + 2 = 342

this would, at skill 252 (maximum modified) give you a success rate of
Success* = 252 + 50 - 255 = 47%

So the hardest items would, even at max modified, give you nearly a 50% chance of success (according to this theory).

The trivial for mistletoe sickles is posted under smithing, tools and implements, as >250. Nobody can definitively confirm further than that.

[Kellan]

huh?

Trivial = Dificulty + 16 (for Dificulty <=50)
Trivial = 4/3 * Dificulty + 2 (for Dificulty > 50)

I have never looked through Ishwar's formulas before, but these seem flawed.
The highest trivial the first formula can give is 66 (50 + 16 = 66).
The lowest for the second formula is 70 (4/3 * 51 + 2 = 68 + 2 = 70).
How do we have all the trivial=68 items then?

[Leewei]

Here's my shot at a rule of thumb:

Success* = Skill - 0.75*Trivial + 51.5 (rounded up, for Trivial>= 68 )
Success* = Skill - Trivial + 66 (for Trivial < 68 )

Taken in reverse order:

For items with a trivial point under 68,

95 = Skill - Trivial + 66

Skill - Trivial = 33

i.e. you have a 95% success rate with a skill 33 or more over the item trivial number for low trivials.


For items with a trivial point over 68,

95 = Skill - 0.75*Trivial + 52

Skill - Trivial * 3/4 = 43

1.33*Skill - Trivial = ~57

This one is a bit messier, but in a nutshell if your skill times 1 1/3 is 57 over the trivial number, you're golden.